ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, YOUR SECRET’S SAFE

FIRST RACE

PARIS MOON a firster in the right kind of field, and perhaps the best alternative to likely heavy favorite MELODRAMATIC MISS, who seems one to take another shot against; PARIS MOON has some pedigree from a nice outside post, and her trainer has a solid record with first time starters sprinting on the inner dirt (past five years, 6-for25, 24%, $3.04 ROI). MELODRAMATIC MISS will break through one of theses days, but she is one to try to beat until she does, after failing without real excuse in each of her last two starts at oddson. SECRET EDEN took a hold early on in first start off the layoff, and then tried to chase MELODRAMATIC MISS on the lead before giving way in the stretch; can do better in second start back.

SECOND RACE

VERDANT PASTURES ran a couple of inexplicably poor races after very good debut effort on a strong pace, but she was back to a good one on the stretch out last time when powering right to the front and exhausting favored No Hayne No Gayne (who came right back to win) on a chase; looks like the controlling speed once again in field where no one has come close to 68 Beyer she earned last time. ARCHUMYBABY dropped in class for the stretch out last time, and won a slow race as a very heavy favorite; in her (slight) defense, that race did feature a fast pace for the level, and it did appear that she tried to pull herself up after easily taking over in the stretch. PEACHES AND SPICE closed from far back to break her maiden two starts back, and she made another decent run to be a gaining 2nd to a heavily-favored winner last time; will try to pick up some pieces once again.

THIRD RACE

YOUR SECRET’S SAFE had no chance with Mo Town in lone route try as a 2yo, which came over a muddy track, but he earned a 72 Beyer for the effort, a figure he will not have to improve upon by too much as he starts back off the layoff; faced pair of tough fields sprinting surrounding that mile try, and appeared to run a better race in the last one with new blinkers despite having to go wide in a race that was dominated on the front end. GLENNRICHMENT did little running in first two starts of his career, but he did improve first time blinkers and first time fast dirt when lunging late to just miss catching stablemate Miggsy on the wire; holds an entry into Saturday’s Gotham, but is likely to await this spot. ROBBINS made a similar run to that of GLENNRICHMENT and was on even terms with that one down past mid-stretch before flattening out last time; think he’s okay, but am not so sure that I think he has improved stretching out.

FOURTH RACE

PICTURE DAY was stuck on a dead rail when outkicked by MISS AMALITA two starts back, then dropped to win here two weeks ago in a race where she pulled a soft trip, but she also buried that field with a strong figure, and it’s not like she has never run a similar good race in the past; not sure how easy she is to trust, but do think her best race gets it done for trainer who has a strong record with last out winners. MISS AMALITA was dirtied up a bit entering that last one, where she pulled an upset with a late run; not much pace signed on to this race, but she is no one-run closer, anyway. SABRINA BALLERINA has the advantage of being the apparent lone speed in this field, which could go along way toward enhancing her chances; gave way on the lead last time, but that was a sloppy track she didn’t have to love, and think she faced a bit better than this in her prior two starts at this level.

FIFTH RACE

This race has some new additions and a tougher feel after Thursday’s cancellation, but will stick with BUNYAAN who showed speed over a muddy track when returned from a long layoff and gave

way in the stretch, then tried some different tactics last time when strongly rated early to no avail; back in with maiden claimers for third start back, and his only other attempt for a tag was an excellent effort when blowing the turn and taking himself right out of contention, and then rallying late to somehow get within a couple of lengths of the leaders at the end. EMOTICON also back down in class after getting outrun by MSW foes at Parx last time; caught a muddy track off the claim at this level two back, but he was dead game in that spot after contesting the pace virtually throughout, and the new additions didn’t add much pace. ACOUSTIC and HE’S CHEEKY new faces for Rudy, and both are contenders, but are no great shakes as a short-priced entry; Acoustic earned a solid figure last time, but he also appeared to hang badly in that race. SUPER PSYCHE dropping for the first time, but he has been bad in two races following the long layoff, and he is another with a habit of hanging on the money. Wanted to like WINGMAN more second off the layoff and dropping on the stretch out for Hushion (6 for last 15 with maidens stretching out on dirt, $3.40 ROI), but he has done no running in first two starts.

SIXTH RACE

OLD UPSTART was a very good 4th closing in a race with no pace the last time he sprinted, then was stepped up over his head off the claim; drops back down and turns back in distance for trainer with good numbers route to sprint, and he has some back races that give him a real chance here. MEWANNAROSE got clear early over a track that was carrying inside speed last time, but it’s not like he hasn’t run several races that make him tough here without any advantage at all; claimed again, this time by Rudy/Dubb, but he has run strong races for every trainer he has ever been with. BETWEEN THE LINES starting back on the drop following 267 days on the sidelines, and doing so after being listed as a vet scratch out of a tougher spot a few weeks ago; tough to take on top considering the warning signs, but he can go with these horses if he’s close to right, and he likes the inner.

SEVENTH RACE

NOBODY MOVE has posted both career wins sprinting over wet tracks, but his fast dirt route form is fine, and it has come vs. some much tougher competition; dropping for this after dull effort on New Year’s Day where he was reported after the race to have bled, and he has the positional speed to pull a trip. NOMINAL DOLLARS not likely to ever get back to that 92 Beyer he earned three races back, but his overall form fits as he drops back down in class, and he is a true two-turn horse. READY DANCER was against the track when a chasing 2nd in his first start off the claim, and he is another who fits well at this level; best efforts have come when able to catch some pace to run at, and there is some speed in this field. BATTERY a wildcard dropping off the long layoff for Pletcher; has dirt form, but it all comes down to price.

EIGHTH RACE

Ultimately settled for FLICK OF AN EYE in race where it was tough to fall too hard for anyone; has tactical speed from a nice post toward the inside, and Sciacca is underrated nd off the claim. MARIA GOT EVEN may not be able to race competitively in NY, but that was clearly too tough a spot last time, and she is a 14-time winner; drops helps and it is that kind of race. STROKE PLAY has the back form to be hard on this kind of field, but it is hard to take a strong positive position on mare who went away for over six months off the claim, and that after totally bombing on the class drop.

NINTH RACE

JETER isn’t the most likely winner of this race, but he has been back in form for his last couple of starts, especially that last one when closing down a slow pace with a good late run, and he should have plenty of pace to run at this time. JOHN’S

ISLAND has been entered for cheaper tags over the past couple of weeks, but he was never running in those races; still not a great sign that Jacobson is looking to run his back below the $40k he took him for, but he has a lot going for him, otherwise. GLOBAL POSITIONING is going to need to catch some breaks to factor vs. this field, but he is

capable from off the pace, and thought he ran well last time when gamely part of a competitive pace before tiring late over a longer distance.

TENTH RACE

LATE NIGHT KISS got out-paced on a steep turn back last time, then caught some traffic while failing to factor as the favorite; prior effort sprinting in NY was a solid try as part of a contested pace that was falling apart at the end. MY EKATI CAT logical as she faces maiden claimers for the first time on dirt; likely tough to hold late if she can avoid getting outrun early. PROMISE ME TIZ cleared off before proving no match for a strong winner here last weekend, but was a clear 2nd with a new top figure; been in form that would make her competitive here, if nothing else.