ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, JENSEN

FIRST RACE

Been almost two years, but WHY IT’S TRUE has been in for this $ 5K tag before, even if all his starts since March 2014 have come at higher levels. Long layoff & comeback for $15K wasn’t terrible, leading one to suspect he’s being dropped to win, not just to be claimed. Two recent works & one of the only pace elements in the race while well drawn outside. 6fs would be too far but he can get this 5.5fs trip. MR. ERIN’s two sprints at the meet were good enough to snag him a share. LYONSPOINT BANDIT’s moderately contending recent form has come in two-turn races on the Delta bullring & might not transfer.

SECOND RACE

RITA’S FIFTY SEVEN snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the final half-furlong of career debut, and then might’ve been rushed a bit into rich futurity, where, in any case, she regressed. Had more time now, and if the move to turf doesn’t help — and it might — the cut back to 5.5fs should. Sharp recent work. New rider might suit her better, too. STACKOLEENA raced Dec. 12 and worked back Jan. 4, but time-span between dates was a very wet period & might account for break in action. Unspectacular but decent in her first two starts, and being by Elusive Quality she could do better on grass. Debuting TWO PUNCH MILLIE looks live from work pattern and is well bred for a turf sprint. Worth considering at a price. ACID RAIN can’t be left out of plans, either, though even at 5.5fs she’s had trouble finishing.

THIRD RACE

PRESIDENT CHARLIE had no pace at which to run last time and lost all chance when rein broke two back, and his form might be better than it looks on the surface. The appeal on the win end, however, is price coupled with possible running style. If he can settle and finish on dirt like he did on turf 8/ 16 he could get a great trip closing into contested early & middle pace. Blinkers— on SIR TIZ might really help, since he appeared on way to victory a furlong out last time but seemed to lose momentum and was nipped by a nose. He does have some speed, however, & I guess the concern at a fairly short price is the hood makes him more aggressive and he gets sucked into a demanding pace. Liked the look of MY FRIEND FLAVIN’s comeback win last time and good to see him finish the task there after teasing several times last meet. Not that concerned about second-start bounce, but does he stay a two-turn mile?

FOURTH RACE

NONCOMMITAL has been losing late ground every time out, which obviously we don’t like to see, but the cut back to 5.5 furlongs, her shortest trip yet, and the switch to turf could change that pattern. By Speightstown and out of a Service Stripe mare, she should love the grass. I DREAM OF CANDY working on perfect 3-3 record of 2nd-place finishes in turf sprints, and the one time she was closing ground late, she was rallying into a silly-fast early pace. Drawn wide and could lose valuable ground unless sent on speed mission to lead. EUROBOSS badly overbet in career debut and stopped late, but she was entered for turf and rained off there, and is out of a Horse Chestnut mare, so will give her another look if this stays on.

FIFTH RACE

NEW YORK CANDY has a steady work pattern dating to October that, to be frank, makes him look fast. The barn rarely wins with first-time starters, but that should help the odds, and this one might be exception to rule. DOUBLE DARE looks like work in progress racing in front first time out and from well off pace second start. Wouldn’t want any part at morning-line 5/ 2 but suspect he’ll be higher than that, and improvement seems possible now. I’d guess MALIBU SUNSET will wind up favored here, but since he recorded his first published work 9/ 25 and was going steadily, have to think he was first intended for debut at CD in November. Gap in works from 11/4 - 11/ 20, and while his drills on paper look strong, there obviously have been plenty of MSWs to enter at FG before now. Might also want more ground. Be no surprise though.