ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, SIRCAT SALLY

FIRST RACE

Santa Anita Handicap day; first post is 12 noon. Front-runner ST. RENO and late-runner HOOK ‘EM KURT lock up this starter allowance. ST. RENO, runner-up twice recently at this level, faces less speed than his last two starts. He can clear, and be long gone at low odds. HOOK ‘EM KURT dropped to maiden-40 last out, and won rallying from far back while earning a figure that matches recent par for this level. Furthermore, his closing style has been surprisingly effective at five and one-half furlongs. Ten of the last 21 races at this distance on “fast” were won from the back half of the field. CLASSIC RULER, 3yo vs. older, with an apprentice rider, carries 16 pounds less than the top pair. He has speed, should be positioned second, and probably would be first to pounce on the favorite.

SECOND RACE

This turf sprint for Cal-bred maidens is the most baffling race on the card. DR. TROUTMAN returns to the surface (grass) of his career-best effort, he shortens from a route, and could win it by making the last run. Also-eligible INSUBORDINATION missed by a neck in his only start. That was racing one mile, more than a year ago. He also will be rolling late. BURNIE’S ON BOARD ran well sprinting on this downhill course in his career debut, then backed up each subsequent start around two turns. Off more than six months, seemingly training well, he is a logical contender shortening back to a sprint. Seems this might be his preferred distance. PATIENCE OFA SAINT, well-bet both starts, off slow both starts, dead last both starts, switches to turf. His pedigree is fine for the footing change; perhaps all he needs is a clean break.

THIRD RACE

AIN’T MISBEHAVIN won for the sixth time on this racetrack last out, a decisive last-to-first win in a $16k claiming starter. These N1X/optional $40k claiming foes are not much tougher; there is sufficient speed to flatter his closing rally. ‘MISBEHAVIN is the first “live” starter Saturday at a mile and a quarter for trainer Vladimir Cerin and jockey Kent Desormeaux. The other, in race 10, will offer more attractive odds. FREDDIES DREAM crushed Cal-bred N1X/optional $20k claiming foes last out, and was claimed by Jack Carava. Up in class to face open company, he will rally from the middle of the pack. INFOBEDAD is speed, returning to dirt. He will take them as far as he can, although he must deal with other front-runners/pressers.

FOURTH RACE

The runner-up debut by PARADISE WOODS was better than it appears, and sets up the second-start filly as one of the more probable winners on the card. Her training was messed up due to weather, she was hounded through a fast pace, got swallowed late but then galloped out in front. It was a promising debut by the Union Rags filly, a sibling to stakes winner Forest Chatter. PARADISE WOODS has not missed a beat in works since, and by all rights should win her second start unless one of the first-time starters is special. FAYPIEN makes her career debut with a series of good works (view free of charge at XBTV.com). FLAYPIEN posted a Feb. 22 gate work in company with the good maiden Diva La Mousse; Feb 16 she worked a half-mile in company with highly regarded Reach the World, scheduled to run Thursday in a N1X. FLAYPIEN, by Ghostzapper, should come out firing. MOON KITTY ran super with a tough trip in her debut, then regressed second time out although her speed figure and finish position improved. Freshened two months, expect her to be set for her best. SOUTHERN MISCHIEF showed speed from the gate in her 59.60-second work March 3. She might be ranked too low by this handicapper.

FIFTH RACE

G1 winner GORMLEY and undefeated G1 winner MASTERY are tough to separate in this interesting

Santa Anita Derby prep. GORMLEY won his first start of the season in game fashion, despite getting hot in the post parade. He pressed a fast pace and out-finished highly regarded American Anthem by a head. GORMLEY is drawn outside his main rival. That is MASTERY, who won all three starts as a 2yo including the Los Alamitos Futurity over a soft bunch: the runner-up is still a maiden, the thirdplace finisher finished last his next start, the other two have not started since. This is the first true class test for MASTERY, billed as the “goods” before he ever started. He delivered on his promise at 2, and will be tested again at 3. ILIAD ran fast winning the G2 San Vicente, a sprint; this is his first route. The third-place finisher from the San Vicente was Battle of Midway, scheduled to start as a contender Thursday in a N1X route.

SIXTH RACE

The pick six starts here. CEEME RUN WILD stretches out with two sharp turf sprints under her belt, a maiden win followed by an improved third at this N1X level. No reason she cannot ration her speed and win this mile turf race with a front-running or pacepressing trip. SPECIAL GAL won a low-rated maiden race on dirt, but her turf form last year suggests that grass is her preferred footing. AVA FORTY SEVEN has not started since last May, when she romped by nine in a maiden turf race at Lone Star. She was purchased privately afterward, and makes her California debut for a top stable. SHEHASTHERITESTUFF will roll late.

SEVENTH RACE

Boston sports fans will appreciate the name BIRD ORR BRADY, a gelding by top debut sire Kantharos (21 percent first-out winners). Fast works from the gate, all systems go for the Doug O’Neill trainee presumably named after New England sports legends Larry Bird (Boston Celtics), Bobby Orr (Boston Bruins) and Tom Brady (New England Patriots). LOOKIE LOO is a first-time starter trained by Bob Baffert, whose rookies typically are out ready to fire. SABURO is a well-regarded Medaglia d’Oro first-timer trained by newly licensed trainer Mick Ruis, who owns the colt. Reports are that he is a good one. FACE OF VICTORY is the only entrant with racing experience, adding blinkers after an okay comeback. First-time starter AMERICAN PASTIME reportedly has speed.

EIGHTH RACE

MASOCHISTIC is the only front-runner in this G1 sprint, first start since finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He runs well fresh, and is 3-for-3 at this specialty distance of seven furlongs. His most recent workout is open to interpretation; he was scheduled to work seven furlongs, but was pretty much eased up after five furlongs. Nonetheless, the certain favorite should be tough to catch as lone speed. If the pace goes the other way, then G2-winning closer KOBE’S BACK could be along in time. A notorious slow starter, he has aimed to this race for weeks, runs well fresh and will fly late. CONQUEST COBRA has an upset chance, shortening to a sprint after dueling and fading late in a route won by a stablemate. ‘COBRA could be sitting second behind the top choice, and would get first run if that one falters. SILENT BIRD finished in front of ‘COBRA twice, and might simply be a better horse. But he needed time after his most recent start, and may or may not be all the way cranked. He has won five straight.

NINTH RACE

An evenly matched cast of turf milers in this G1; CONQUEST ENFORCER had an alibi for finishing third as the favorite in a G2 last out, after a squandering a good trip. He loomed a threat into the lane, seemingly had the pacesetter measured, then lost his punch. It turns out he had a quarter crack that was bothering him. The foot problem has been treated; he trained well and has a versatile running style that should lead to another good trip. BOLO won the race in which the top choice nd finished third; BOLO did not have a great trip, either. Hard-held early, pulling his rider, buried inside into the lane, he switched out and blasted home for a super comeback win. He likes this turf course, four wins and a second from five starts. FLAMBOYANT looms the knockout, possible offering highest odds in the field. One mile might be too short, but he packs a mighty late kick. If frontrunners WHAT A VIEW and DORTMUND hook up, this race could unfold in favor of FLAMBOYANT’s closing rally. RING WEEKEND has run races that figure.

TENTH RACE

MIDNIGHT STORM has the pace advantage as potential lone speed in the Santa Anita Handicap; East Coast shipper SHAMAN GHOST is a worthy rival in peak form. Both veterans seek the first G1 mile-anda-quarter win of their careers, the absence of pace gives MIDNIGHT STORM the edge. He has looked super in morning works; this race was always the target since his sloppy-track G2 win in January. With a clean start from the rail, he could be gone. That is, if he can stay a mile and a quarter. SHAMAN GHOST earned a huge figure (112 Beyer) finishing second to Arrogate at Gulfstream Park; ‘GHOST reportedly bounced out of the race in top shape. He arrived in California on Tuesday, has had sufficient time to settle, and will be rolling from off the pace. He is a G1 winner at a mile and one-eighth, won the Queen’s Plate at a mile and a quarter, and a G2 at a mile and a half. Distance is not an issue. FOLLOW ME CREV is the knockout, up in class after a decisive allowance comeback victory in which he won with plenty left in the tank. He faces a huge class test, but might be up to the challenge. Two of the last five Big ‘Caps were won by horses up from the allowance ranks (Melatonin, 2016; Game on Dude, 2011). IMPERATIVE fits on numbers.

ELEVENTH RACE

The undefeated front-runner SIRCAT SALLY ends the program as the most probable winner on the card. She is 3-for-3, and faster than her 3yo filly rivals. The Cal-bred stakes she won last out was validated by next-out wins from the third- and seventh-place finishers. MISS SUGARS was only prepping when runner-up in a turf sprint; BEAU RECALL scored an impressive U.S. debut win vs. N1X foes. She might be this good. HOW ABOUT ZERO wheels back in nine days. She had a tough trip two back finishing second to the top choice, but no visible excuses last week. 285 West Huntington Drive Arcadia, CA 91066 (626) 574-7223 Main track: One mile, oval. Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 feet. Turf course: About Seven Furlongs

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 15.43 % ■ Two-horse exotic wagering: 22.68% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta, Super Hi 5, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6: 23.68% ■ Pick 5: 14% ■ Daily Double: 20%

NOTE: A horse which wins a non-winners of $3,000 other than maiden or claiming, or two races, for Calbreds, shall remain eligible for that comparable open allowance race, provided that horse did not win a race other than claiming following that Cal-Bred win. Once a horse has won the two first condition allowance races (Cal-Bred and open), then the Cal Bred win will be disregarded in future allowance races for eligibility purposes only. designates graduate of Keeneland Sale