FAIR GROUNDS

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SIXTH RACE

CAR­TOON won well last time and has been flat­tered by the only one in front of him two back, Blarp, who’s since been com­pet­i­tive in stakes. Can’t re­call see­ing a horse from this out­fit work a sub-1:00 5fs like he did on Jan. 24. Lightly raced with up­side, though doubt he’s as high as morn­ing-line odds. CANDY GRAN was drawn wide last time and made a nice run into a slow pace in race won by listed- stakes class horse. If he gets a bet­ter setup and moves for­ward at all, watch out. TREND had too much to do while ral­ly­ing solidly again last time in a race at this class level, but poor out­side draw could be his un­do­ing on win end here.

SEV­ENTH RACE

JENSEN was for­tu­nate not to win his ca­reer de­but, in which he ran well, since he’s al­most cer­tainly meant to be a two-turn horse, and the loss gave him a se­cond sprint as foun­da­tion for stretch-out. I think he’s tal­ented enough to step up and like the way he goes, and any­thing close to morn­ing-line odds would ap­peal. DOL­PHUS got antsy, reared up, sat down, was lose for a mo­ment, and was quickly scratched at gate for Le­comte. Was said to have suf­fered no in­juries there, and in­deed worked back two weeks later. He was sur­pris­ingly dead on the board at the time, some­thing like 17/1, which I found strange, since I thought he had a rep­u­ta­tion. De­but win came in a race too short, and he was prob­a­bly too close to fast pace com­ing back fairly quickly in a fast N1X al­lowance from which the run­ner-up re­turned to be se­cond in the Le­comte. Clear con­tender but will try to beat him on top. HAR­LAN PUNCH didn’t work be­tween Dec. 29 & Jan. 24 & was scratched out of a race like this Jan. 18. Did show prom­ise last year but con­sid­er­ing the cir­cum­stances I have to be against him at a short price.

EIGHTH RACE

DOL­PHUS is here to run if the race comes off turf. You can see my com­ments about him in the anal­y­sis of race 7. Also ex­pected to scratch (some re­gard­less, some if the race stays on turf, which it al­most cer­tainly will: SHEIKH OF SHEIKHS, TIZNO­BLE, and TWIRLING CIN­NA­MON. GOT SOME MOJO was rained off grass when a de­cent third last time and showed a nice fin­ish win­ning his only pre­vi­ous turf try, an Ar­ling­ton maiden race. He could eas­ily be over­looked in the bet­ting. OS­CAR NOM­I­NATED prob­a­bly will be fa­vored off his CD N1X grass run, but did he do much more there than gal­lop along on a slow pace over a la­bor­ing late-sea­son turf course he hap­pened to han­dle? Think he’ll be over­bet. Still think ONE MEAN MAN can be a good grass horse, but also think he’ll need one turn to be­come one.

NINTH RACE

Trainer Steve Flint has sent a lot of live La-bred maidens from EvT to FG the last cou­ple years, and home­bred DIG DOWN DEEP de­buts for 10X his sire’s pub­lished stud fee. He won an EvT train­ing race and gen­er­ally has en­cour­ag­ing drills. Ger­oux will hurt the price a but, but odds might still be fair. MSW drop­per POWER AND GRACE can lead a long way if he breaks sharply and makes the front from the rail. I DON’T FLY COACH ran on de­but like a horse that “needed” his first start. Blink­ers, onelevel class drop, chance at a price.

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