ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, TWO CHARLEY’S

FIRST RACE

NONNA’S BOY fell short of heavily-favored Monster Mash last month, but that was another step in the right direction for now 5yo who had gone off form late last year; stretches back out for the first time since the claim with back form going long to contend here, and he can use his early speed to his advantage. CASTAWAY has held good form for these connections and has run well while coming up short in each of his last three attempts routing; shorter distance of this race may help him out a bit, but he may be one waiting on a turn back. DERBY GLASS didn’t fire behind Castaway when last seen back in January, but he is better than that, and is eligible to rebound quickly for Rudy, who is 38% off the claim with dirt routers over the past five years ($2.54 ROI).

SECOND RACE

Board may have something to say about full field of NY-bred maidens featuring several interesting first time starters. I guessed with LUCKY BUG, who has plenty of pedigree (from multiple stakes winning dam, she is a half to a pair of very good horses in Fox Rules and Fox Rox) and debuts for an underrated first out trainer. MISS SIZZLE figures to attract plenty of attention as a half to the Grade 1 sprinter Princess Violet, who raced for these connections; Hushion won with six first time starters in 2016 (from 18 to start), good for a $4.50 ROI. HOLIDAY DISGUISE a $220k yearling by a strong sire, and a half to eight-time sprint winner American Creed; Rice has won with seven first time starters dating back to just mid-November, though six of them have come in maiden claiming company.

THIRD RACE

NEVER GONE SOUTH jumped up to big new Beyer top when good-trip 3rd in the General George last time, but he was a promising horse right from the start, and one who never really got a 3yo campaign going, so that kind of forward move wasn’t out of nowhere; good post from which he can keep close in short but solid field lacking for a confirmed front-runner. Improved but unlucky LIFE IN SHAMBLES starting to pile up the excuses, but they are legitimate for the most part, and he can try to avoid some of that with an aggressive ride in this spot; switching to the right rider to try it. EIGHTY THREE got good for Jacobson during the last meeting here, and he carried that good form all the way into the summer before hitting the sidelines following Grade 2 try in Florida; can improve second back after chasing a loose on the lead Chief Lion in his comeback race. CLASSY CLASS chased all the way and finished just behind NEVER GONE SOUTH in the General George, and he got off to a terrible start before racing on all the way in the Toboggan one start prior to that; fits here and shouldn’t be compromised by pace, but not sure how short a price he is supposed to be.

FOURTH RACE

TIPIT has races to get to that would make him tough in this race, and there are ways to look at his recent form that would dress him up a bit, including that last one where he was off slowly from the gate vs. a much stronger group for the level; needs a trip this time, but it’s the right kind of field for him. Didn’t want to settle for CATS LANDING, wheeling back quickly and into an easier spot, though he is clearly a strong contender here; he didn’t run well while trying to chase the pace off the claim, but he was holding decent form prior to that one, and Englehart has a solid history with dirt sprinters second off the claim (past five years: 36 for 125, 29%, $2.45 ROI). CHOSEN ONE ELIJAH finally broke through with a maiden win two starts back, and he chased in that same race along with CATS LANDING last time, before weakening in the stretch; consistent gelding can make his own trip.

FIFTH RACE

DO SHARE started improving toward the end of last year, and he has carried that improvement through a couple of trainer changes to pair up new Beyer tops in his first two starts for this trainer; good effort last time when held up in some traffic out of the turn before making ground on a front-running

winner late. PORTFOLIO MANAGER a horse to look out for if he can keep himself together, as he has flashed real potential from limited starts, and through one long layoff already; don’t love that he has missed another 114 days since returning to the races last November, but he ran well that day while matching his Beyer top. CURIOUS CAL been shopping for a spot since claimed back in January, several of them in the lower-level claiming ranks, though it never seemed he was going to run in those races; tough with his good race, and he may be the best speed in this field.

SIXTH RACE

TWO CHARLEY’S faced some tough competition, and held his own, out of town, before trying to stretch out in his NY debut; turned back last time and dropped a tough one after major trouble at the start left him behind the field, and forced him into a long run which he carried all the way to the wire before falling short of a front-running winner at the end; another chance. GATOR SPY an bit of an unknown making NY and dirt debut off a trainer change, but thought he went well in his two Woodbine starts as a 2yo, and Donk has a good record with new acquisitions from a relatively small sample (past five years: 6 for 23, 26%, $5.65 ROI). ITALIAN SYNDICATE got unlucky a couple of times after debuting in a super tough race at Saratoga, but he took no prisoners when blowing out a weak field in first start for Rudy, and earned a solid figure in the process.

SEVENTH RACE

Would be more confident in MILLS were he more of a winning-type, but he has transferred to dirt effectively since switching over, and he may be the one to take out of that 2/19 heat after finishing gamely into a rated pace; should have a better setup this time, assuming the field stays intact, and he should be running at the end. BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON had enough trouble at the back of the pack to be considered unlucky when falling short of STORMIN MONARCHO two starts back, then took his shot up on the pace last time, and was just out-finished at the end; can revert to an off-the-pace style this time, and he is always a price. MR PALMER back in form and looking for fourth straight for streaking Joe Parker after grinding down a solid field last month (though there were a couple of no-shows in that race); horse to beat. STORMIN MONARCHO has also gotten back into form since claimed by Rudy; was fighting on gamely in the stretch last time until appearing to jump something on the track past mid-stretch, though he got away with an easy pace in that spot.

EIGHTH RACE

ULTIMATE HOLIDAY stepping up into a much tougher race after dominating a field right on the front end last time, but she has really improved since arriving in NY for Nevin, and she posted both California wins without the benefit of the early lead; likely to have to step it up, but the favorites in this Correction are far from scary. CLOTHES FALL OFF feels like the right horse to beat as she steps back out of game Fritchie try where she had a good trip, but just bumped into a couple of fillies who are better than she is; impressed in winning this race last year, and she defeated a rival that day in Paulassilverlining who is better than anything she lines up against in this renewal. KALABAKA also looking to step it up in stakes company, and also doing it at the right time after finding the best form of her career recently; unlucky not to have four in a row on the way in here after losing position behind a modest pace and just falling short in that race on 12/2.

NINTH RACE

FLATTERFLY bombed on the stretch out last time; drops again while turning nd back for this, and she ran better than it looks after losing all chance at the start two back. SASSY AFFAIR debuting in the right kind of field for trainer who can win with a first time starter, and she has some pedigree as a half to Cotton Candy Cutie, out of a dam who is a sister to the Grade 1 sprinters Madcap Escapade and Dubai Escapade. SICILIA CONNIE appeared to be one who could build upon her debut run where she was off slowly and ridden conservatively, before getting into 3rd late, and she did flash more speed second time out, before giving way as the favorite; drops again.