ANAL­Y­SIS

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Fair Grounds -

BEST BET: RACE 7, JENSEN

FIRST RACE

Been al­most two years, but WHY IT’S TRUE has been in for this $ 5K tag be­fore, even if all his starts since March 2014 have come at higher lev­els. Long lay­off & come­back for $15K wasn’t ter­ri­ble, lead­ing one to sus­pect he’s be­ing dropped to win, not just to be claimed. Two re­cent works & one of the only pace el­e­ments in the race while well drawn out­side. 6fs would be too far but he can get this 5.5fs trip. MR. ERIN’s two sprints at the meet were good enough to snag him a share. LYONSPOINT BAN­DIT’s mod­er­ately con­tend­ing re­cent form has come in two-turn races on the Delta bull­ring & might not trans­fer.

SE­COND RACE

RITA’S FIFTY SEVEN snatched de­feat from the jaws of vic­tory in the fi­nal half-fur­long of ca­reer de­but, and then might’ve been rushed a bit into rich fu­tu­rity, where, in any case, she re­gressed. Had more time now, and if the move to turf doesn’t help — and it might — the cut back to 5.5fs should. Sharp re­cent work. New rider might suit her bet­ter, too. STACKOLEENA raced Dec. 12 and worked back Jan. 4, but time-span be­tween dates was a very wet pe­riod & might ac­count for break in ac­tion. Un­spec­tac­u­lar but de­cent in her first two starts, and be­ing by Elu­sive Qual­ity she could do bet­ter on grass. De­but­ing TWO PUNCH MIL­LIE looks live from work pat­tern and is well bred for a turf sprint. Worth con­sid­er­ing at a price. ACID RAIN can’t be left out of plans, ei­ther, though even at 5.5fs she’s had trou­ble fin­ish­ing.

THIRD RACE

PRES­I­DENT CHAR­LIE had no pace at which to run last time and lost all chance when rein broke two back, and his form might be bet­ter than it looks on the sur­face. The ap­peal on the win end, how­ever, is price cou­pled with pos­si­ble run­ning style. If he can set­tle and fin­ish on dirt like he did on turf 8/ 16 he could get a great trip clos­ing into con­tested early & middle pace. Blink­ers— on SIR TIZ might re­ally help, since he ap­peared on way to vic­tory a fur­long out last time but seemed to lose mo­men­tum and was nipped by a nose. He does have some speed, how­ever, & I guess the con­cern at a fairly short price is the hood makes him more ag­gres­sive and he gets sucked into a de­mand­ing pace. Liked the look of MY FRIEND FLAVIN’s come­back win last time and good to see him fin­ish the task there af­ter teas­ing sev­eral times last meet. Not that con­cerned about se­cond-start bounce, but does he stay a two-turn mile?

FOURTH RACE

NON­COM­MI­TAL has been los­ing late ground ev­ery time out, which ob­vi­ously we don’t like to see, but the cut back to 5.5 fur­longs, her short­est trip yet, and the switch to turf could change that pat­tern. By Speight­stown and out of a Ser­vice Stripe mare, she should love the grass. I DREAM OF CANDY work­ing on per­fect 3-3 record of 2nd-place fin­ishes in turf sprints, and the one time she was clos­ing ground late, she was ral­ly­ing into a silly-fast early pace. Drawn wide and could lose valu­able ground un­less sent on speed mis­sion to lead. EUROBOSS badly over­bet in ca­reer de­but and stopped late, but she was en­tered for turf and rained off there, and is out of a Horse Chest­nut mare, so will give her an­other look if this stays on.

FIFTH RACE

NEW YORK CANDY has a steady work pat­tern dat­ing to Oc­to­ber that, to be frank, makes him look fast. The barn rarely wins with first-time starters, but that should help the odds, and this one might be ex­cep­tion to rule. DOU­BLE DARE looks like work in progress rac­ing in front first time out and from well off pace se­cond start. Wouldn’t want any part at morn­ing-line 5/ 2 but sus­pect he’ll be higher than that, and im­prove­ment seems pos­si­ble now. I’d guess MAL­IBU SUN­SET will wind up fa­vored here, but since he recorded his first pub­lished work 9/ 25 and was go­ing steadily, have to think he was first in­tended for de­but at CD in Novem­ber. Gap in works from 11/4 - 11/ 20, and while his drills on pa­per look strong, there ob­vi­ously have been plenty of MSWs to en­ter at FG be­fore now. Might also want more ground. Be no sur­prise though.

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