Anticipation building for US hiring boom this year

WASHINGTON — With hopes rising for a powerful rebound in hiring this year, Friday’s jobs report for March will provide crucial insight into whether those rosy expectations may prove true.

The most optimistic economists are predicting the government will report that as many as 1 million jobs were added in March — a blistering gain that would help recover a decent chunk of the 9.5 million jobs that remain lost to the pandemic. Still, the increase might not be quite that large: Overall, economists surveyed by data provider FactSet have forecast an increase of 615,000.

After a year of epic job losses, waves of coronavirus infections, and small-business closures, numerous trends are brightening the outlook. Consumer confidence in March reached its highest level since the pandemic intensified. Americans have increased their spending as the latest stimulus checks have been distributed. More states and cities are easing restrictions on restaurants, bars and indoor gatherings. Vaccinations are being increasingly administered, although new confirmed infections have risen from lower levels in recent weeks.

The $1,400 checks in President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion economic relief plan have increased consumer spending, according to Bank of America’s tracking of its debit and credit cards. Spending jumped 23% in the third week of March compared with pre-pandemic levels, the bank said.

“We’re seeing a powerful response to stimulus payments from the consumer,” said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Bank of America.

Lower-income Americans responded with vigor, with spending among cardholders earning under $50,000 soaring 69% compared with pre-pandemic levels. More than 127 million of the stimulus payments, worth $325 billion, have been distributed.

The burgeoning economic activity is showing signs of translating into more jobs.

Karen Fichuk, CEO of Randstad North America, a recruiting firm, said the company is seeking to fill 38% more permanent jobs than it was at the end of last year. Demand for workers is particularly strong in manufacturing, information technology, logistics, and health care.

“We are definitely starting to see the economic recovery reach a turning point, including in the hardest hit industries, such as hospitality,” Fichuk said.

Job listings on the website Indeed.com jumped in the last week of March, with available jobs now 13.5% above pre-pandemic levels.

Jed Kolko, Indeed’s chief economist, said that job postings in higher-paid sectors, such as financial services and technology, have accelerated in the past couple of months.

That increase is “a sign of longer-term economic confidence,” Kolko said, because employers typically don’t advertise such positions until they’re confident that the prospects for growth are sustainable.

Robust job growth in March, however, will raise an important question: Can it continue at the same pace?

Besides the 9.5 million fewer jobs that exist in the U.S. economy than before the virus struck, an additional 2 million or so jobs would have been added in the past year under normal circumstances. That means the U.S. economy still needs 11.5 million more jobs to regain something close to full health.