ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, WAINSCOTT

FIRST RACE

STICK, based on his fading HOU run last time, appears to need the lead for his best. There are other pace elements here, but if he proves the speed of the speed (and speed still is doing well in the first race on FG cards), and the chasers are stopping right along with him, that means there are fewer stalkers and closers to hold clear. The trainer is at about 50% wins for the Delta meet and hit at a 30% rate generally in 2016. ROBERT E. LEE makes some sense on various levels here as a win candidate - and then one’s eyes keep wandering back to his 1-22 career win mark. SENSATIONAL RIDE’s maiden win two back came around two turns, but he could one-pace himself into a decent placing returning to the proper surface and dropping back down in class. MAJESTIC HEIR probably is an odds-on favorite. He ran very fast for the $12.5K maiden-claiming class winning last out, and impressed his connections so much that, after a break of more than six weeks, they drop him $5K in claiming price.

SECOND RACE

RUN WITH CLASS is an La-bred, which means he runs for an $18,000 purse in this $5K N3L claimer, and that the drop from $10K claiming might be more positive than negative. Worked twice since a good rallying second of 10 last out at DED going a two-turn 6.5 furlongs. His two wins both came at this mile trip. VOKAZAK won a match race during the EHV-1 period of the meet last out, but he looks competitive on a wider scale than just the recent win. Don’t bother trying to make much sense of the barn’s workout patterns. JUBAL will take betting and has contending recent form, but he’s a horse in general decline right now. Thought OUT OF THE TRAPPE would run much better last time.

THIRD RACE

ZYXYZ has two dirt runs in her eight-start career — a decent sprint race for 5X this price last fall at Churchill, and a sloppy mile for 4X this claiming price earlier in FG meet. She has more pace than she showed last time on turf. Should appreciate the class drop. KOOL AID GIRL is the other “logi- cal” horse in the field, and doubt the odds spread between the top two is as wide as forecast in the morning-line. KAG’s maiden win came for $10K at Delta, which makes her less than solid here even though she has recently been racing competitive for higher claiming tags than this. FRANKIE’S TOUCH showed nothing last time, but rebounded from a similar dud last summer to get right back on form - form that’s good enough for a share in this group.

FOURTH RACE

Main-track-only HARLAN PUNCH is, oddly, one of two Amoss-trained MTO’s. Dunk A Din, the other, ran his big race in the slop, and though there is a chance of turf being washed away on this card, the forecast calls for clear skies on the day, and the dirt probably will be fast. As for Harlan Punch, he looked a decent prospect coming out of the 2015 Delta Jackpot but failed to improve much through his 3yo season. He’s a tweener, neither true router nor sprinter, which is why the short-stretch mile could be a good fit. WICKED WINK has lost all nine of his starts since being imported from Europe, so no wonder connections take him out of the allowance ranks and try a $30K conditioned claimer. Would think any of his last four starts would make him a major player. JAX HERITAGE woke up last time in his second race after a year-plus layoff, but his pre-break form suggests his ceiling isn’t especially high even if he is set to improve again.

FIFTH RACE

ANOTHER PINOT has raced only twice since April and has a checkered work pattern, but she has faced stronger competition than this through-

out her career, and lands in a spot that’s soft for the class level. A short-stretch dirt mile at Fair Grounds suits her well enough. GIANT CRUISER took a step back in a tougher race last out at Delta, but a return to the form she showed there two races ago would make her competitive. She faced open company in her only previous Fair Grounds start. Typically one would imagine the jump from $5K conditioned claiming to $12.5K would be difficult, but CASTLE ZIP brings good form to a race with a lot of questionable entrants. BIG KICK used to be a grass horse. Now he seems to be a dirt horse. Entered main-track only and should win an off-turf race if he runs back to his Dec. 11 performance. A HE’S AN O’PRADO - win machine. Six in a row, and is the very rare horse to start as low as a $5K “B” race and win all the way up to starter-allowance conditions. He did just that last time running down a loose leader who fit the spot. Why can’t he continue on in same kind of form? Drawn wide, but little pace entered, and he should be able to get over and into a decent spot. Similarly, MR LEXIS figures on or near a very moderate tempo. Broke through with lesser last out at HOU, but has run well on FG turf before and can stick with these. CALL ME WEST was tempting but will be against the pace.

SEVENTH RACE

First-Lasix BIG JOE ran well enough three back at DED that one could imagine him winning this. Four La-bred MSW tries before this drop to $10K. Hasn’t been farther than 7.5f but is definitely bred to run on. Three-times-started STACK HOUSE has gone MSW, $20K, & $10K, and seemed to find his level last time on drop to bottom. Passed a bunch of horses sprinting. Not getting a lot of pedigree guidance for stretch to a mile. DEWEY’S SUNSHINE has had plenty - PLENTY - of chances in similar spots. Couldn’t take a short price on 14-race maiden.

EIGHTH RACE

SHEA’S LIL SHUG caught very wide both turns after breaking from post 11 last time, but still ran a solid race, the problem being she hooked a very well meant Inveniam Viam (was to run in Saturday La-bred turf stakes). Claimed for $20K and in for $12.5K, but look at the $40K purse, and consider the barn is about to move north and out of La-bred company, and she appears very well meant on the drop. ZUZOR didn’t do as well two back in mud but turned in fine performances last out and three back on turf. As a pressing / stalking type she could be in for a wide run around the first turn. Worse still, she is facing a horse, the top pick, who just ran a competitive race one class level above this one. That’s the rub with optional claiming. FLASHY SHOES did not have a fair shot in either of her last two starts, but she might not quite be up to winning.

NINTH RACE

WAINSCOTT is by Scat Daddy, so turf should be an option, right? Wrong. Wanted no part of lawn last time. Go two races back and he gave the very talented Redesdale, who now is 3-3 and stakesbound, a pretty serious tussle. Return to that form probably lands him a win - but not at the 7/2 morning-line odds. He’ll probably be shorter, and Newfound Gold likely longer. FORGE AHEAD FRANKI either had something go amiss or bounced badly last time after a good closing second at this level last time. Freshened up, working steadily, has pace to chase. POCKETBALL wasn’t bad on turf last time but was better on dirt two back. Horse he beat, My Pal Torres, returned to run well Thursday.

TENTH RACE

ROYALTINI was entered for turf in lone start but got rained onto a sloppy main track. No problem just drawing a line through that race. Suspect she proves much more adept on grass - at a price. A FASHION AFFAIR stumbled early and was wide middle making second start, her turf debut, in one of the tougher grass maidens of the meet. Encouraging recent work. Figures fair price. MSW dropper DONA ELBA ran her two best races going long, and even with class relief, wonder if she can get up at 5.5 furlongs.