ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, STANFORD

FIRST RACE

TO THE STARS was unable to catch up with FINANCIAL FREEDOM two back but that was a race that was light on pace, and he returned to score in his latest when able to run down the pacesetter; should appreciate the added distance, especially if I CAT pushes FINANCIAL FREEDOM early on. MY PRINCE is another who stands to benefit from a contested pace; clearly 2nd behind the favorite in his latest. FINANCIAL FREEDOM has speed and the rail but he could have trouble lasting if pressured from the start at this slightly extended distance.

SECOND RACE

UNSEEN ANGELS was behind two of these same runners on New Year’s Day but she was stuck down inside on a day when the rail may not have been the best part of the track; chance to spring the upset with a stalking trip just off the speeds. ROYAL JEWELY is the one to beat on the class drop and given her recent Beyers; she certainly seems to want more ground but may be best here nonetheless, especially if she gets a favorable pace scenario. SPANISH CONCERT got clear early and wired the field in the Minaret in her latest, a solid effort; she could face pace pressure here, however, and she has to negotiate another sixteenth of a mile.

THIRD RACE

MR DEWEY has a couple of solid works showing for his debut, breezes that are good enough to make him a threat right out of the box; pedigree offers few clues, as he’s the first starter out of an unraced dam, but he should be expected to come out running. EXCLUSIVE PACKAGE ran a decent race for the show in his first start off the layoff, and the Beyer he posted in that sprint last time out gives him strong credibility here. BETTING ON RED is kin to four runners, all winners, including multiple stakes winner Dressed in Hermes.

FOURTH RACE

COTTLE AND CUDDLE was sharp in that debut win, tracking the pace before making a bid in hand and scoring easily over the favorite, next-out winner Gray Ransom; ability to sit off the pace and make one run makes him appealing in this sprint, which seems to feature a fair amount of early speed. THE COOKIE MAN has enjoyed a strong meet, winning three races and posted above-par Beyers in all of those victories; obvious fear off that last figure, though he needs to avoid getting caught up in a race-long duel. EGYPTIAN HERO was a game winner against maidens in his first start back; will be prominent from the start.

FIFTH RACE

MARQUETEER was off the board in his latest but he was moving deceptively well in the late stages, and he was 2nd in a sprint that came up much faster than par for the class and distance two back; may be able to make the last run with a clean trip from the rail. D. SHIFFLETT was a close-up third in his most recent after rallying late; tactical speed should mean he’s closer to the pace today. SEVENTYSEVENWILOW was a beaten favorite in that same race but he was also moving well in deep stretch.

SIXTH RACE

CLOSING BELL ships back from Australia, and while he didn’t have a lot of success there he figures

tough back in the U. S., where he posted some solid Beyers against stiff competition last year; clearly dangerous at this reduced level despite the layoff. GOLD SHIELD has been away since October but he fits well based on his best figures; obviously a threat in the lane with a clean trip. AQUAPHOBIA sports bullet works for his first start since the summer, and he hails from a high-percentage barn; dangerous if he’s able to continue to improve with each start in terms of Beyers.

SEVENTH RACE

TIZ A SLAM has been training very well toward his first start off the layoff, and the Beyers he posted prior to the layoff fit very well in this Columbia Stakes; lone loss came in the Summer Stakes, a Canadian Grade 2, where he ran into some traffic trouble. SONIC BOOM finished 4th in the Kitten’s Joy at Gulfstream last time but he was running well late after being held up behind horses in the lane; turf figures very steady. MUGGSAMATIC might be the right value play, as that last race — while not yielding a big figure — was visually impressive.

EIGHTH RACE

STANFORD is a little obvious but he’s going to be a handful in this Challenger Stakes, as he not only has some of the best Beyers in the field but he may also hold a pace advantage as the main speed drawn inside; figures very tough to reel in if he’s able to get clear easily enough, as expected. BLOFELD has enough speed to stay close in the opening stages and that could be an edge if the pace is controlled, as expected; hasn’t been close of late but his last three tries were races which featured much different race flows. ADIRONDACK KING was game to save the place in his latest; tactical speed should mean he’s well positioned off the speed.

NINTH RACE

FIFTY FIVE may have been moving best of all in the lane in the Sweetest Chant despite finishing third, as she may have simply been left with too much to do thanks to a slow pace up front; should get a much better set-up in the Florida Oaks, and she can run them all down late if able to work out a clean trip. DADDYS LIL DARLING has more than held her own in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races on the dirt, and her closing style fits the expected race flow today; dam was a stakes winner on turf and she produced two stakes winners on Grass, including Mongolian Saturday, winer of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. COMPELLED comes out of the same race as the top pick, running 2nd in the Sweetest Chant with the aid of a perfect stalking trip; positional speed should mean she’s again well spotted in the opening stages.

TENTH RACE

EVIDENTLY was no threat to ISABELLA SINGS in the Endeavour last time out but she had little chance to catch that rival, who was loose on the lead as the lone speed going 1 1/16 miles; she did make a nice run on the turn to get into position to make a run on the turn and she continued well for the show despite not being pushed hard when it was clear she would be no better or worse than third. ISABELLA SINGS is clearly the one to catch and beat, coming off a sharp win in the Endeavour; figures to get clear once again, though she will have to maintain that lead for another sixteenth of a mile in this Hillsborough. MY IMPRESSION makes her seasonal bow for trainer Shug McGaughey, who does well with horses coming back off a break such as this; ability to stay close could mean she gets first run at the favorite.

ELEVENTH RACE

TAPWRIT looked good closing for the place in the Sam F. Davis when last seen, rallying strongly once clear and then galloping out nicely past the wire; he’ll be looking to come from off the pace once again but there seems to be ample pace in this Tampa Bay Derby field to set him up, and a quick, contested pace should set him up perfectly to improve upon that 93 Beyer he posted in the Sam F. Davis. SONIC MULE has been against the race flow in each of his last three races, pushing or setting the pace in race which set up well for closers; he figures to be pressed here as well but he does loom the one to catch and he has license to steal it if Velazquez can keep him from getting caught up in a racelong pace battle. STATE OF HONOR has shown the versatility to lead or rate, and the two Beyers he posted in his two starts since returning from the layoff give him strong credibility; nice works since that last run.

TWELFTH RACE

INCLUDE THE BEST is the first starter out of an unraced dam but she does have works that suggest she has some ability; expecting her to emerge running. RIGHT ON BY clearly fits off that debut run, where she was third thanks to a late run; adds Lasix today. BOUDICEA’S REVENGE, kin to $2.2 million earner Prayer for Relief and four other winners, adds blinkers after a good effort for the place in his first start back after a short rest.