Virginia’s economic future

The economy, not education, drove commonwealth voters in the governor’s race

While the presumed wisdom is that Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democratic former Gov. Terry McAuliffe on the strength of his education platform, exit polling conducted by several companies tells a different story.

Across these polls, voters say their decision for governor was primarily based, not on education, but on the economy — jobs, taxes, regulations and the restrictions imposed as public health measures to limit the spread of COVID-19.

Now, exit polls generally aren’t the most reliable way to judge the will and intent of the electorate, but they do offer some insight into why voters made the decisions they did. And in this case, it’s certainly worth further exploration and what it could mean for the commonwealth.

When he enters office in January, Youngkin will assume the helm of a state which topped CNBC’s list of the best places to do business in 2021 and 2019. It is also where online retail behemoth Amazon in 2019 chose to locate its second headquarters, promising to invest $2.5 billion to build 6 million square feet of office space and create 25,000 high-paying jobs.

That’s a far cry from a state economy “driven into a ditch” by its Democratic leadership, as Youngkin claimed during the campaign. Virginia has been competitive — with its neighbors, nationally and globally — and can boast results.

However, there’s always room for improvement. And it’s fair to say that opportunity has not been evenly distributed across the commonwealth, or even within communities. The chasm between the haves and have-nots continues to grow wider.

It certainly makes sense, for instance, that residents of southwest Virginia would vote for change. That region has long struggled for attention from Richmond, despite some determined efforts of recent administrations, and does not enjoy the type of prosperity or opportunity seen elsewhere.

Census data shows population loss in Virginia was greatest in the extreme southwest corner (Buchanan, Wise and Lee counties, in particular) and in many of the counties along the North Carolina border. These are largely rural communities, where infrastructure investment and broadband expansion could pay dividends.

There has been progress on that front, notably the $257 million agreement with Norfolk Southern to expand passenger service in the New River Valley and the investment of $700 million in federal funding from the American Rescue Plan to expand broadband throughout the state, with a focus on southwest Virginia.

But helping preserve existing businesses, expanding employment opportunity, and caring for communities harmed by a changing economy (such as the loss of coal jobs) must be a greater priority in state government.

Things are comparatively better in the commonwealth’s population centers — Hampton Roads, Richmond and northern Virginia — which drive the state economy. Those areas continue to accrue jobs and create opportunities for residents, and will be served by the substantial investment in high-tech education fueled by Amazon.

The trick for these regions is to hold on to existing economic sectors — in Hampton Roads, that means defense jobs linked to federal spending, activity at the Port of

Virginia, and hospitality/tourism — while diversifying to broaden the employment base.

Locally, that should mean taking advantage of growth in green-energy and climate opportunities, such as the wind turbine blade manufacturing facility recently announced for Portsmouth, along with cybersecurity and maritime industries.

Following his win this month, Youngkin promised that his administration would create 400,000 jobs and 10,000 start-ups during his term, setting a firm and ambitious target to grow the state economy. The governor-elect pledged to put his business acumen to work for Virginia.

But the details — the what and the how and the where — are yet to be determined. It’s not just that Virginia needs to create jobs, but that certain areas need more help than others, and certain economic sectors appear ripe for expansion, with vigorous pursuit.

Youngkin inherits a good situation and will look to make it better. All Virginians will benefit if he is able to follow through and build a more prosperous commonwealth, from the mountains to the coast.