Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
ANALYSIS
FIRST RACE
IMPAZIBLE ANGELA is no cinch to stretch out effectively, but she has some early speed from the right post, and this is certainly a good spot to try it considering the competition; figure earned fro front-running maiden win three starts back makes her tough if she can repeat it, and she has since tried a stakes race, and then got outrun over a speed-favoring track. UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE one of only two in the field with a prior win around two-turns, as she won off by the length of the stretch last time vs. a modest field; good tactical speed over this trip. HAVEANICEWEEKEND tends to run the same race every time, which is not necessarily a bad thing in this kind of field, though she also tends to settle at the end; can keep up early, and will do her best through the stretch if in contention. TWOFREEKNIGHTS the other prior two-turn winner in the field, that victory coming in as low race where she overtook UNBRIDLED ADVENTURE in the stretch.
SECOND RACE
NAUTI BELLE went to Parx for return from a short layoff, and was outrun early in fast-paced sprint before coming wide and failing to factor; better spot here for trainer having a tough go of it right now, and her prior effort over the main track, which came against much better horses, makes her a contender. SHESMYHEARTANDSOUL earned the top last out figure in the field by a clear margin when turned back to sprint last time, and she was game in that spot while contesting the pace with an odds-on favorite all the way; drops again. FORRES LILY dropping to lowest level yet on dirt and turning back with a trainer change in her return to NY; contested the pace early before giving way over that one-turn mile last time, but she’s likely to have to do it from off the pace sprinting.
THIRD RACE
RO BEAR went to Finger Lakes to get lone dirt win in two-turn debut, but earned a competitive figure for that effort, and he has been up against it from trip/pace/track bias standpoint in each of his last two starts; thought he ran well in that last one while never managing to get into a position to run, and never getting over near the stronger inside paths, but would like to see him get forward here with Carmouche in race that lacks for much pace. READY DANCER settled for distant secondbest on the class drop last time, but he raced on gamely at the end, which is typical of him; has the back races to be considered the one to beat off the claim for a dangerous trainer, but he is a Pletcher give-up. WE DID may be best as a closing sprinter, but he has run his race going loner in the past, and he tends to outrun his odds when properly spotted, as he is here; needs some pace to develop. Last time was the time to have MOTOWN SOUND after a trip in that runner-up effort two back, but he can get forward in this race, which would help his chances for a repeat; new trainer strong off the claim.
FOURTH RACE
CERISE’S PRINCE raced greenly in that debut last summer after a slow start, and cost himself a little while drifting in badly in the stretch; well-bred colt can improve if ready off the layoff as he makes first start for Gargan, who gets them ready off of layoffs overall, especially his new acquisitions (past two years, first with trainer, 180+ day layoff on dirt: 3-for-5, $8.14 ROI, 2-for-3 in routes). VIRTUAL MACHINE also getting a trainer change off the layoff for his NY debut, though his new trainer hasn’t been strong off of layoffs like this; way the horse to beat entering with three straight Beyers in the mid-to-upper 80’s, and he has the positional speed to pull a trip, just has to be ready. Guess CUMBERLAND RIVER can have the muddy track excuse for that disaster last time, where he never picked up his feet, but he would be a tough sell at another short price; probably should have won in that improved effort off the layoff, but may have to do better than that in this spot.
FIFTH RACE
Not sure how good GINNED UP really is, but do prefer her on dirt and from a little off the pace, which should be an option for her in field containing plenty of pace; chased to no avail when drawn to the rail off the layoff, but she can settle more from the outside here in wide open race. BEE
NOTEWORTHY the one to beat, and a likely winner if she can repeat that last one when gamely second-best to a sharp winner with 78 Beyer; not sure where that one came from, at least the figure, though she has been in good form since returning from the sidelines last summer. HIS GIRL
FRIDAY tried gamely after a wide trip before just coming up short vs. several of these last time at a price; second time Lasix and likely a price once again. FIVE STAR RAMPAGE at least has a bit of a wildcard look to her after four straight over wet tracks, but she tends to take money, and it is worth pointing out that she rode a gold rail to victory on debut.
SIXTH RACE
BIG AL PARKER not easy to trust taking a big class drop off the long layoff, but he will not be easy for this field to beat if he shows up with something close to his best race; siding with him in race where no one else does much for me. THAT MAKES SENSE has rallied late to finish close at the end of each of his last two starts at this level, one sprinting and one routing; lack of early speed a concern, but he fits here with his typical race, and he is dangerous first off the Rudy claim. SMART RUSSIAN also getting major class relief for his first start back from a long layoff, though he doesn’t have the running lines of the top one; new trainer very underrated.
SEVENTH RACE
SHE’S INCREDIBLE a price in race where it’s tough to have too much faith in anyone, and she has been improving right along for good connections; no chance in that sprint over a speed-favoring track here on 12/29, but 79 Beyer she earned for mile win at GP last October, where she took the race to the two favorites around the turn, gives her a look, and she may have run even better last time when carrying a long sustained run by the oddson runnerup in the stretch. CAMILLE CLAUDEL another new face landing on a good spot, and she is perfectly drawn to the rail with some tactical speed; easy to like here as she drops out of pair of stakes for good trainer. OASIS AT MIDNIGHT was never able to factor behind TRUE HISTORY in a similar spot here last month, but she was way up against it there while trying a wide run into a rated pace, and actually did well to be 3rd; hasn’t won a race since December of 2014, but continues to race competitively. TRUE HISTORY has a perfect trip in that race, but was game to close down that rated pace, and is on good form. CHORUS LINE can be considered the horse to beat as she drops out of the Ladies with a clear Beyer advantage, and she is also tactical; wouldn’t want too short a price, but she can win.
EIGHTH RACE
STARRY MESSENGER disappointed when turned back off the claim last time, though that race did come over a muddy track; effort routing over this track two back was a solid one in a race that fell apart late, and a repeat may be good enough against this field. HANGRY and MR. CHARLES no great shakes, and they’ve had their chances, but they do tend to show up and one or both are likely to be in contention toward the late stages.