ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, NINE POINT NINE

FIRST RACE

UNCLE GRUMPY stretches to two turns for the first time, as controlling speed in this small-field claiming route for 3yos. One mile is uncharted territory for the three-time winner, but he should be loose on the lead. SPANISH EYES arrives from Northern California having won two consecutive routes on synthetic. He is the best late threat, the question is dirt. MT. LEINSTER finished more than 10 lengths clear of third last out in a similar race. He probably will be positioned second behind the top choice, and would get first run if the pacesetter falters.

SECOND RACE

PRINCESS KENDRA raced evenly and finish fourth last out in a $16k claiming sprint, a class level possibly slightly out of reach. Nonetheless, the 4yo filly earned the best number of her career, drops a notch to $12.5k, and can win from off the pace. GOLIATH’S GIRL pressed her way to a lowrated win in a $10k claiming starter. She rarely wins fast (64 career-high Beyer), yet has won 5 of 15. She will be positioned in front of the top choice. NAZARETH drops in class and will be running late; WARRENSDOLLARSIGNS has run races fast enough. She returns from a freshening of nearly two months, and should influence the pace.

THIRD RACE

Runner-up in a N1X last out, AIN’T MISBEHAVIN drops into a $10k claiming starter. In a field filled with stretch-out sprinters (four of the six are stretching out), the pace should be quick enough to run at. AIN’T MISBEHAVIN will rally from last. OUT OF PATIENCE was claimed two months ago from a sharp win for $20k, his third win from his last four starts. He has run well with time between starts. I’LL WRAP IT UP finished second to the top choice last out in a $16k claiming starter.

FOURTH RACE

A mile and one-eighth on turf is a long way for NINE POINT NINE, but if she runs anything close to her runner-up finish three weeks ago in a N2X at a mile and one-quarter, she should win this $25k claiming starter allowance. The challenge is pace. There is other speed signed on. ENDURING ERIN was in too tough in a G2 last out, and finished a distant fifth. She is only 1-for-13 on turf, but she won a N2X on dirt two back, and should get a good trip forwardly placed while positioned right behind the speed. LIAR’S SMOKER stretches out from a sprint and will keep the pace honest.

FIFTH RACE

Second-time starter ADORNED showed promise in his runner-up debut in November; the Uncle Mo 3yo returns from a freshening with a solid workout pattern and a pedigree that okays the mile and a sixteenth trip. His main rivals are older maidens that have had many chances including six-start maiden HOLLYWOOD STRIKE and 13-start maiden UNINVITED. The runner-up comeback on this track by HOLLYWOOD STRIKE was the best race of his career, validated by the next-start maiden-50 win by third-place finisher Pappou. UNINVITED enters with five consecutive runner-up finishes, in the money 9 of 13. Someday.

SIXTH RACE

AGUACATE should appreciate the shorter distance as she tries to downhill course and drops slightly from special-weight to maiden-75. She faded in most route races including her comeback three weeks ago. That speed-and-fade pattern running long often leads to success running short. With a prep race under her belt, expect an improved effort on the hill, vs. easier. FABULOUS LADY has something the top choice lacks. That is, experience on the hill. She ran like she needed a start in her January comeback; she drops in for a high tag second start back. Her third-place in a specialweight on this course during the fall meet would be plenty good enough. ISLA CITY looms an upset candidate, second start of her career. She raced evenly behind a slow pace and finished seventh in her debut two weeks ago. Now she drops in class

for a trainer whose second-start maidens this meet have been dynamite. Mark Glatt is 3-for-5 this meet with second-start maidens.

SEVENTH RACE

In a close call between sharp stretch-out sprinter SKYE DIAMONDS and stakes-winning route filly SHEER PELASURE, the call in this route stakes for California-bred fillies and mares is ‘DIAMONDS. She trounced N2X sprinters last out with a big figure (95 Beyer), her third win in four starts since claimed by Bill Spawr for $40k. She continues to work super; her versatile running style suggests one mile is within reach. SHEER PLEASURE may have wheeled back too soon (three weeks) last out, and regressed from her sharp comeback. Freshened six weeks, dropping from Grade 2 into a state-bred stakes race thta she won a year ago, ‘PLEASURE is an established route filly that will rally from just off the pace. This state-bred stakes is a lot easier than the G2s she has been running in. ROO’S VALENTINE will keep the pace honest. She upset N2X turf sprinters in her comeback, and scratched from a downhill stakes last week to go in this mile race. Honest filly has won 4 of 13 including a Cal-bred route stakes as a 2yo.

EIGHTH RACE

PLACE DES VOSGES defeated a suspect field last out in a N1X; the class hike to N2X will be difficult. However, this field is void of current form. At least ‘VOSGES ran well in a recent race. Furthermore, her pressing style could play well in a race that lacks genuine pace. Despite questions about the field she beat last out (2-3 finishers returned Thursday to finish 5-3), ‘VOSGES is on an upward pattern for trainer Richard Baltas. She is the tepid choice to win right back. BARLEYSUGAR makes her first start in nearly three months, while dropping from a series of graded stakes. She runs well fresh, won her U.S. debut at this nine-furlong distance, and earned speed figures among the tops in this lineup. HIKING has not started since July, and probably needs a start. But her form last year compares favorably to her rivals. DEL MAR ANN, stable mate of the top choice, stretches out from a comeback. She should be forwardly placed.

NINTH RACE

PASSED BY PAUL was compromised by trip last time, fifth as the 6-5 favorite. Trouble is, he could get sucked into the same trip this time after drawing the inside post. The gelding dueled inside though a fast pace last time at seven furlongs, and cracked the final eighth. He drops one more notch to maiden-30, shortens slightly to six and a half, and meets an apparently modest bunch. But if he is pressured again, likely considering his post, he could be vulnerable again. EDWARDS GOING LEFT broke slowly, raced greenly and finished far back in his debut. However, he was claimed by a trainer that does well with maidens first off the claim. The past five years, John Sadler is 11-for-36 with maidens f.o.c. Likely improvement with a race under his belt. MIND READER drops from special-weight to maiden-30 while also making his first start since he was gelded. First-time starter LUCKY LUCCIANA is a new face in a weak race.