It’s tough to beat the elite
In AP poll, little movement, gaudy records tell the story
The time for upsets has come and gone with little chaos in college football and not much movement in the AP Top 25 for much of the season.
For the first time in more than 14 years, the same eight teams held the top eight spots in the poll for five straight weeks.
Behind No. 1 Georgia this week was Michigan returning to No. 2, followed by Washington, Florida State and Oregon in the top five. Ohio State slipped to No. 6 after losing to Michigan.
No. 7 Texas and No. 8 Alabama held their spots. Eight playoff contenders, four unbeaten and four 11-1. All but Ohio State will play in a conference championship game next week.
Throughout the entire Top 25 the records are gaudier than usual.
Last year the Top 25 teams heading into championship weekend had lost 59 games. In 2021, that number was 47.
This year, the Top 25 has 40 combined losses after the completion of the 12-game regular season. Of those 40 losses, 24 have come against other teams that currently are ranked.
Has that made life easy on AP poll voters this year? Maybe a little, but Reality Check will always find places to ponder the rankings.
NO. 1 GEORGIA (12-0) Next:
vs. No. 8 Alabama,
SEC championship, Saturday.
Reality check: The Bulldogs allowed 10 rushing touchdowns combined in their two championship seasons. This season: 12.
Just right.
Ranked: NO. 2 MICHIGAN (12-0) Next:
vs. No. 18 Iowa,
Big Ten championship, Saturday.
Reality check: Loss of G Zak Zinter (left leg) will test the Wolverines’ depth up front if they end up in a third straight CFP.
Ranked: Just right.
NO. 3 WASHINGTON (12-0)
Next: vs. No. 5 Oregon,
Pac-12 championship, Friday.
Reality check: Huskies don’t have a Hypnotoad but all these close victories give them 2022 TCU vibes.
Ranked: Just right.
NO. 4 FLORIDA STATE (12-0)
Next: vs. No. 15 Louisville,
ACC championship, Saturday.
Reality check: Seminoles found some offense in the second half against Florida after a rough start with QB Tate Rodemaker. Ranked: Just right.
NO. 5 OREGON (11-1) Next:
vs. No. 3 Washington,
Pac-12 championship, Friday.
Reality check: Oregon is tied for 12th in the nation in defense at 4.83 yards per play allowed with ... yes, Georgia.
Just right.
Ranked: NO. 6 OHIO STATE (11-1) Next: Reality check:
TBD.
When you have a perennial top-five program, you don’t make coaching changes unless you absolutely have to. Ohio State doesn’t.
Little high.
Ranked: NO. 7 TEXAS (11-1) Next:
vs. No. 19 Oklahoma State,
Big 12 championship, Saturday.
Reality check: Longhorns look for someone to pick up some of the slack for the loss of star Jonathon Brooks.
Ranked: Touch low.
NO. 8 ALABAMA (11-1)
Next: vs. No. 1 Georgia,
SEC championship, Saturday.
Reality check: Tide allowed 244 yards rushing against an Auburn team that could barely complete a pass. Puzzling.
Ranked: Just right.
NO. 9 MISSOURI (10-2)
Next: TBD.
Reality check: Tigers have the SEC’s leading rusher in RB Cody Schrader, a former D-II transfer and walk-on.
Ranked: This group of four teams is tricky. This one is fine.
NO. 10 PENN STATE (10-2) Next: Reality check:
TBD.
Incongruous stats: Nittany Lions rank 14th in the nation in scoring at 37 points per game, but 81st in yards per play at 5.46.
Ranked: Little high.
NO. 11 MISSISSIPPI (10-2)
Next: TBD.
Reality check: Rebels had never won 10 regular-season games and now have done it twice in three seasons under coach Lane Kiffin. Ranked: Little low.
NO. 12 OKLAHOMA (10-2)
Next: TBD.
Reality check: S Billy Bowman Jr. had an All-America season with six interceptions, three returned for touchdowns.
Ranked: Little low.
NO. 13 LSU (9-3)
Next: TBD.
Reality check: OLB Harold Perkins Jr. didn’t have the dominant season many expected after flashing huge potential as a freshman last year.
Just right.
Ranked: NO. 14 ARIZONA (9-3) Next: Reality check:
TBD.
After one of the best turnarounds of the season, now the goal for the Wildcats is to keep coach Jedd Fisch in Tucson. Ranked: Just right.
NO. 15 LOUISVILLE (10-2) Next:
vs. No. 4 Florida State,
ACC championship, Saturday.
Reality check: Despite the loss to Kentucky, Cardinals still look good to earn a spot in the Orange Bowl.
Ranked: This works.
NO. 16 NOTRE DAME (9-3)
Next: TBD.
Reality check: Been some complaints about Notre Dame’s offense, but it ranks ninth in the country in yards per play (6.95).
Just right.
Ranked: NO. 17 TULANE (11-1) Next:
vs. No. 25 SMU,
AAC championship, Saturday.
Reality check: Green Wave are 23-3 over the last two seasons.
Ranked: This is fine.
NO. 18 IOWA (10-2)
Next: vs. No. 2 Michigan,
Big Ten championship, Saturday.
Reality check: Hawkeyes closed the season on a four-game winning streak, in which they averaged 15 points per game. Amazing. Ranked: Too high.
NO. 19 OKLAHOMA STATE (9-3)
Next: vs. No. 7 Texas,
Big 12 championship, Saturday.
Reality check: Ollie Gordon II saved the Cowboys’ season with five TDs against BYU. Ranked: About right.
NO. 20 LIBERTY (12-0)
Next: vs. New Mexico State, Friday.
Reality check: Flames lead the nation in rushing at 295 per game.
Ranked: Little high.
NO. 21 (TIE) NC STATE (9-3)
Next: TBD.
Reality check: Under-the-radar quality season by coach Dave Doeren and the Wolfpack. Ranked: Little low.
NO. 21 (TIE) OREGON STATE (8-4)
Next: TBD.
Reality check: The final results of
D.J. Uiagalelei’s second chance after Clemson were OK.
Ranked: Just right.
NO. 23 TOLEDO (11-1)
Next: vs. Miami (Ohio)
MAC championship, Saturday
Reality check: The MAC championship used to routinely produce drama with coaches who might be leaving for bigger jobs. Ranked: Just right.
NO. 24 JAMES MADISON (11-1)
Next: TBD.
Reality check: The Dukes will go bowling thanks to a shortage of six-win teams. Ranked: Just right.
NO. 25 SMU (10-2)
Next: at No. 17 Tulane,
AAC championship, Saturday.
Reality check: Mustangs’ first appearance in the AAC title game has been fueled by a top-10 defense.
Ranked: Just right.