BEST BET: RACE 5, READTHEBYLINE

FIRST RACE

READY DANCER was gamely second-best at this level when claimed three starts back, and in two starts since he chased from the outside all the way over a track that strongly favored the inside on 2/26, and then got wired by his stablemate Lord Commander on a loose lead last time; can save the early ground from his inside draw, and he needn’t be far away from the pace. STREET HEAT faces claiming company for the first time in his return to NY after grinding out a 1x win last time with a perfect trip; hasn’t run particularly fast yet, but the class relief is needed, and isn’t a negative, as he seems unlikely to be defeating 2x allowance rivals. CHARMING INDY’s lone win since scoring on debut for an excellent first out trainer came vs. a trio of overmatched turf horses in a race originally scheduled for grass, but he was gamely secondbest to a front-running winner last time with a figure that makes him competitive, and he has an adaptable running style.

SECOND RACE

BUNYAAN the clear horse to beat in this maiden $40k, but NONEEDTOFLATTERME did a lot of racing in a fast-paced route on debut, only to succumb to a last-to-first winner at the end; best alternative, and a realistic one, the a likely heavy favorite. BUNYAAN just missed to class-dropping Super Psyche when returned to this level last time, and earned a new top figure in the process, but he appeared to get there in the stretch only to hang a bit at the end; clear horse to beat, but far from invincible. LOVE AND CARE a bit of a wildcard returning from a layoff to make his dirt debut with a trainer change to Rudy on a class drop, and he is a new gelding to boot; made a run in that career debut after acting green early, and something likely went wrong after that second start vs. a good field of turf horses.

THIRD RACE

INGRID has a layoff to overcome as she makes her first start as a 3yo, but 74 Beyer for juvenile filly debuting at Saratoga is strong, and she was visually impressive dominating that field all the way around the track after breaking right on top; will not have to do much better than that vs. this field. OVERNEGOTIATE back to her available condition after trying stakes company in her three starts following a successful debut; wanted to see her make some kind of run on the turn back last time, but that was a tough spot, and she fits much better with these horses. ZEALOUS SCHOLAR has the speed from the inside to make Ingrid work early, and she has run well in both of her starts to date for an underrated trainer; tried hard in that debut when contesting it with a well-meant second time starter, and she was never letting that field into the race last time after making the front.

FOURTH RACE

MY EKATI CAT seemed set up last time while turning back, dropping in class and switching from turf to dirt, and she made a run to get a short lead late in a race that was falling apart, only to get outclosed by the last run up the rail; not giving her an excuse for that one, but she may not have to do much better in this spot, and her only start sprinting was a good effort on debut at Churchill. JAX got up on the pace with eventual winner Courtmewithcarats and quickly proved to be no match off the layoff last time; can improve as she drops again in her second start back, but how good she actually is remains to be seen. HIGH END LADY dropped to this level last time and caught a race that featured a contested pace out in front, but she could finish evenly with the pack while proving to be no late threat; had obviously faced better prior to that, but she did no running in those races.

FIFTH RACE

READTHEBYLINE needed to come up with a good race after a spell of subpar efforts, and he found one last time, and did so despite being beaten to the front and then clipping heels into the first-turn, and then having some trouble getting himself fully clear in the stretch, only to just miss at the end; tough when he can get himself comfortable on the lead, and he appears to be lone speed here. BIG DISCOV-

ERY a closer who caught a very good set up last time with a fast pace in a stretched out field in front of him, but he closed it down strongly in the stretch in what appeared to be one of his better career efforts; tough if he can back that race up, but expected dynamics put him up against it. WIZARDLY another deep closer who may not get the kind of set up he needs, but he is better than that non-effort off the claim last time; drops with a trainer change.

SIXTH RACE

CONTROL GROUP failed as the favorite when dropping out of MSW competition last time, but he actually ran a solid race there on a contested pace before tiring late; Rudy deadly with maidens off the claim over the past five years: 17-for-38, 45%, $3.25 ROI. HONOR AND PLEASURE was last seen back in December in a race originally scheduled for turf, but he went well in that spot while showing speed before getting overpowered by a better horse; drops for the first time and has apparently been gelded since that race. PROMISE THE SKY made something of a promising debut when racing on late after getting outrun early, and then galloping out well past the wire, and thought he might improve with more distance considering his pedigree; that hasn’t happened, but he can benefit from the class drop.

SEVENTH RACE

TWO TIMES BOOK piling up the double-digit losses since posting most recent win last June, but he has been in some much tougher spots along the way, even when placed at this level as he bumped into a razor-sharp Patton Proud (92 Beyer) on 12/14 and a 1:5 favorite last time; may not be able to run anymore, but he has some back races that make him a contender, and he appears to be a need-the-lead type who can finally make the front by himself in this spot, as indicated by the TimeformUS Pace Projector. NEW YORK’S ZIP getting a proper turn back after failing to stretch out last time; game win in a race that collapsed for him two starts back, and he has improved a bit since claimed at the end of last year. DRIVING ME CRAZY right back in a logical spot after prevailing over two-life claimers last time; got the best of Chico Grade on a contested pace to win that last one, and while it wasn’t a visual masterpiece, he earned another figure that suggests he is going to be tough right back for a hot trainer.

EIGHTH RACE

Only really want two in this field, and SMILE BIG seems much more trustworthy than does SAY CIN CIN. SMILE BIG has proven herself to be effective on the main track, and her tactical speed gives her a slight edge on her main rival. SAY CIN CIN has run some of the best races in this field, but she can be her own worst enemy out there, and has cost herself more than one win while failing to work out a trip; may be the best horse in this field if she can get one with only five rivals to deal with. ARCH OR NOTHING stretching back out and stepping back up in class after pair of even performances sprinting vs. restricted claimers; broke her maiden over this course and distance, but that was a while ago now.

NINTH RACE

LADY’S FIRST dropped for her first start off the layoff, but got beaten to the front by Sliding Stones and chased her all the way to no avail; should be tighter for her second start back, and her speed figures to play in this field. MELODRAMATIC MISS has lost her last three starts at odds of 4:5, 3:5 and 2:5; didn’t go aggressively after breaking to the front last time, and wound up hanging on a first time starter that took the early lead, and would likely be better served by just sending this time. SAPPORO a stablemate of that first time starter who denied MELODRAMATIC MISS last time; 5yo makes her debut for a capable first out trainer, and her dam could run a little (won three of her four career starts, and was 2nd in the other).