ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, TWO CHARLEY’S

FIRST RACE

CITIZEN BY DAY second off the layoff and turning back after making the pace and settling for secondbest in first start back for new trainer, for which she had two bar shoes off; good spot to break through if she can keep herself in range early. BUST hasn’t run up to her best since claimed away from her prior trainer last October, but looks like the best speed in the field; dangerous if she can avoid getting hooked up on the pace, as was the case in her last couple of starts. MAMA’S RED HAT just about out of chances, but she will also benefit from the turn back after pressing CITIZEN BY DAY on the lead and giving in last time; dirt sprint form isn’t terrible.

SECOND RACE

HOLD ON MOMMA had no excuses on the drop and turn back last time, but she did battle on gamely after getting passed by the favorite in the stretch; one more chance for trainer who is solid off the claim. KITAI just 1-for-21 to this point, but she has been raced over her head for the most part, and has held her own when properly spotted; turns back. Worried that ARCH OR NOTHING may not be able to run anymore, as her three starts since returning from the layoff have not been good, but this is the right kind of race to find out, and it is encouraging that Rajiv sticks with filly who once had some potential. DOUBLE DOSE, like KITAI, turning back while dropping to a more appropriate level, and she is also a contender, though she will be a much shorter price.

THIRD RACE

WON’T BURN stretching out with fresh Lasix for second career start, after racing a bit greenly in race that was dominated up front on debut; dam has dropped nothing but runners, including a few route winners, and this is the right field for a lightlyraced runner to step up. STORM THE SHORE has run all of the fastest races in this field, though he has not come close to his best form since arriving in NY at the turn of the year, and he has the speed to overcome the outside draw; horse to beat, but not an easy one to trust. MADEYOURPOINT chased a front-running winner to no avail and was out-finished late when stretched back out at Parx last month; tries again. SUCCESSFUL ROSE took some money on debut, but failed to show much of anything after a poor start and trailed far behind WON’T BURN to the finish; stretches out with blinkers on.

FOURTH RACE

TRULY HOT debuted for a tag over a wet track at Laurel, and she landed a nice trip in that race, but she was an easy winner at the end of the day, and she is perfectly drawn to deploy that tactical speed once again; has to improve a little, but this is not a tough spot. LUNA RISING fell short in the mud when dropped in for the first time two back, then stepped up a bit and won easily with a new top figure after making the front; threat right back if able to run as well in this spot, though she has some speed to her outside. SHE’S STUNNING landed a perfect trip and closed down next-out winner Court me with carats (70 Beyer) off the short layoff; takes next logical step for trainer having a good meet. BLISS TO YOU of some interest at a big price, as she turns back and finally gets some much needed class relief; has been in contention in some tougher spots along the way, and she will like this company quite a bit better.

FIFTH RACE

WINE NOT may be more of a one-turn, big track horse, but he has run some races that fit well with this group, including that mile in the slop last October when forced to go on with a fast pace, only to succumb late; no idea what happened when bombing at the favorite two back, but he is better than that, and should be able to settle early in this spot. UNREPENTING has improved since stretched out in distance, and he is another who tends to put himself in position in his races; trainer has done well in NY from limited tries (4-for-10, $5.04 ROI). JAMES LANE looked good winning first route attempt two back with a solid figure;

hasn’t managed to back that race up in pair of subsequent starts around two-turns, but there were some circumstances working against him (speed-favoring track two back, contested pace in a race that went to closers last time); can have one more chance as he adds the blinkers, but he gets bet. HERE COMES TOMMY in in good form and he did very well to be 3rd after enduring a tough trip over that inside, speed track last time, but he has been, and is, best used underneath.

SIXTH RACE

Been awhile since MAKING HAVOC popped with one of her fast races, but she remains capable, and she was unlucky last time when forced to do all the hard work on the pace after trouble at the break put her in a tough position; has some other speed to deal with her, but she should be going if she breaks clean this time from the rail. DA WILDCAT GIRL may be the one to beat as she drops back down while in form; fits this race well with her offthe-pace style, and she runs every time, though she is a lot more fun to fool around with when she isn’t one of the favorites. OLD VALYRIA has much to prove on dirt after giving way readily from on the pace last time, but she was facing much better horses there, and she did draw well on the outside for the class drop.

SEVENTH RACE

TWO CHARLEY’S turning back after finishing gamely for second-best behind a clear-cut frontrunning winner over this track 13 days ago; held his own in some very tough spots after that game maiden win on debut. TOGA CHALLENGER debuting in the right kind of field for a first time starter, and he pulled a nice trip in that race, as well, but he was also much the best in that spot, and earned a solid figure for his trouble; threat right back off the Rudy claim. HE CAN DANCE made a promising debut when one placing ahead of El Areeb in short Parx sprint, and he came right back in his next start to bury Jersey-breds before hitting the sidelines; was offered up off the layoff, but he was pretty sharp there when cruising to an open lead around the turn before starting to fall apart late, and his new trainer does very good work with new acquisitions.

EIGHTH RACE

CHIEF LION has run few poor ones since arriving here from California, and he may have run the second-best race last time, despite weakening late after trying the sharp winner off the turn and getting out-finished by a couple of closers; doesn’t need the lead to be effective, but he is tough when he can control, as may be the case in this spot. LIFE IN SHAMBLES the one he has to beat dropping back down out of pair of stakes where he did his best to no avail; has turned things around since claimed by Asmussen, and he should not be compromised by dynamics. SASSICAIA one of three just starting back from a long layoff, and may need a start or two to get going, but he clearly improved once they started concentrating on sprinting with him, and he was going good when last seen.

NINTH RACE

PSYCHIC ENERGY was likely to preferred part of a favored entry on debut, where he chased wide before tiring in the stretch; drops a bit for second start, and likely to show more for trainer who has excelled with second time starting maidens overall (30% and a $2.71 ROI from a large sample without any other filters; 35-for-87, 40%, $3.45 ROI in dirt sprints). FROZEN ANGEL the one to beat with the top two figures on the way in; game try but missed after a stretch-long duel when dropped to this level last time. Thought NUT NUT ran very well while forced to contest the pace the entire way two starts back, and he was once again contesting the pace ahead of PSYCHIC ENERGY in that last one, before proving to be no match late; tough if he can get clear early. MO FOCUSED has offered little in pair of starts for Pletcher, and he tried to bolt last time despite racing as a new gelding; class drop helps, but he still has to improve.