‘WAR’ could be hell in negotiations
Utility players, like Chris Taylor, would be undervalued under reported proposal
In the never-ending war between man and machine, the machines may have picked up another point.
According to a report from the meetings of general managers in Carlsbad, California, Major League Baseball has proposed a new system for determining player salaries before free agency. Similar to their proposal from August, the new one suggests eliminating arbitration and granting players free agency once they turn 29
That August proposal offered a predetermined dollar amount pooled among eligible players; the newest tweak would pay the players based on performance. The parameters are not your father’s home runs, RBIs, or pitching wins, though. Instead, the league has pitched the idea of using Wins Above Replacement, the game’s statistic du jour that calculates the most all-encompassing totality of a player’s on-field value.
Specifically, the league proposed FanGraphs’ version of WAR, colloquially known as fWAR. The website Baseball-Reference has its own version of the statistic as well (bWAR), using a slightly different formula based on different underlying statistics. A major difference between fWAR and bWAR is the amount of weight they put on different defensive positions.
Catchers, for instance, receive a +12.5 positional adjustment in FanGraphs’ formula. First basemen, for context, receive an adjustment of -12.5 due to the perceived ease of their position, relatively speaking. With the added catcher bump, Buster Posey’s 2021 fWAR was 4.9, making him one of the 20 best position players in the league per FanGraphs. Baseball-Reference, meanwhile, had him at 3.5. You’re starting to see the problem.
One agent told The Athletic that Albert Pujols will lead the league in stolen bases before the union agrees to the proposal. But if it somehow comes to be, there will be justified gripes about fairness. With two versions out there, both cited regularly by the industry, choosing one that highly fluctuates the value of certain positions is sure to ruffle the feathers of those nesting in a corner spot. Never mind designated hitters, who would see their value tanked by fWAR.
Giancarlo Stanton, who made 108 of his 134 starts at DH, would represent the anti-Posey. Stanton’s value was determined as half a win greater by bWAR (3.1) than it was by fWAR (2.6).
With millions of dollars potentially on the line, those decimal differences would be highly significant. Even after narrowing the focus to just fWAR, the list of probable issues with the system goes on and on. This is not to disparage or discount the statistic, but rather to highlight the absurdity of using it as gospel to determine how much a worker should be paid for labor. Consider the plight of the part-time player.
Under this new proposition, backups, platoon men and utility players would lose the ability to argue on behalf of their value.
The current arbitration system lets any players with at least three years of big-league experience present their case to an independent panel explaining why they should make more money. If that human element is removed, and fWAR becomes the be-all, end-all decider, those part-timers are punished for playing their role.
Take Chris Taylor, a Virginia Beach native, for example. The Dodgers have used the former Cox High and Virginia Cavaliers standout for more than 700 innings at second base, shortstop, left field and center field. Taylor filled in as needed whenever one of his teammates went down or simply needed a breather. He became the best utility man in the game. But with fewer starts than his contemporaries, Taylor’s fWAR was not as bloated.
In 2019, Taylor appeared in 124 of the Dodgers’ 162 games, hitting .262 with a .333 on-base percentage and .462 slugging percentage in just over 400 plate appearances. Most everyday starters get to 600 plate appearances in a full season. But with Taylor occupying a different role and doing it better than anyone — something a human would understand better than a computer — his fWAR came out at 1.7. That’s a solid season, but not one that would get him the two-year, $13.4 million contract he received.
On top of that, the $13.4 million was a way for the Dodgers to specifically avoid arbitration, where Taylor could have made even more money. Relief pitchers fall into the same boat.
With FanGraphs prioritizing the sabermetric Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) in their WAR formula, and Baseball-Reference sticking with good ol’ fashioned runs, a divide would also emerge between the new school and old school, as well as pitchers with porous defenses and ones who play with Gold Glovers. Look at Nathan Eovaldi.
The Red Sox pitcher’s 2.79 FIP was MLB’s third-best last season. According to FIP, his actual ERA of 3.75 would have been a shinier 2.79 if he experienced league average results on balls in play. By using FIP in their WAR algorithm, FanGraphs rated Eovaldi’s season (5.6) higher than Baseball-Reference did (4.6).
MLB is trying to give the impression of progress and forward thinking. Instead, it came up with the contract-negotiation equivalent of the despised BCS, college football’s postseason computer rating that was replaced by human voters eight years ago. College football is an apt comparison also because
MLB seems hell-bent on stopping the players from getting the money they deserve.