ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, POSHSKY

FIRST RACE

PAPPOU, a 15-start maiden, drops from specialweight to maiden-claiming. Fastest in the field on figures, the gelding is the vanilla selection in a five-horse field. MOONLIGHT BLUE returns from an extended layoff with enough speed to possibly make the lead. Trainer Vladimir Cerin is 3-for-7 this winter with comebackers off six months or more. TIZ NO BLUFF, third last out in a non-productive maiden-40, will grind away late. Three of the five rivals he faces last out returned to run, none hit the board.

SECOND RACE

Runner-up at this level and distance last month, PROSPECT PARK is the “now” horse facing a host of comebackers; his pressing style should play well in a nine-furlong turf race void of pace. A graded turf winner in 2015, with speed to be positioned on or near likely slow fractions, PROSPECT PARK looks obvious. The two most recent nine-furlong turf races here on “firm” were won by wire-to-wire favorites. Same situation. WANSTEAD GARDENS returns from a layoff of more than three months. His form last summer and fall includes a comeback win last summer at this level. He runs well fresh, has won at this class level, and will roll late. BIG JOHN B is a multiple graded winner returning from an 11-month layoff. Nine furlongs is probably shorter than he prefers, but he will be finishing. FARHAAN is an East Coast shipper with summerfall speed figures that put him in the hunt.

THIRD RACE

Though second-time starter TIZ SIRIUS has only marginal ability, he may have more speed than he showed first out. He was uncomfortable inside runners and behind the pacesetter, tossed his head while racing greenly, and backed up. He drops from maiden-50 to the rock-bottom maiden20, shortens to five furlongs, and is expected to produce speed. SOLAR ZONE is a 12-start maiden that has raced six times at this bottom level, and finished in the money every time. Though not particularly quick, he has enough speed to keep the top choice in his sights. He will grind away late. CHAMPIONS DINNER drops from special-weight for his first start in nearly a year. Since the start of last year, trainer Mike Puype is 7-for-15 with maiden comebackers off six months or more. On that trainer stat alone, CHAMPIONS DINNER is a “must use.”

FOURTH RACE

Although A. P. ZONA is the likely favorite based on recent high figures, the improved LOUD STALKER could give him a battle. The two pace-pressers are the principals in this sprint for claiming 3yos. A. P. ZONA scored a convincing maiden-50 win last out, drew an outside post this time, and should get a pressing trip in the clear. The 2-3-4 finishers behind him returned to run well; trainer Molly Pearson is 5-for-10 with Southern California favorites the past four years. However, LOUD STALKER offers value. He was claimed by Jack Carava (two wins last week) from a solid maiden-30 win, and has speed to possibly make the lead. The top two are the only front-runners in this small field. TCHULA SUNSET, a three-time winner, rallied to a sharp win at a slightly lower level. He will finish. RUN MACHO RUN has raced three times on “fast,” with two wins and a second. Class dropper OOPER WALLAH is the first mount back for Gary Stevens following hip-replacement surgery.

FIFTH RACE

POSHSKY, nine-time winner of more than $500k, gets an ideal scenario for his closing style and enters this $50k claiming turf mile as the most probable winner on the card. Claimed last out by Eddie Truman, the veteran closer meets a field in which two main rivals are front-runners. That pair is likely to contest the pace; POSHSKY can sit, wait and rally late for the win. RYE PATCH and HOBBITS HERO are the aforementioned frontrunners. RYE PATCH drops slightly in class after a sharp runner-up finish setting a fast pace at a mile and one-eighth. He benefits by the shorter mile distance, but must deal with the front-runner to his direct inside. That is HOBBITS HERO, who has trained well since being claimed. Trouble is, his running style is the same as the horse to his outside. Those two could get in each other’s way. COUNTY LINEMAN will roll late.

SIXTH RACE

RUNASAURUS REX and OVER ACHIEVER are the principals in this $12.5k claiming route. The call is RUNASAURUS REX, even though he was fortunate to win last out. A rival setting the pace was on his way to victory when he inexplicably tried to jump the rail and fell. ‘REX was positioned to take advantage and won while probably second-best. But the lightly raced (3-for-7) gelding was claimed by Doug O’Neill, is now 2-for-2 at Santa Anita and optimistically double-jumped in class. However, if OVER ACHIEVER reproduces his last start, he could be tough to beat as the possible favorite. He won a $10k claiming route by more than five lengths; the race was validated when the thirdplace finisher returned to win a Cal-bred allowance via disqualification. OVER ACHIEVER is a win type (5 last 11), with good figures and a pressing style that should lead to a good trip. He is expected to start favored. CARLSBAD MOUNTAIN is a veteran pace-presser dropping in class; SPUD SPIVENS drops two levels for his second start back.

SEVENTH RACE

An intriguing N1X for 3yos includes Derby candidates REACH THE WORLD and BATTLE OF MIDWAY, and romping maiden-75 winner SHARP SAMURAI. Tough to separate; REACH THE WORLD is racing into form and using this route as a prep for the Santa Anita Derby. His debut was a good third in a route; he followed with a front-running maiden route win that earned a good number. The lightly raced Tapit colt may want farther than this mile and a sixteenth, but seems to have a touch of class. This is an important race with two objectives. The first is to gain experience rallying from behind; the second is to prove he is good enough to start in the Santa Anita Derby. BATTLE OF MIDWAY is better than his disappointing third last out in a G2 sprint. His training was messed up by weather, and he did not have a good trip. He was shuffled slightly on the backstretch and unable to muster a rally. Bred to run long, he has trained well since that start, and has always been one of the stable’s top 3yo colt prospects. Expected him to show speed. SHARP SAMURAI made his second start as a first-time gelding, and crushed maiden75s by nine+ lengths. Big win, he will be in the hunt early. SOGLIO is a deep-closing turf horse giving the main track a shot; IRISH FREEDOM is a comeback colt from the same stable as the top choice. Tough outside post for his comeback, first-time long and first vs. winners.

EIGHTH RACE

MY AUNT TILLIE made the “horses to watch” list after a better-than-looked fifth-place comeback. She should move forward second start back while stretching to two turns. Her work pattern had gaps going into her comeback, she ran like she needed it. Since then, working once a week, she posted three solid works and goes long second start back. Tab for an improved effort with a prep under her belt. MOONLESS SKY makes her California debut in this state-bred maiden race after finishing in the money all four starts in Florida. Her rivals at Gulfstream and the track formerly known as Calder were modest, but so are these locals. Ninestart maiden STARLITE STYLE, runner-up three straight, finished in front of the top choice last out in a good comeback. She probably will be favored but has had many chances already.