ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, KENJISSTORM

FIRST RACE

A turf route for Cal-bred maidens, this is the stronger split of race 10. HIGHLIGHT SHOW is positioned for a mild upset returning to state-bred company after pressing a hot pace and fading against open company. The improving colt showed two back he can rally from behind when fifth against statebreds; his most recent start was an improved effort even though he finished next to last. Scratched Feb. 18 (off turf), HIGHLIGHT SHOW can score at a price. The familiar faces are only okay, so far. CHEEKABOOMBOOM and I CAN DO THIS finished three-two last out in the off-turf race from which the top choice scratched. ‘BOOMBOOM finished in the money in back-to-back off-turf races; his career debut Nov. 25 was a better-than-looked fourth on grass that hints he may prefer grass. Tough outside post, he will be running late. I CAN DO THIS adds blinkers after an improved runnerup effort last. Turf is an uncertainty, his current form is not. He is likely to be among the favorites. BOTTLE SERVICE will appreciate a return to turf.

SECOND RACE

Small field, led by tough campaigners TRIBAL JEWEL (11-for-45) and CITY STEEL (10-for-35). Both have run well recently vs. company similar to this $40k claiming field. TRIBAL JEWEL’s only start this meet was third vs. better; he returns from a brief layoff for 10-for-28 trainer Bill Spawr, who has always done well with fresh stock. He was claimed for $40k last out, but the claim was voided. No matter, the “best horse” in the right spot, with tactical speed for a pressing trip under Martin Pedroza, ‘JEWEL is the one to beat. CITY STEEL is having a good winter, in the money all three starts including a sharp win vs. lesser. He is a 7-year-old, the highest level at which he won is $25k claiming; this is $40k. Still, he belongs off solid recent form and the winning habit. LUCKY J LANE was re-claimed last out by Ron Ellis, who had success with the gelding last summer. ‘LANE turned in a series of solid efforts for Ellis. ‘JANE has won two of his last five, handles all surfaces, and enters off a $25k claiming win at Golden Gate Fields over an ordinary foe (Royal Banker). MADIBA and DUKES UP have qualifications. MADIBA has good back numbers against better, and is a first-time gelding for a trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) having a big meet. DUKES UP is the fifth choice in a five-horse field, trained by under-rated low profile Michael Ewing.

THIRD RACE

DALSAROS was a well-bet disappointment in his debut, seventh at even-money in a downhill turf sprint. If she had an alibi, it was not apparent. Willing to give the well-bred filly another chance on the stretch-out. She should like two turns, and ran like a first-time starter with a whole lot of improvement forthcoming second time out. By Unbridled’s Song, she is the first foal produced by G1 winner Ask the Moon. YELLOW BONNET got bumped leaving the gate, and then misfired two weeks ago on turf. Disappointing, to say the least. But her dirt race two back was an okay second (on a slow pace), so maybe she prefers the main track. ROAD TEST is improving rapidly. Runner-up when she stretched to a route two back vs. maiden-claiming company, then runner-up last time against winners, now she is back with maidens on an upward pattern of improvement and figures. MALIBU ROYALTY has a good comeback under her belt, blinkers on for her second start back. No reason she won’t be one of the contenders.

FOURTH RACE

Taking a shot with front-runner/presser KENJISSTORM in this N2X turf route. His comeback was solid, beaten less than three lengths after chasing a fast pace at one mile. Now he stretches to a mile and an eighth; the race is certain to unfold at an easier tempo. On or near the lead, second start back, upset chance with an up-front trip. The amazingly consistent RYE will come from the clouds. He has won 6 of his last 10 starts, all the same way, with a rally from far back. Like the top choice, he is trying to win