ANAL­Y­SIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, TWO CHARLEY’S

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Aqueduct -

FIRST RACE

CIT­I­ZEN BY DAY se­cond off the lay­off and turn­ing back af­ter mak­ing the pace and set­tling for sec­ondbest in first start back for new trainer, for which she had two bar shoes off; good spot to break through if she can keep her­self in range early. BUST hasn’t run up to her best since claimed away from her prior trainer last Oc­to­ber, but looks like the best speed in the field; dan­ger­ous if she can avoid get­ting hooked up on the pace, as was the case in her last cou­ple of starts. MAMA’S RED HAT just about out of chances, but she will also ben­e­fit from the turn back af­ter press­ing CIT­I­ZEN BY DAY on the lead and giv­ing in last time; dirt sprint form isn’t ter­ri­ble.

SE­COND RACE

HOLD ON MOMMA had no ex­cuses on the drop and turn back last time, but she did bat­tle on gamely af­ter get­ting passed by the fa­vorite in the stretch; one more chance for trainer who is solid off the claim. KITAI just 1-for-21 to this point, but she has been raced over her head for the most part, and has held her own when prop­erly spot­ted; turns back. Wor­ried that ARCH OR NOTH­ING may not be able to run any­more, as her three starts since re­turn­ing from the lay­off have not been good, but this is the right kind of race to find out, and it is en­cour­ag­ing that Ra­jiv sticks with filly who once had some po­ten­tial. DOU­BLE DOSE, like KITAI, turn­ing back while drop­ping to a more ap­pro­pri­ate level, and she is also a con­tender, though she will be a much shorter price.

THIRD RACE

WON’T BURN stretch­ing out with fresh Lasix for se­cond ca­reer start, af­ter rac­ing a bit greenly in race that was dom­i­nated up front on de­but; dam has dropped noth­ing but run­ners, in­clud­ing a few route win­ners, and this is the right field for a light­lyraced run­ner to step up. STORM THE SHORE has run all of the fastest races in this field, though he has not come close to his best form since ar­riv­ing in NY at the turn of the year, and he has the speed to over­come the out­side draw; horse to beat, but not an easy one to trust. MADEYOURPOINT chased a front-run­ning win­ner to no avail and was out-fin­ished late when stretched back out at Parx last month; tries again. SUC­CESS­FUL ROSE took some money on de­but, but failed to show much of any­thing af­ter a poor start and trailed far be­hind WON’T BURN to the fin­ish; stretches out with blinkers on.

FOURTH RACE

TRULY HOT de­buted for a tag over a wet track at Lau­rel, and she landed a nice trip in that race, but she was an easy win­ner at the end of the day, and she is per­fectly drawn to de­ploy that tac­ti­cal speed once again; has to im­prove a lit­tle, but this is not a tough spot. LUNA RIS­ING fell short in the mud when dropped in for the first time two back, then stepped up a bit and won eas­ily with a new top fig­ure af­ter mak­ing the front; threat right back if able to run as well in this spot, though she has some speed to her out­side. SHE’S STUN­NING landed a per­fect trip and closed down next-out win­ner Court me with carats (70 Beyer) off the short lay­off; takes next log­i­cal step for trainer hav­ing a good meet. BLISS TO YOU of some in­ter­est at a big price, as she turns back and fi­nally gets some much needed class re­lief; has been in con­tention in some tougher spots along the way, and she will like this com­pany quite a bit bet­ter.

FIFTH RACE

WINE NOT may be more of a one-turn, big track horse, but he has run some races that fit well with this group, in­clud­ing that mile in the slop last Oc­to­ber when forced to go on with a fast pace, only to suc­cumb late; no idea what hap­pened when bomb­ing at the fa­vorite two back, but he is bet­ter than that, and should be able to set­tle early in this spot. UNREPENTING has im­proved since stretched out in dis­tance, and he is an­other who tends to put him­self in po­si­tion in his races; trainer has done well in NY from lim­ited tries (4-for-10, $5.04 ROI). JAMES LANE looked good win­ning first route at­tempt two back with a solid fig­ure;

hasn’t man­aged to back that race up in pair of sub­se­quent starts around two-turns, but there were some cir­cum­stances work­ing against him (speed-fa­vor­ing track two back, con­tested pace in a race that went to closers last time); can have one more chance as he adds the blinkers, but he gets bet. HERE COMES TOMMY in in good form and he did very well to be 3rd af­ter en­dur­ing a tough trip over that in­side, speed track last time, but he has been, and is, best used un­der­neath.

SIXTH RACE

Been awhile since MAK­ING HAVOC popped with one of her fast races, but she re­mains ca­pa­ble, and she was un­lucky last time when forced to do all the hard work on the pace af­ter trou­ble at the break put her in a tough po­si­tion; has some other speed to deal with her, but she should be go­ing if she breaks clean this time from the rail. DA WILD­CAT GIRL may be the one to beat as she drops back down while in form; fits this race well with her offthe-pace style, and she runs ev­ery time, though she is a lot more fun to fool around with when she isn’t one of the fa­vorites. OLD VALYRIA has much to prove on dirt af­ter giv­ing way read­ily from on the pace last time, but she was fac­ing much bet­ter horses there, and she did draw well on the out­side for the class drop.

SEV­ENTH RACE

TWO CHARLEY’S turn­ing back af­ter fin­ish­ing gamely for se­cond-best be­hind a clear-cut fron­trun­ning win­ner over this track 13 days ago; held his own in some very tough spots af­ter that game maiden win on de­but. TOGA CHAL­LENGER de­but­ing in the right kind of field for a first time starter, and he pulled a nice trip in that race, as well, but he was also much the best in that spot, and earned a solid fig­ure for his trou­ble; threat right back off the Rudy claim. HE CAN DANCE made a promis­ing de­but when one plac­ing ahead of El Areeb in short Parx sprint, and he came right back in his next start to bury Jersey-breds be­fore hit­ting the side­lines; was of­fered up off the lay­off, but he was pretty sharp there when cruising to an open lead around the turn be­fore start­ing to fall apart late, and his new trainer does very good work with new ac­qui­si­tions.

EIGHTH RACE

CHIEF LION has run few poor ones since ar­riv­ing here from Cal­i­for­nia, and he may have run the se­cond-best race last time, de­spite weak­en­ing late af­ter try­ing the sharp win­ner off the turn and get­ting out-fin­ished by a cou­ple of closers; doesn’t need the lead to be ef­fec­tive, but he is tough when he can con­trol, as may be the case in this spot. LIFE IN SHAM­BLES the one he has to beat drop­ping back down out of pair of stakes where he did his best to no avail; has turned things around since claimed by As­mussen, and he should not be com­pro­mised by dy­nam­ics. SAS­SI­CAIA one of three just start­ing back from a long lay­off, and may need a start or two to get go­ing, but he clearly im­proved once they started con­cen­trat­ing on sprint­ing with him, and he was go­ing good when last seen.

NINTH RACE

PSY­CHIC EN­ERGY was likely to pre­ferred part of a fa­vored en­try on de­but, where he chased wide be­fore tir­ing in the stretch; drops a bit for se­cond start, and likely to show more for trainer who has ex­celled with se­cond time start­ing maid­ens over­all (30% and a $2.71 ROI from a large sam­ple with­out any other fil­ters; 35-for-87, 40%, $3.45 ROI in dirt sprints). FROZEN AN­GEL the one to beat with the top two fig­ures on the way in; game try but missed af­ter a stretch-long duel when dropped to this level last time. Thought NUT NUT ran very well while forced to con­test the pace the en­tire way two starts back, and he was once again con­test­ing the pace ahead of PSY­CHIC EN­ERGY in that last one, be­fore prov­ing to be no match late; tough if he can get clear early. MO FO­CUSED has of­fered lit­tle in pair of starts for Pletcher, and he tried to bolt last time de­spite rac­ing as a new geld­ing; class drop helps, but he still has to im­prove.

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