ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, ACKERET

FIRST RACE

One more try for MONTE MAN, who endured a tough trip on a four-wide chase before getting out-finished by a perfect trip winner two starts back, then returned to stumble at the start and run up into traffic off the claim; has races that can contend with likely favorite TRADFEST. TRADFEST went well when second-best on the drop at Saratoga, and he returned from a long layoff to post an easy front-running win last month with the top last out figure in this field; has some speed to his inside to deal with this time. CATS LANDING just 1-for-25 on the way in, but he has run the fastest races of his career lately, and his new trainer is excellent off the claim.

SECOND RACE

ACKERET was forced to chase a sharp frontrunning winner over an inside, speed-favoring track and settled for second-best on a solid performance two starts back, and, while his figure declined as a beaten favorite last time, he cut a solid pace while sticking to a dead rail all the way in that spot, and he only gave it up late; tough if he shows up with one of his good ones for trainer who is very good off the claim. BUSTIN THE BANK got the right turn back last time, but he may have been compromised by trying to rally along the inside in the stretch, while the eventual winner closed out in the clear; better sprinting and he has more speed than he was able to show last time. ON TAP was flat on the turn back for Rudy last time, but that was a much tougher field of horses; has some races on the go back to make himself tough as he cuts in half.

THIRD RACE

FRATELLO DEL NORD has been holding form without finding the winner’s circle since returning to this circuit from successful run at Finger Lakes last year, and he ran better than it may appear last time after missing the break and trying to come around widest from last in a race dominated up front; good spot for him to break and use his speed. SKY CHAPARRAL was on an improving pattern for his prior connections, and he came through with another solid effort off the Jacobson claim when pairing up his career top figure; got away last and raced on gamely while down on the inside before going away for a short break last time. H MAN was forced to take up the chase along then inside last time with no other speed going with Saratoga Giro, and he tried gamely all the way before settling for second-best; has plenty of races that make him a contender and he has been in good form lately. RANSOM NOTE holds the upside for the best o0f trainers, and he has run well in both career starts, but he did get off easy on the lead last time, and he is likely to have to improve again to beat this field.

FOURTH RACE

BLESSED HALO tried gamely after a slow start on debut, and he improved markedly in his second start when giving game chase from the outside after the talented Three Rules; tough here if ready to improve upon that 76 Beyer earned as a summer 2yo. HAVE ANOTHER fell a bit flat in a strong race for the level last time, but he had run very well in his main track starts prior to that one, including dirt debut where he was almost eliminated by a fallen horse on the turn before rallying late. SON OF MINE and WANZTBWICKED both making belated debuts for top trainers after bringing $200k + as 2yos in training last spring; the former worked a sharp-looking 9.4, while the latter went greenly in his 10.1 breeze.

FIFTH RACE

TUG OF WAR stretching back out after coming with a good finish for 3rd in the slop last month, and he was also racing on well late when along for 2nd three starts back; five-time route winner comfortable with this distance, and he should have some pace to run at, assuming this field stays intact. POINT HOPE has a tough outside post to overcome, but he will also appreciate any pace that develops in front of him; don’t love his form since claimed away from Rudy at the end of last year, especially that race two back where he has a contested pace to run at, but failed to make an

impact. ONE SIDED’s recent form leaves plenty to be desired, so this kind of class drop may not be a positive sign, but he has plenty of races in his past that would make him tough here, and his trainer has been on a good run lately; can be forward without needing the lead to be at his best.

SIXTH RACE

WONDERMEISTER and BROKEN ENGAGEMENT both interesting first time starters in a field where the experienced runners have so far failed to inspire. WONDERMEISTER a half to the good turf horse Baffle Me, but his dam is a sister to the fast dirt sprinter Forest Music, and his trainer has a nice touch with first time starters. BROKEN ENGAGEMENT from a dam who has dropped four prior winner, including five-time sprint winner Notmyfirsttime, who won four in row on this circuit a few years ago, and topped out in the mid-90’s on Beyer; Rudy highly underrated with first time starters. SICILIA MIKE back to NY and back to sprinting after unsuccessful run stretching out recently; sprint form from early on is fine, though he was settling for second-best in those races without excuses. INCORPORATE missed some time after a summer debut as a 2yo, and didn’t think his return was a terrible effort when off to a poor start and then kept wide behind a sharp front-running winner.

SEVENTH RACE

FULL OF MINE stretches back out after even return sprinting over a wet track last month; route form has come vs. much better horses, and he has held his own for the most part, while earing figures that fit well in this field; taking him in race where I don’t really want anyone else. WINE NOT worked a clean trip on the outside following eventual winner James Lane around the track, and raced on well for second-best without ever threatening that horse last time, still prefer him as a one-turn horse, but this is the right spot for him. HERE COMES TOMMY just went evenly last time after running a couple of solid races upon his return to the inner, including a good run while against the track profile two starts back; hard to take on top considering his overall record, but he could surprise a field like this if able to rebound.

EIGHTH RACE

SASSICAIA started to find himself once turned back to sprint by Rudy, and he came up with a couple of strong efforts over this track before heading to the sidelines early last year; return to the races was an encouraging effort in a race where CHIEF LION was loose on the lead, and things may much be different in Tom Fool with plenty of pace signed on. SPARTIATIS managed to keep closer to the pace than is his usual style. and came up with a new top figure of 99 in 7yo debut when last seen; hasn’t managed to class up in his prior attempts at this level, but he enters in good form ,and he is another who can take advantage if the pace gets heated out in front. ALL STAR RED sat a nice trip and took his shot at a dead-game GREEN GRATTO before settling for second-best in the Toboggan, which was a nice follow up to his game run in the Gravesend while against the track; is what he is, but he runs every time and can get the jump of the closers.

NINTH RACE

MISSION AWARENESS debuting for trainer who has struggled lately, but Dutrow has been solid with first time starters sprinting on dirt in NY over time (20% winners over the past five years with a positive ROI, and 27% with NY-breds in that sample); half to six winners from this dam gets aggressive rider in the right kind of field, assuming he has some speed. TAP CITY was off slowly and raced greenly without getting involved in debut here last month; drops a bit for trainer who is lights out with second time starting maidens (past two years, maidens, second start, dirt sprints: 20-for-45, 44%, $3.66 ROI). CESPEDES settled for 4th as the favorite when dropped to this level last time, but he can do better if going back to using his speed this time.