ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, ANGEL FALLS

FIRST RACE

ANGEL FALLS looms the controlling speed in this short field, and that clearly gives her an edge; in addition to that she has some of the better Beyers in the field, making her a relatively short price but also making her a very formidable foe in the opener. HIGH HEEL LADY has some early zip but she’s at her best when she’s able to take back and make a late bid; should get first run at the top pick. METTEMARLAMELVA comes of a win against lesser but she ran a solid race for the show at this level two back.

SECOND RACE

COLONY CROSSING failed to threaten in her two starts over this track thus far but she was against the race flow in both of those races, and in fact ran better than her running lines might indicate; should have no pace excuses in this sprint, which features a couple of pure speeds. PINK MAMA is one of those likely to be involved from the start, though she doesn’t necessarily have to be on the front end; it is that versatility that may give her the edge on the other speeds. LOVETHISLIFE rises in price off the layoff, which is encouraging; she was clearly in good form prior to the break.

THIRD RACE

SMOKE N THE BOTTLE is back from the layoff and back on her best surface, as she has posted two of her three career wins over this particular strip; she’s widest of the seven entered but she has the tactical speed to get position. MY LITTLE DARLINGS fits well enough on the strength of that last Beyer, and she has back figures which are plenty sufficient; should be prominent from the start. FRISBEE comes out o abbreviated sprints and could be the one to catch today.

FOURTH RACE

MATCHBOOK LILLY ships over from Turfway Park and seems like a strong fit with the locals, especially given her early zip, as this sprint is a little light on proven pace; needs aggressive handling early in order to exploit that edge. LADY GREGORIA prompted the pace and finished 2nd behind a closer in her latest but she will be tough with a forward trip today, due to the aforementioned pace scenario; top connections involved. CHAMBORD LACE cuts back to a sprint but may still have enough speed to stay close in the opening stages, which would give her the edge on the stone closers.

FIFTH RACE

LEADING YOU ON is in from Belterra Park but she has run here before and she ran well enough in those appearances to suggest she’ll fit with this modest group; seems to need the lead but she could be quickest of all the pace candidates. MISS WICKHAM had trouble keeping up in her latest but it was a race which set up well for the closers, and she may have needed a race off the layoff; improvement expected. MI TIA CHRISTINA is down in price and thus a threat with these; dangerous if she can run to that effort she turned in two back.

SIXTH RACE

Hoping that BUCKING THUNDER can get clear in the opening stages and establish a loose lead, as the race lacks pace and he could be tough to catch if he’s able to back down the fractions; would need that type of advantage to beat the favorites in here. CALICO KITTEN disappointed in his latest but he seemed to move prematurely; can move way up with a better-timed run. LIGHTHOUSE SOUND is the one to beat on the strength of his Beyers, which are the best figures in the field; makes his first start off the Ness claim, which makes him even more dangerous, but it also hurts his value further.