A peek at the Atlantic for peak of hurricane season
This week marks what meteorologists say is the peak of hurricane season, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are tracking several disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean.
For the past several days, Hurricane Lee has garnered most of the attention as the Category 3 storm has moved northwest. The storm’s category has risen and fallen since it was upgraded from a tropical storm, mainly due to “eyewall replacement cycles,” but as of Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said the storm has remained a “major” hurricane. An eyewall replacement cycle is when a new eyewall begins to develop around the old one and eventually overtakes it.
“Fluctuations in strength are likely in the short term due to eyewall replacement cycles, but there is an opportunity for some strengthening during that time since the system is expected to remain over very warm waters and in relatively low wind shear conditions,” John Cangialosi, senior hurricane specialist at the center, said in an update. “Beyond a couple of days, however, progressively cooler waters and a notable increase in shear should cause Lee to gradually weaken.”
Although Hurricane Lee will weaken over the course of the week, Cangialosi said the storm is expected to significantly increase in size and hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm by the end of the forecast period.
National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said in a livestream Monday that the storm’s maximum sustained winds have been about 120 mph.
“We’re starting to see the size of Lee expand. We actually have hurricane-force winds now extending out as far as about 75 miles from the center,” Brennan said. “Tropical storm-force winds (are) now extending out almost 200 miles from the center of Lee, and that’s a trend we’re going to see continue for the next several days. That’s going to have some implications for how the hazards associated with Lee in terms of rainfall, wind, potential coastal flooding and storm surge and dangerous surf and rip currents are going to play out along the U.S. East Coast.”
The storm is moving to the northwest about 8 mph, and that will continue for about a day, Brennan said. Then, a “slow turn” toward the north will occur through the middle this week, and then forecasters expect it to accelerate.
Behind Lee lies Tropical Storm Margot. The storm is moving north about 10 mph in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Maximum sustained winds have topped 70 mph.
“The storm has a chance to strengthen further over the next couple of days while it moves over relatively warm waters up to 28 (degrees Celsius) and in lessening shear. In a few days, an increase in shear and dry-air entrainment should gradually weaken Margot,” a forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center reads.
Two other disturbances are being watched off the coast of Africa, but in the immediate future, formation chances are at about 10%. The more easterly of the two, which currently is not identified by a name or number, has a formation chance of about 60% through the next seven days.