All Virginians wanting vaccine should have it by end of year, Northam says

Virginia hopes to immunize everyone who wants a coronavirus vaccine before the end of the year, Gov. Ralph Northam said Wednesday.

But based on estimates of how many people would need to be vaccinated daily, that goal might be a stretch.

So far, the state has received 481,550 total doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Over 116,200 shots have been given, with only about 2,200 Virginians having received both doses of the two-part vaccine. That total is low because first and second doses are spaced three or four weeks apart, depending on the maker.

Roughly 24% of the doses the state has obtained over the course of three weeks have been administered.

Northam acknowledged that many residents feel they’ve been left in the dark about when it will be their turn and where they can get vaccinated.

“For now, unless you work in

healthcare or live or work in a nursing home, you don’t do anything. It’s not yet your time,” he said. “But it will be soon.”

During a news conference Wednesday, Northam said vaccinators are “on track,” but he expects the rate to improve. He asked residents to continue using the infection prevention methods they’ve

used over the past 10 months to stay healthy and slow the spread of the virus — that is, wear masks in public, keep a distance of six feet from others and wash hands — while they wait their turns for inoculation, “the most powerful tool.”

“We’re making progress, but I think there’s no question we need to speed the process up,” he said.

Virginia opted to put front line health care workers, including emergency medical technicians, and long-term care residents in the top-tier priority group for immunizations based on federal recommendations. About 40% of the state’s death toll to COVID-19 has been among people in nursing homes and similar facilities.

In the past 24 hours, about 12,000 people had gotten shots. Officials said they think they can increase that to 14,000 a day, which would exhaust the estimated 110,000 doses Virginia is getting on a weekly basis.

The near-term goal is to raise that rate to 25,000 a day, but that would require manufacturers to increase supplies. Eventually, state leaders hope to ramp up to 50,000 a day.

But even at that level, it would take the entire year to reach everyone. There are about 8.5 million Virginians. If they all require two doses, vaccinators will need to plunge 17 million needles into arms to get the job done.

At the goal of 50,000 shots a day, four times Virginia’s current rate, it would take an estimated 340 days to complete.

Achieving that outcome starts with a message to health care providers, local health departments, hospitals, clinics and pharmacies to get moving, Northam said.

“I want you to empty those freezers and get shots in arms,” he said.

“When you have vials, give out shots until they’re gone. No one wants to see any supplies sitting unused. The companies are manufacturing more. They’re working around the clock, and you’re going to get more, so don’t waste anything. You’re going to get everything you need.”

Following that statement was a warning that if sites receiving vaccines fail to use them up quickly, state health officials will assume that means they’re getting too much. It may result in future shipments being redirected to other places throughout the state that appear to need them more, he said.

As of Wednesday, there had been 313,349 confirmed coronavirus cases and 5,226 suspected deaths in the state, according to the Virginia Department of Health. Over 18,600 Virginians have been hospitalized.

In the middle of a winter surge, nearly 17% of standard nasal swab tests are coming back positive for the virus statewide.

Case numbers are about four times higher now than they were last spring. University of Virginia data scientists are projecting that if the pandemic continues on this trajectory, Virginia could see cases continue to rise through Valentine’s Day or longer.

The state is preparing to expand the program to the next in line for vaccines, a group that will include so-called essential workers and people ages 75 and older. State officials think there are about 2 million of them.

Some individuals considered essential workers are teachers, police, fire fighters, first responders, daycare workers, manufacturers, grocery store and pharmacy employees and public transit workers.

Also in that cohort are food and agricultural workers, which public health officials say will be an important group to immunize because of the workplace risks they face. Earlier in the pandemic, severe outbreaks occurred in chicken processing plants on the Eastern Shore.

The next group will be people 65 and older and workers in fields like transportation, food service, construction and energy. They represent another 2.5 million people, Northam said.

How the state will roll out those programs will be explained in the coming days and weeks, officials said.

Northam announced he has tapped Dr. Danny Avula, director of the Richmond and Henrico County health departments, to lead the state’s vaccination program.

In his new role, Avula will act as a “field general,” Northam said, coordinating work between state officials, local health departments, hospitals and private health care providers.

When more doses arrive, Avula will work with the National Guard to assist with vaccinating the public.

As the program expands to other groups, the state will offer online tools to help residents find locations that offer shots.