ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, TOP ROCKET

FIRST RACE

FOUR TIMES LUCKY battles APARRI once again as they have swapped wins the last two starts. Race flow could not be any better for our top two as they both want to pass runners in a race full of speed. Edge to ‘Lucky as she draws outside and APARRI is stuck on the rail. Curious as to who goes favored. LET THE GIRL GO figures to hold the rail as she is inside speed. Gate to wire only two back. One of the speed horses is going to hang on to a piece of the pie.

SECOND RACE

A LITTLE LUCKIER likes routing and a real dirt surface (7-3-2-0). Class dip can’t hurt nor back class. After two local turf starts, she should be acclimated to new surroundings. Race flow is only average so no help there. TEAPARTYSUCCESS ran well two back but couldn’t put good races together but that is often the case for horses at this level. She gets to save all the early ground. No more Vergara but we don’t see him named to anyone else. SUNDAY DAWN is a consistent sort that has a nice work March 8th (8 of 33). She could take them all the way on the stretch-out.

THIRD RACE

TYLER’S TEK is by a 0 for 1 debut sire and a new turf sire. His dam went 16-5-1-1 for 145K (10-40-0 on the grass for 133K, won debut). Of 6 sibs to race, 5 won. Two of six won on the grass with 1 hitting the board. Tough to like a first time starter going two turns on the turf but we can’t resist grass breeding here. GIRONDIN is knocking on the door with recent near misses. Form cycle hints at better and he even has some speed. The one to beat for sure. TRUST SANTIAGO keeps leading rider in Ramgeet. This guy showed some speed last out and draws inside main pace foe so a front end try is more likely than not. JUST MISUNDERSTOOD is by a 15% debut turf sire. His dam went 16-8-1-0 on the grass for 259K (won turf debut). This is dam’s first foal.

FOURTH RACE

LORD CALEZAAR didn’t do much off the layoff but it was a long break. Plus, 5 furlongs was short and we’re betting he needed that race anyway. An elongated sprint is a better fit while distance tab is 11-1-1-3. Works before return try were fast and Flores stays put. CHARLIE’S DEERE did run OK versus Remington foes three back (48 Beyer). Let’s say he needed recent local tries to get comfortable to the desert. Odds will be better today. MATTY O’KEEFE gets an extra half furlong to work with today, draws fine, and goes second off the long layoff. A good price for sure.

FIFTH RACE

We thought that last race for HARD NINE was a little better as this guy made a nice middle move at 12-1 before tiring some late. He goes third off the layoff today and even has some tactical speed to sit behind what might be a decent pace. I B TANNER goes second time this dirt and horse often improve the second time they do anything. Class drop makes perfect sense. KISS SIN GOODBYE got a 72 Beyer when last seen on this dirt only three back. Class drop is big and this closer gets to save some early ground. The one to beat.

SIXTH RACE

TOP ROCKET is bred to like the grass with a 307 Tomlinson turf rating. Lone grass try, two back, was an even effort. He was washed off the grass previously but still ran a Beyer top. We think this guy is coming around and might like the green all at a nice price to entice. SO BE IT is by a 0 for 2 debut sire and a new turf sire. His dam went 2-0-0-0 (one grass try). Lone sib is 1-0-0-0 and never tried the green. Work tab is fine and we trust this barn with their turf starters. SAGACIOUS is by a 12% debut sire and a 10% debut turf sire. His dam went 7-2-1-0 for 11K (no turf). Two of four sibs won and both beat winners. Two sibs tried the grass and neither won but one did hit the board. This horse actually has the best grass breeding in the grass according to Tomlinson rating of 341. MONUMENTAL SEVEN is by a 9% debut turf sire. His dam went 8-2-3-3 for 122K on the green. This is her

first grass foal. IDA GOODEST is by a 6% debut turf sire. His dam went 3-0-0-0 on the green. Lone grass sib is 3-0-0-1 for 4K. I’M ROCKING THIS LIFE is by a new turf sire (0 for 0). His dam went 6-0-1-1 on the green for 24K. Lone grass sib missed the board in two starts. LAST CALL LOBO is by a 0 for 6 debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green Of 3 sibs to try the grass, zero won but one did hit the board.

SEVENTH RACE

GUIA won ridden out off the short rest and there is more where that came from. This mare just prefers a real dirt surface. Cut back isn’t our favorite but we do like this post for the distance. KAIULANI won at this distance only two back. She has tactical speed for a great trip. Current form is sharp. CAROLINA HONOR is the value. Third on this track at 81-1 last out and second at 10-1 three back. Second time this distance can’t hurt.

EIGHTH RACE

DJIBOUTI is a beaten favorite in back to back starts and that stings. New barn is part of the mix and we’re betting this filly could use a change of scenery. That try two back was OK. A new jock for this to complete the makeover. BOURBON TIME is improving. She has a little route speed on the cut back to an elongated sprint. MARKET KITTEN tried a tough distance off the layoff yet still ran third. Maybe she just didn’t like Los Al? JAYA HO is by a 0 for 37 debut sire Her dam went 23-3-5-5 for 145K (won debut). Lone sib is 12-0-0-0. SHE’S IN THE GAME is by a 0 for 2 debut sire. Her dam went 44-6-6-5 for 21K. This is her first foal. A late start to racing for this 6YO but we saw a 9YO first time starter win on Wednesday.