ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, APARRI

FIRST RACE

LAST CALL LOBO broke poorly last out when trying this dirt for the first time but to his credit he still beat over half the field home. Now connections find an easier spot for what we like to call the money run. Time to eat some chalk. CRATER LAKE might show a little speed in this spot. All those layoff lines are a bit worrisome but at least he has some back class. Can he fire fresh? There isn’t much speed in this race if the front end is tried. BOLD AUGUSTUS was away slowly in his debut and then dwelt in his second start when facing stakes foes. One of these days he is going to break cleanly and he does put the blinkers ON today. GOOD AT GETTIN’ BY is by a 1 for 71 debut sire. His dam went 27-6-3-1 for 99K. Of 12 sibs to race, 8 won.

SECOND RACE

HUGSFORHENNYHALL didn’t get much play off the layoff as if she needed the race. She actually ran OK for a half mile before throwing in the towel. We know that she is capable on the grass as those Canterbury tries three and four back can attest to. A stalking trip off multiple speed horses would be an ideal trip. CLEVERLY BEVERLY has hit the exacta in 10 of 16 local turf tries. A stalking trip off legit splits can only help. She just missed a Beyer top two back (by one point). CAMY AWARD is a deep closer in a race full of speed. She should have the back of the pack to herself and maybe that helps her relax more. Penchant for less is not lost on us.

THIRD RACE

AIKMAN’S GAL broke on top last out but then didn’t push things and simply ran poorly. Not sure what happened but we do see a new jockey today. Nice to see her put races together and she does drop in class. She should be too good for these but then again why was she 10-1 previously? GENESEE STREET did try tougher in her debut while dropping and popping in her second start. First time winners and first time two turns was a bit much in her third start. Connections find a logical spot. MYONIA has yet to put races together and that isn’t a good sign. She might show a little speed today. The Silva barn is 25% with new runners. This is a weird race. We won’t enjoy it.

FOURTH RACE

CHARLIE’S DEERE just didn’t show any speed last out in a race that didn’t have a ton of zip. He broke 2nd and then ran evenly before tiring the last furlong. Any chance he wasn’t fully acclimated from his trip from Oklahoma? He is proven at this tricky distance and we know he has better speed that what he just showed. One more chance we guess in a race that is quite poor. KERSHNER ran second as the chalk the last time he tried 6 1/2 furlongs. Too bad it was over a year ago. Any chance five furlongs was too short 1 and 3 back? TOTAL FABRICATION has won twice at this distance. Current form is poor hence the layoff? We have to pick someone third you know.

FIFTH RACE

Why not ARTISTIC VENTURE? The best speed horse is one that looks OFF form and for two reasons: 1) they pay well 2) other speeds often let them go in the false belief that they are OFF form. Here ends the pace lesson. ALBACORE BOB is a tad better of late. Added distance is a plus. So is price. CARLOT COWBOY is your favorite. Those local tries versus open foes as recently as two and three back would certainly win this if duplicated. With that said, he did lose as the chalk in said races. Not sure the rail is any help.

SIXTH RACE

GIRONDIN is bred to love, love, and love the green and we thought he had found a great spot when making local debut last out. He ran great and beat his Beyer top by 19 points. BUT, he still lost as the

chalk even if by only a half length. Lots and lots of speed in here. We think this colt can pass runners but maybe connections will be tempted with the rail draw. The one to beat but lockola status is far from certain. YA ANTABTTSY gets great race flow and just ran much better last out. Turf breeding is actually good. PURECOLLECTION is by a 8% debut sire. His dam never tried the green. Two of five sibs won on the grass. This barn has put up some big turf prices. Turf breeding is actually good at least on the Tomlinson scale (322). HENRY’S HALO is by a 4% debut turf sire. His dam went 3-0-1-1 for 31K on the green. Both sibs won on the grass. CRYSTAL ENERGY is by a 10% debut sire and a 0 for 4 debut turf sire. His dam went 10-2-0-3 for 24K (0 for 1 on the sod). Four of six sibs won while lone turfer didn’t hit the board in one start.

SEVENTH RACE

APARRI is feeling great, draws well, loves this dirt, and figures to stalk average splits. Her most recent was a Beyer top. The one to beat then. FOUR TIMES LUCKY has won two straight and 4 of 9 on this dirt. A wide trip couldn’t stop her previously and she missed a Beyer top by only two points. Not so sure about the added distance though. CUP OF SOUP comes in fresh and ready. Works are fine. Jockey Jake Barton is brimming with confidence.

EIGHTH RACE

COPPER CREEK has run evenly in both starts to date. Class dip makes perfect sense and he even has some speed. Recent work was sharp. SPEEDY PUIG has some solid figs. Most recent was good and now he goes second time this dirt. Yet to win in 17 starts is the main knock. KING REZA did get some play off the layoff. More pace to chase today. A weight break can’t hurt and he does have some upside with this being only his fourth start.