Expect Wild Shot to turn the tables

The Big Cap card Saturday at Santa Anita is truly big, with the $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap heading a program that includes two other Grade 1 events – the Frank E. Kilroe Mile and the Triple Bend, each worth $400,000 – plus a strong renewal of the Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe Stakes, the local steppingstone to the Santa Anita Derby.

Saturday is also the biggest day of the year at Tampa Bay Downs, where the Grade 2, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby tops a card that includes four other stakes, two of them graded.

Tampa Bay Derby

Tapwrit inherits the role of favorite in the absence of McCraken, who is working his way back from a minor ankle issue, off a second-place finish over the track to that rival in last month’s Sam F. Davis Stakes. But while no one should be surprised if Tapwrit wins, I’m playing against him.

It’s not so much that I want to see validation of the winning Davis Beyer Speed Figure because Tapwrit was one of several out of that race who earned a career-best figure (he received a 93). It’s more about the way Tapwrit actually ran. He had a very easy trip, saving ground, moving out in the stretch, and then sort of sucking along to get second over two opponents who did more of the dirty work than he did.

Beasley got a long look here off a sharp second last time in an allowance route at Gulfstream to Battalion Runner, who is pointing to the Florida Derby for Tapwrit’s trainer, Todd Pletcher. But my main reservation with Beasley is that he might get caught up in an early pace battle with others.

I’m going with Wild Shot, who finished fourth in the Davis behind Tapwrit, but after a much tougher trip. Wild Shot was caught four wide on the first turn and four to five wide on the far turn and may have also moved too soon on the far turn. In any case, Wild Shot had the lead in midstretch before weakening in what was his first start in 2 1/2 months.

Wild Shot’s second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes two starts back was a fine effort. He pressed a strong pace set by Uncontested, who came back to romp in the Smarty Jones Stakes, and after putting that opponent away, he was caught only late by McCraken and beaten just a little more than a length.

Honeybee Stakes

Elate was a surprise loser at 1-5 in the Suncoast Stakes most recently, and I’m leaning against a rebound in this feature at Oaklawn. I’m not certain her big debut score two starts back at Aqueduct, the performance that made her such a prohibitive favorite last time, was as fast as others think it was.

Southern California shipper It Tiz Well will take a lot of beating. She bracketed strong victories around a second to the brilliant Unique Bella in the Santa Ynez two starts back and should love the stretch-out to two turns. But as much as I respect It Tiz Well, I’m taking Tapa Tapa Tapa, the upset winner of the Suncoast, to score right back.

Tapa Tapa Tapa was making her first start in four months in the Suncoast and yet managed to score decisively despite setting a pace that was significantly faster than males set in the Sam F. Davis two races later. Moreover, that was Tapa Tapa Tapa’s first start on dirt and first with blinkers on, so she might well have found her calling.

Frank E. Kilroe Mile

I’ve been a big fan of the classy Dortmund for a long time, but I will be looking to beat him when he tries turf for the first time in this spot. Dortmund is well known for being a big, heavy horse, and horses of that type are often unsuitable candidates for a switch to turf as they tend to sink into the footing rather than skip over it.

Bolo, another horse I’ve been a fan of for a long time, was very good in winning the Arcadia last month off a seven-month absence, and I’m looking for him to win right back. Bolo was rank early in the Arcadia when hard held off an unremarkable early pace, yet he still surged late to get up in time. I expect Bolo to be more settled early second time back, which should only enhance his late punch.