ANAL­Y­SIS

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BEST BET: RACE 1, AN­GEL FALLS

FIRST RACE

AN­GEL FALLS looms the con­trol­ling speed in this short field, and that clearly gives her an edge; in ad­di­tion to that she has some of the bet­ter Bey­ers in the field, mak­ing her a rel­a­tively short price but also mak­ing her a very for­mi­da­ble foe in the opener. HIGH HEEL LADY has some early zip but she’s at her best when she’s able to take back and make a late bid; should get first run at the top pick. METTEMARLAMELVA comes of a win against lesser but she ran a solid race for the show at this level two back.

SE­COND RACE

COLONY CROSS­ING failed to threaten in her two starts over this track thus far but she was against the race flow in both of those races, and in fact ran bet­ter than her run­ning lines might in­di­cate; should have no pace ex­cuses in this sprint, which fea­tures a cou­ple of pure speeds. PINK MAMA is one of those likely to be in­volved from the start, though she doesn’t nec­es­sar­ily have to be on the front end; it is that ver­sa­til­ity that may give her the edge on the other speeds. LOVETHISLIFE rises in price off the lay­off, which is en­cour­ag­ing; she was clearly in good form prior to the break.

THIRD RACE

SMOKE N THE BOT­TLE is back from the lay­off and back on her best sur­face, as she has posted two of her three ca­reer wins over this par­tic­u­lar strip; she’s widest of the seven en­tered but she has the tac­ti­cal speed to get po­si­tion. MY LIT­TLE DAR­LINGS fits well enough on the strength of that last Beyer, and she has back fig­ures which are plenty suf­fi­cient; should be prom­i­nent from the start. FRIS­BEE comes out o ab­bre­vi­ated sprints and could be the one to catch to­day.

FOURTH RACE

MATCHBOOK LILLY ships over from Tur­fway Park and seems like a strong fit with the lo­cals, es­pe­cially given her early zip, as this sprint is a lit­tle light on proven pace; needs ag­gres­sive han­dling early in or­der to ex­ploit that edge. LADY GRE­GO­RIA prompted the pace and fin­ished 2nd be­hind a closer in her lat­est but she will be tough with a for­ward trip to­day, due to the afore­men­tioned pace sce­nario; top con­nec­tions in­volved. CHAM­BORD LACE cuts back to a sprint but may still have enough speed to stay close in the open­ing stages, which would give her the edge on the stone closers.

FIFTH RACE

LEAD­ING YOU ON is in from Bel­terra Park but she has run here be­fore and she ran well enough in those ap­pear­ances to sug­gest she’ll fit with this mod­est group; seems to need the lead but she could be quick­est of all the pace can­di­dates. MISS WICK­HAM had trou­ble keep­ing up in her lat­est but it was a race which set up well for the closers, and she may have needed a race off the lay­off; im­prove­ment ex­pected. MI TIA CHRISTINA is down in price and thus a threat with th­ese; dan­ger­ous if she can run to that ef­fort she turned in two back.

SIXTH RACE

Hop­ing that BUCK­ING THUN­DER can get clear in the open­ing stages and es­tab­lish a loose lead, as the race lacks pace and he could be tough to catch if he’s able to back down the frac­tions; would need that type of ad­van­tage to beat the fa­vorites in here. CAL­ICO KITTEN dis­ap­pointed in his lat­est but he seemed to move pre­ma­turely; can move way up with a bet­ter-timed run. LIGHT­HOUSE SOUND is the one to beat on the strength of his Bey­ers, which are the best fig­ures in the field; makes his first start off the Ness claim, which makes him even more dan­ger­ous, but it also hurts his value fur­ther.

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