Tampa Bay Pick 4 Analysis

Anchored by a single in the last race at Tampa Bay Downs Saturday, a debuting 3-year-old filly in a maiden special weight contest, here is my strategy for playing the late Pick 4 there, a sequence that also includes three graded stakes, including the Tampa Bay Derby.

Race 9, The Florida Oaks

1 1/16-mile turf race for 3-year-old fillies, this race attracted a top field with a mixture of inform Florida competitors, as well as a couple of graded-stakes winning comebackers kicking off their 2017 campaigns. Little separates the leading contenders, leading me to go four deep with Fifty Five (6), Compelled (9), La Coronel (5) and Dynatail (3). Fifty Five and Compelled come off fine efforts in the Feb. 4 Sweetest Chant at Gulfstream in which they were third and second, respectively; La Coronel is the established class on the grass, though unraced since a wide sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies; and Dynatail is razor sharp, having won three in a row, including a stake at OBS in her last start.

Race 10, The Hillsborough

I’ve always thought highly of Isabella Sings (6), whose blazing speed and ability to sustain it makes her difficult to catch. She is a must use. Still, this is a talented group – so I will also use a couple others in Dickinson (3) and Elysea’s World (5), the one-two finishers from last month’s Suwannee River at Gulfstream Park.

Race 11, The Tampa Bay Derby

Tapwrit (5) impressed with his long sustained rally to be second in the Sam. F. Davis, and following an effortless breeze last week at Palm Meadows, is my selection to win the Tampa Bay Derby. But he rates just narrowly on top over Beasley (6), who has twice been second in allowances at Gulfstream this winter against talented colts. They are the two I like best, but I will toss one more in the Pick 4 in No Dozing (4), who is a candidate to improve in his second start of 2017 after a promising 2-year-old year.

Race 12, Maiden Special Weight

Last up is a straight maiden race at six furlongs for 3year-old fillies in which I think it’s best to take a stand and single first-time starter Include the Best (7) in what seems a soft field. She has been working quickly for trainer Tom Proctor, with three of her last five breezes ranking as either the fastest or second fastest at the distance on those mornings.