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The ACC went into the NCAA Tournament with everything to prove and not a lot to lose.
So far, it has gotten about what it deserved. Life can be funny that way.
To the extent tournament performance is a measure of anything — and the Pac-12 would like to argue that it is while the Big Ten and Big 12 would not — the ACC’s results are right in line with expectations based on the season it had.
The ACC was never as bad as some claimed, but it wasn’t overflowing with great teams, either. The postseason has borne that out. It turns out the ACC is what everyone thought it was.
It’s dangerous to attach too much meaning to any of this, given the chaos inherent in a one-and-done tournament — just ask Virginia! — but everyone does because these are the most important and visible games of the year. And if the ACC at large is going to claim history in a year like 2016, when it had six teams in the second weekend, it needs to face the music in years such as this.
The ACC was appropriately seeded, with seven teams in the field — and Louisville probably should have been eight over Utah State, but when you leave your fate in the hands of the committee, you face the consequences — but nothing better than a No. 4 seed.
With the two No. 4s, a
No. 7, No. 8, No. 9, No. 10 and No. 11, the ACC would have been expected to win 3.9 first-round games. It won two, which is not great.
It would have been expected to send two teams to the Sweet 16; it sent two. That’s better.
The timing was awkward for the ACC, with all of its coin-flip teams playing March 19 and all but Syracuse losing, fueling the ACC-is-weak fire. Virginia’s first-round upset last Saturday didn’t help either.
That would change by the end of the weekend, as the Big Ten and Big 12 went up in flames and the ACC was all but forgotten.
The ACC is now no worse off than either of those conferences, analytically and anecdotally speaking the two best going into the tournament. The Big Ten and Big 12 each had four teams with top-four seeds lose early, including a No. 1 seed, two No. 2s and three No. 3s. They each have a single No. 1 seed left — Baylor and Michigan — but seeding has mattered less than usual this March.
There’s obviously an element of randomness in this particular tournament that hasn’t always been present, and the Pac-12 has made the most of it.
The ACC might have the lowest winning percentage of any of the power conferences at 4-5, a fraction behind the Big Ten, but the ACC ended up with more teams in the Sweet 16 than the Big Ten or Big 12, and as many as the SEC and Big East.
So between Syracuse’s ritual NCAA Tournament run after a disappointing
season and Florida State making the Sweet 16 for the third straight tournament, the ACC has neither changed the conversation nor suffered further ignominy. The glory has gone elsewhere, as has the shame.
Still, just so there’s no confusion, this isn’t good enough. In 2015, the Triangle alone sent more teams to the Sweet 16 than the entire ACC did this year. (Not a coincidence: The relative underperformance by Duke, North Carolina and N.C. State is a big reason the perception of the ACC was what it was this season.)
The ACC may have avoided the mockery the
Big Ten and Big 12 are absorbing, but that’s in part because those conferences had far more to lose. For a conference built on its basketball tradition, the past two seasons have been an aberration.
While the ACC failed to renovate its reputation, there’s still time for Florida State and Syracuse to put a bow on things, albeit against the odds. The ACC has had a team in the Final Four in all but one of the past five tournaments and won the national title in three of them. That’s where the bar has really always been set.
The ACC can still clear it.