ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, DIAMOND EARRING

FIRST RACE

Hard to truly feel confident about anyone in the opener .... WELL BLESSED rates on top with a class drop but she’s lost four in a row at odds of between 3-2 and 4-5, and now she returns off a layoff; only the selection due to the weak nature of this field. FLASHY VAL is her primary foe, a filly that has hit the board in three straight races against similar; she, too, has a history of short-priced defeats. SOUTHERN N’ SASSY is cut back to a turf sprint after a speed and fade in a route; five-furlong turf dashes earlier this year were somewhat respectable.

SECOND RACE

PROUD ENOUGH ran well off a 14-month hiatus to be third at this $12,500 N2L class level, only missing second by a nose; likely winner if he avoids a bounce. BOURBON CITY blew away maiden $12,500 competition last out and now faces winners. Although he won in a romp last out, the time was slow, resulting in just a 51 Beyer. SUPER STAN is among the classiest runners in the field, but was last, beaten 26 lengths, in his only dirt start; connections have kept him almost exclusively on turf, but you can only go so slow on the grass here at Gulf.

THIRD RACE

BULL DOZER starts for a winning barn and is a 20-time winner from 69 starts. A class drop from an optional claimer into a $16,000 race should get him back on track. DANCIN IN THE HEAT has won two of his last three starts, including his latest for this $16,000 price; prefers a mile but a winner also going seven eighths. CHIEF ENVOY disappointed last out after some traffic issues Feb. 8, and that was a comeback race, anyway; had previously been second to BULL DOZER in a race here in December.

FOURTH RACE

TIGER PAW should fire fresh off a short break after a long series of works at Palm Meadows; solid form on the grass, and coming off an allowance win on the Poly at Turfway. STEEL SKY has proven that he fits against $30,000 N3L competition on the grass with a number of on-the-board finishes; tactical speed to be close. CHIEF KITTEN, a stakes horse in 2014 and 2015, has been rounding into form after nearly a year and a half on the sidelines; claimed from his latest when third in a $16,000 N3L.

FIFTH RACE

UNBRIDLED OUTLAW ran well from post 12 last out to be third in his grass debut; graded placed on dirt earlier in his career; runs his best races for Lanerie. WAR STROLL rallied to be fourth, a length behind the top choice, when they met Feb. 18; that following a third her and an allowance win in a turf sprint at Churchill. ARCATURE moves into the Chad Brown stable after going unplaced in his final three races of 2016; was a stakes winner at Santa Anita in May of last year, and now must shake off the rust from a layoff going back to Sept. 4.

SIXTH RACE

HORNER MAN is returned to dirt after a failed try on the grass off the claim; won the past two times he moved turf to dirt. MADROOS is regularly a factor in low-end N3L claimers like this one; blew a clear lead last out Feb. 22 in the slop when third and was 3 1/2 lengths behind the top choice when they met a start earlier on Feb. 3. MASS APPROVAL managed to run second Feb. 16, albeit in a very slow race - it took this gelding over 1:22 to complete 6 1/2 furlongs, albeit on a tiring surface.

SEVENTH RACE

The speedy SMOKEY, a winner of two straight after a fifth first out, interested high-percentage trainer Jorge Navarro enough that he claimed him in the rise from $16,000 to $35,000 last time; also beat EPIC DRAMA in his last start. COORS LUTE won first out in a maiden $50,000 race by 3 1/2 lengths, though the time wasn’t special; well suited to a starter $50,000 race. MY FRIEND should appreciate facing easier after running in restricted stakes in his last two starts; was disappointing last out on Feb. 20 but had previously been second to pretty nice sprinter in Uncle B at OBS.

EIGHTH RACE

6-1 shot VEIL debuted with a second here a year ago, and then was fifth at Keeneland as the favorite; sidelined since, she returns against a weak field, which may allow her to overcome the time away. FUERZA ran third in her debut when racing in a similar spot here Jan. 16; had worked a bullet on the grass at Palm Meadows before that, and has since been working pretty quickly on the main track there. NO FAULT crossed the wire first in an off-the-grass race at Tampa Feb. 8 but was taken down for drifting out in the stretch and causing interference; is a versatile filly that handles turf seemingly as well as dirt.

NINTH RACE

STARSHIP SASSY is just 3 for 28 lifetime with a history of 2nds and 3rds over her career, but is in good form and coming off a lifetime best 81 Beyer; also did at least record two of her victories last year. WHIPSNADE encountered trouble when fifth last out but is typically an honest performer on the grass; winning jockey/trainer combo with Walsh and Leparoux. RONTOS LILY is the class but returns a mere five days after running seventh behind Celestine and Catch a Glimpse in the Sand Springs Stakes on Saturday.

TENTH RACE

DIAMOND EARRING is speedy and classy, plus owns the top last-race Beyer, a 78; standout. CALLING ME HOME faces better after just lasting against first-level Florida-bred allowance competition Feb. 1; first or second in 6 of 11 starts on fast dirt tracks. LADY CONSTANCE has shown promise at times but hasn’t been out since running a distant third as the favorite at Keeneland Oct. 28; did win fresh here a year ago.

ELEVENTH RACE

SCANDALS KEEP COMING has established herself as a solid conditioned claiming runner when sprinting on the grass; crossed the wire a close second here Feb. 17, though she was ultimately placed fifth for interference. MIDNIGHT TALE debuted with a second before graduating second out in a five-furlong maiden $20,000 claimer going five furlongs on the grass; winning jock and barn, but untested vs. winners. PUZZLED LOOK races for a tag for the first time after coming up empty in the stretch of two allowance routes at Tampa; maybe the cutback helps her but she isn’t particularly quick early.