Accurate Census figures crucial

Widespread undercount could have serious financial ramifications for state, region

The more we learn about the 2020 Census, the more it sounds like bad news for Virginia — especially our poorest cities. Our nation’s founders realized the importance of knowing how many people live here and the basics of what those people are like. That’s the key to knowing how the nation is growing and changing, and what those changes might mean for good governance.

In the Constitution, the founders mandated an official census every 10 years. This year’s count, for reasons including the COVID-19 pandemic and inadequate support from Washington, promises to be one of the most inaccurate.

The Census results are vital for several reasons. The data tell us how many people live in the United States and where they reside. It tells us about their age, gender, income, education, marital status and other facts that are crucial for understanding our communities and their needs.

Much is at stake, because the data determine how much federal money goes to communities to help with a host of needs including schools, health care, housing, food assistance, transportation and higher education. The people most likely to go uncounted are those with the greatest needs — children, poor people, homeless people, minorities and those living on the margins of society. Not counting significant numbers of those people in need will keep essential funds from flowing into the places where they live.

That’s bad news across the commonwealth. The George Washington Institute of Public Policy estimates that Virginia may lose up to $2,000 in federal funds for every person who wasn’t counted. That adds up to millions of dollars over the coming decade.

In Hampton Roads, as elsewhere, the undercount was worse in cities that need help most. In Norfolk, with its 20% poverty rate, it’s estimated that only 65% of residents have been counted. In Portsmouth, with a 17% poverty rate, the rate is thought to be 66.1%. Both rates are worse than in 2010. Virginia Beach and Chesapeake, the region’s cities with the lowest poverty rates, reported the highest Census response rates.

What this all means for Norfolk and Portsmouth and other cities struggling to help their poorer citizens is that federal help over the next 10 years probably will be inadequate. Public service agencies in those cities, already stretched then, will be under even more strain.

There’s another key reason accurate Census figures are vitally important. They are used to make our democracy truly fair and representative as we shape our congressional and legislative districts and allocate Electoral College votes. Those who go uncounted likely will be unrepresented, and the old order will retain power even if it is no longer a true majority. That’s why the Census can become politicized, as it apparently has this year.

The pandemic posed problems for this year’s Census just as it was getting under way. For the first time, people could respond online, and many took advantage of the opportunity. Unfortunately, though, the people who tend to go uncounted also are less likely to have access to reliable internet. The Census Bureau was slow to hire, train and deploy enumerators — temporary workers who go door to door to find those who have not returned forms. Those enumerators worked hard at a tough job, but there simply was not enough time to reach everyone.

And yet, the Trump administration refused to extend the deadline to complete the count. That refusal was part of the administration’s pattern of actions that looked a lot like efforts to prevent a full, accurate count. The unsuccessful effort to put a citizenship question in the Census made some immigrants wary of being counted. Now, for the first time ever, the administration has gone to the Supreme Court for permission to exclude undocumented immigrants even if they have been counted.

An accurate Census is a vitally important. A widespread undercount will have negative consequences for many years. Unfortunately, our poorest cities are likely to suffer most.