ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, I CAT FIRST RACE

CHARNOCKS was no threat in his first start off the layoff despite some nice return works but that may have been too short for him, and perhaps he needed the race; expecting him to improve here, as he turned in another nice breeze in the interim. KITCHEN POLICE may be the main speed, no small consideration given the general lack of pace in this field; dangerous if able to shake loose. SUPREME JUSTICE was against the race flow in a route last time but he earned another decent figure, and his recent Beyers have been consistent; certainly a factor but he could be too late if the pace is controlled.

SECOND RACE

BAREFOOT COVE is clearly a bit of a reach as he lands in an ambitious spot in his first start vs. winners but that score against maiden claimers was better than it may look, and the Beyer is faster than par for the class and distance; he certainly needs to post a better figure to win this but he has room to improve, as he seems to be a new horse on this surface and this is only his second start on the grass. CALVADOS was behind several of these in his latest but he was moving well in the late stages and he galloped out strongly; scored at this distance two back, and he should appreciate getting that extra sixteenth of a mile back. TREE FIRE was a game winner against a deep field of $16,000 claimers; may be good enough with a clean trip and the right set-up.

THIRD RACE

I CAT benefited greatly from a favorable race flow in his latest but he’s in a similar situation in terms of pace again today, and he’s going to be tough to reel in if he’s able to set a controlled pace, as expected; if he’s able to run back to that last Beyer he’s going to be a handful, especially if CHINA PRINCE is unable to run back to his latest. BETTER MAN was game in defeat in his latest and he scored two back, clearly indicating he’s in good form; overall win percentage is lacking some but he has posted all four of his victories over this strip. CHINA PRINCE will likely win this if he’s able to run to his last Beyer but he’s more likely to regress off that run, as he benefited from race flow and a perfect trip.

FOURTH RACE

HIDALGO continues to run well in defeat, with his latest his best effort yet; makes his third start off the layoff and may finally put it all together here with another step forward. ASSERTION was no threat in his first start off the short break but that was a much better group, and though he was far back he earned a decent figure in the loss, an indication of how strong the Beyer was; stone closer needs pace but given a contested pace up front he may be able to make the last run here. EYEING VICTORY merits a long look despite being away for over a year but that last figure and the connections involved give him strong credibility; not sure a very light price is warranted, however.

FIFTH RACE

IRON RUN chased a duel and weakened in the late stages in his bow but this looks like a kinder race flow for him, and he may in fact be the one they have to catch; he was flattered when the show horse from that race, Bright Blue, returned to win on Thursday. SATURDAY FUN was no threat in his latest but if he can stay closer in the opening stages here he can improve off that running line,

as he was too far back in the early going there, as there was not a whole lot of pace in the field; runner-up in that field returned to run 2nd again here on Thursday. I’M A CATMAN comes out of the same race as SATURDAY FUN, and though he was no threat he did encounter some early trouble.

SIXTH RACE

GIANT’S PASSION comes off a sprint and switches to turf and he seems to be in a good spot to use his speed to his best advantage, as this field does look to be vulnerable to a loose pacesetter; thinking he can steal it given aggressive handling in the opening stages. GABO rallied very strongly to get the show in his return to the grass last time, and he should be a stretch threat once again; a controlled pace up front will hurt his chances but he’d certainly benefit if FABOURG MARIGNY were to push the top pick in the opening stages. BOSCO BOB’S BABY is tough to take seriously as a win candidate given the overall record but he continues to race in good form, and that makes him an exotics threat.

SEVENTH RACE

CLEVER RUN stretches out and catches a fairly paceless group for her first start since midDecember; she’s had some trouble lasting in her route tries since the maiden win but those were against better fields than she meets here. CARELLA was no threat to the winner in her last try on the dirt but she was game to get the place, closing late in a race which was light on pace; looks like the one to beat. SUMMERTIME GAL was game to break her maiden in an off-the-turf race last time out, and the figure was better than expected; may be good enough to make an impact in her first start against winners.

EIGHTH RACE

SOUTHERN RING has never raced on dirt but if she can show the kind of speed she’s displayed in her turf and synthetic races she will be formidable here, and her pedigree suggests that shouldn’t be an issue; she has the option of going for the lead or sitting off fellow speed SPANISH CONCERT, and that versatility is exactly what makes her tough. NO FAULT OF MINE impressed in that win in the Wayward Lass, and though she shortens up for this she has had success at this distance; looms the main threat in the lane. SPANISH CONCERT has won two of her last three against lesser, with the lone loss coming when she was sent seven furlongs two back; figures prominent from the start, and she is eligible to steal it if she’s allowed to set an unpressured pace on the front end.

NINTH RACE

BOUDICEA’S REVENGE was off the board but she ran a creditable race in her lone start on the main track thus far, in her bow at Keeneland, and she’s easily forgiven for tiring in that turf route after she was caught up in a duel from the start; she’s turned in some nice works since that effort. LOZEN was a victim of race flow in her latest but she did well to get the show; she turns back to one turn today and she’d benefit greatly from a quick, contested pace up front. CREDIT ALERT failed to improve with the blinkers added for her last, and they are just as quickly removed; she caught the eye in her debut with some late run after a slow start, and she galloped out well.

TENTH RACE

TIGER BLOOD didn’t break cleanly in that optional claimer last time, and that cost him position, but he rallied strongly through the lane and galloped out past the wire with vigor; he showed great promise at the start of his career here last year and he has license to run a big race in the Pelican if he can break with the field this time around. FUTILE beat the top pick in their meeting last time out, gamely staving off all challenges despite setting a pressured pace in a race which featured other speed; a winner of four of five career starts and clearly at the top of his game, he’s the one to catch despite making his stakes debut. SCHIVARELLI faced better in his last try, at Gulfstream, and he’s a logical player given his back figures and class; obvious danger, though he could be overbet some.

ELEVENTH RACE

MARQUETEER was a clear 2nd behind the favorite in his latest in a race that came up very fast for the class and distance, with Dancing King posting a winning Beyer of 73 where par is 61; that one came back to win his next start, albeit with a regression in figures, and that bodes well for MARQUETEER, who seems to meet no such rivals here. SEVENTY SEVEN WILOW took advantage of the race flow to close for the place in his latest, the fifth straight time he’s hit the board against non-winners of two; certainly one to consider, though he’s more likely to complete the exacta than he is to key it given his recent form. BROTHER FRED may be the right value play for the exotics; he comes out of the same fast race as the top pick and he was caught off the pace in races where speed held the edge in prior tries.