Petrov might get ideal trip in Rebel

Santa Anita has the highest-graded stakes event Saturday with the Grade 1, $400,000 Santa Margarita, which features an interesting matchup between Finest City, last year’s champion female sprinter who is stretching out on dirt, and Vale Dori, who is looking for her fourth straight graded stakes victory. But there is also important stakes action at Oaklawn in the Grade 2, $900,000 Rebel; the Grade 2, $350,000 Azeri; and the $250,000 Essex Handicap. The remaining graded event Saturday is the Grade 2, $200,000 Inside Information at Gulfstream.

Rebel Stakes

I have developed a theory on Petrov, my play here, after his first two starts this year. I feel that Petrov drew dirty-work trips, having to keep a loose front-runner honest in the Smarty Jones Stakes two starts back and in the Southwest most recently, and did well to finish second in both races, even if he was soundly beaten in both. But Petrov could be much more effective if he has the chance to relax a little early and let someone else worry about keeping the pace honest.

Well, Petrov won’t have to be the one to ensure a fair pace Saturday. There are as many as five other early-speed types in this Rebel, meaning Petrov can sit just off them but still be in easy striking range and get first run on the deeper closers.

Petrov chased Uncontested early in both the Smarty Jones and Southwest, and that speedball would have been completely uncontested (literally) if it weren’t for Petrov’s efforts. Petrov couldn’t get to Uncontested in the Smarty Jones, which was run in the slop, but ran much better in the Southwest. Despite expending energy dogging Uncontested early, Petrov got the best of that opponent into the stretch, only to be run down late by One Liner, who enjoyed a perfect stalking trip, while finishing far ahead of the rest.

This time, Uncontested will see a lot of pace pressure and might even be outrun for the early lead by Malagacy, who romped sprinting at Gulfstream in his first two starts; the class-leaping Silver Bullion; Royal Mo, whose victory last month in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was his second straight front-running score in Southern California; and American Anthem, who engaged in a race-long duel with Gormley in the Sham Stakes last time and missed by just a head.

American Anthem is the one I fear most, though he won’t be much of a price. The Sham was only American Anthem’s second start, and his first around two turns, and it was to his credit that he gave the Grade 1 stakes-winning Gormley the battle he did. I understand that Gormley came back with a total dud in last week’s San Felipe Stakes, but I’m not convinced that Gormley’s inconsistency necessarily impugns the form of the Sham. I also think American Anthem might also be a suitable candidate for rating early.

Harrison E. Johnson Memorial

Laurel’s stakes-filled card on Feb. 18 was the big doings of that day, so a lot of people paid attention. What they saw was a rail that was profoundly dead. That’s why I have to use this race, and why I like Afleet Willy off a dead-rail trip that day.

I’m not certain that Afleet Willy really wants the nine furlongs of this race. But I do know he was inside all the way in the General George and actually ran well under the circumstances to be in contention to upper stretch before understandably tiring. Afleet Willy was in raging form before that and has been successful going two turns in the past.

Essex Handicap

Mor Spirit is the one to beat off a fine second in the San Antonio, but I prefer Madefromlucky.

Madefromlucky ships in from Gulfstream, where he ran respectably in two stakes outings off a long layoff. He finished fourth in the Harlan’s Holiday in his first start back, an effort that was better than it looks on paper as he was forced to steady on the rail in midstretch, and followed with a willing third in the Poseidon on the Pegasus World Cup undercard. At heart, Madefromlucky is a closer, and I think being a horse with that style, he will do well getting out of Gulfstream. In general, the main track at Gulfstream does not really suit closing types.