To be competitive, Virginia Republicans must pivot

When I first got involved in Virginia politics in 2013, the commonwealth had a Republican governor and legislature in Richmond. My, how times have changed.

Since then, the GOP has lost every statewide election. And after each loss, many political scientists and party leaders credited the same thing: changing demographics.

It’s true. The Virginia of today is not the Virginia of 2009, the last year Republicans won statewide.

Our population is more suburban than years past. Nearly all of the state’s population growth this past decade (95%) has occurred in our three largest metropolitan areas, while the rest of the state has largely declined.

Joe Biden actually lost 79 of Virginia’s 95 counties. But he won 18 of Virginia’s 20 most populous localities — the suburbs.

Also, our state population is more ethnically diverse than years past. According to 2019 Census data, 39% of the state population is now ethnic minority, up from about 31% just nine years ago. Nearly one out of every 10 eligible voters in Virginia is an immigrant.

While many may view these demographic changes as a death knell for the GOP, it doesn’t have to be. This year’s Republican gains among minority voters in places such as Florida and Texas show that improvement is possible. There are also other trends that suggest political realignment is possible, as the differences between white and minority Democrat views are growing wider.

For example, minorities are far more moderate than the white liberals that control the Democratic Party. Last year, 71% of Black Democrats self-identified their political views as either moderate or conservative. Only 29% of Black Democrats self-identified themselves as liberal, compared to 55% of white Democrats.

In addition, white Democrats are far less religious than Black and Hispanic Democrats. About 90% of Black Americans and 74% of Hispanic Americans identify as religious compared to 57% of white Democrats, down from 75% in 2009.

I don’t have all the answers for the GOP but I do know this: Virginia Republicans must invest significant resources into engaging suburban and minority residents, it must welcome moderate voters, and it must be more disciplined with messaging to those voters.

Engaging suburban and minority voters is not hard, but it takes time, humility and the right tone. People don’t care how much you know until they know how much you care. Party leaders and candidates must show up and listen year-round, and set aside significant resources to get your message to those communities.

Based on the data, minority and suburban voters are more moderate. While my views are conservative, the GOP must make sure there is a home for moderates in the Republican Party.

Lastly, the GOP and its candidates must tighten up its messaging for a more suburban and minority audience. As I have campaigned over the last few years, I’ve spent too much time correcting false assumptions about the party’s stance on religious freedom or immigration or racism.

If we’re going to stand for religious freedom, the message must be consistently welcoming of all faiths. If we claim to be the party of law and order, we must have a message that embraces families that follow the rules to immigrate here. If we are to be the party of Abraham Lincoln, we must have zero tolerance for racism. As defenders of equal justice and dignity for every human life, we cannot flirt with alt-right ideology or white supremacy.

After another post-election defeat, the Republican Party of Virginia must reevaluate its standing in a state that has left us behind. Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity.

D.J. Jordan grew up in Hampton Roads, and now lives in northern Virginia. He served as chairman of the Virginia Board of Social Services in 2016 and 2017, and unsuccessfully ran for House of Delegates as a Republican in 2019.

Last year, 71% of Black Democrats self-identified their political views as either moderate or conservative. Only 29% of Black Democrats self-identified themselves as liberal.