ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, SAPODILLA FIRST RACE

KLONDIKE CREEK is the horse to beat in this turf route for older maidens, first start in three months after beginning his career with an enterprising three-start campaign packed into slightly more than a month. Runner-up two back, third to a next out winner his most recent start, the colt has been freshened by Richard Mandella, appears to have trained well for his return, and has a pressing style that should lead to a good trip in a nine-furlong race likely to unfold at a tepid clip. CONQUEST SABRE CAT has an upset chance, second start in California and second start for a hot stable. ‘CAT broke slowly and split the field in his first local start six months ago. He returns for a stable that won with 5 of its last 16 starters; he also gets a 10-pound break from the favorite. CAN’T TOUCH THAT showed hints of ability both turf routes last spring-summer. This is his first start since July.

SECOND RACE

SAPODILLA looks tough to beat in this maiden20 sprint for fillies and mares, a class level that is highly predictable. Four of the six maiden-20s for females this meet were won by the favorite; another was won by the second choice. SAPODILLA drops to the bottom for the first time, she is quick enough to make the lead from the rail, and looks like a short price to wire the field. ANITA G. is a new face in an otherwise weak race. The first-time starter is by the good debut sire Rocky Bar; her works look decent. CANNED HEAT was outclassed in her debut vs. Cal-bred special weight maidens. She drops to rock bottom for her second start, adds blinkers and posted a bullet workout at Los Alamitos last week. Yes, improvement is likely.

THIRD RACE

The pick six begins here; PETE’S PLAY CALL and comebacker HILL FOUR ELEVEN are tough to separate. PETE’S PLAY CALL has the advantage due to recent racing, including a fast-pace starter allowance win here three weeks ago. The gelding has speed to establish position from the inside post. If he does not make the lead, he is likely to be tucked second behind the speed. His pace rival is comebacker HILL FOUR ELEVEN, frontrunning winner his first two starts, returning from a layoff of more than a year. He won his debut, so he obviously fires fresh, and his speed figures (90 and 83 Beyer) are higher than any the top choice has earned. ‘ELEVEN is optimistically and appropriately spotted at this new claiming level ($35k, non-winners three), for a trainer that can fire with layoffs. Steve Miyadi is 5-for-9 the past year with So Cal comebackers off more than 180 days. ‘ELEVEN will be one-two early. TOP FORTITUDE will roll from the back. He is an old-timer that has not won a race in nearly three years, but he always picks up the pieces.

FOURTH RACE

The racing surface was extremely slow last time for HONOR MAKER. She tried to wire the field, but surrendered in midstretch and finished a distant second. The surface (among the slowest of the meet) provides a built-in alibi; she comes back at the same level, and over a faster surface can win this mile race with a front-running/pressing trip. The trouble-prone filly PRINCESS LEIA gets a pivotal rider switch to Flavien Prat. The filly had another eventful trip last time and finished nowhere. She is better than that. Her maiden win two back was impressive, though it was a sprint in the mud. She certainly is bred for two turns (Awesome Again, A.P. Indy). FRIENDLY REQUEST, second across the wire both starts, stretches out for her new trainer. Phil D’Amato takes over for Cliff Sise; the lightly raced filly figures as a contender if she is more than a late-running sprinter.

FIFTH RACE

Cal-bred N1X 3yos sprint on the hill; lightly raced MR. HINX may have a future. His winning debut two back must be viewed to appreciate; he won without being asked, the runner-up returned to win. The second start for MR. HINX was okay, a route vs. stakes horses, he split the field. Not bad. Back to allowance, back to a sprint, if he handles turf and the inside post, he can win on raw ability. HOT SMOKE is a stakes-placed sprinter shortening from the same race. HOT SMOKE should like the turf, sired by Unusual Heat. Blinkers on, this is a good spot for the gelding. His sibling Rock Me Baby (by Rock Hard Ten) had a win and a second