ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, FAULT

FIRST RACE

CHARLIE’S AFFAIR hadn’t raced in more than seven months when he finished eighth on Dec. 6 in perhaps the best La-bred N2X turf-route allowance ($20K claiming option) run this meet. He won his only other grass start, which came on the FG course, and should be a fitter horse than he was in the most recent turf run. Will be a much longer price, one assumes, than the likely favorite OLE SKIP ROPE. OSR in fact after an La-bred N1X turf allowance win two back did not run much better last time than the top pick did at the N2X level. He’s a horse that lacks positional pace and needs racing luck, too. Front-running type SID VICIOUS will be hard pressed to lead all the way on turf, but might find himself in a good spot if this race gets moved to the main track.

SECOND RACE

K C’S CALL got too far behind the speed (might not have been handling grass?) in what seemed like a pretty solid race for the class level last time, and rallied decently for fourth. Sharply middle-moved his way to a dirt win in a similar spot two back, and can pounce on likely leader DREAMING OF JOEY before he can open up in stretch. Didn’t realize Dreaming of Joey had a stalk-and-pounce win in him, but that’s how he got home last time. Previous win was speed-bias aided. Still think he’s on shaky ground right now, but unless E. M. MAXIMUS goes with him, he could wind up lone speed. E.M. Maximus has seen better days, and unless you think the OP to FG move is going to boost him, there’s not a ton to like, but you know, there are only seven horses in this race, and someone is going to finish third.

THIRD RACE

SIR BALLANTINE got too jacked up early in his last race with blinkers added and paid the price late, and the best horse in that MSW clearly are better than the best in this $50K maiden-claimer. Since Lasix was added two back, he might have bled three back in his only other two-turn dirt race, and his one-turn-mile AQU debut wasn’t bad. Worked three times since last, and can’t see why his odds would be as high as 9/2. SPARTY BOY is the one horse in the race not running for less than his published purchase price. He debuted in an MSW sprint and ran an even-paced raced suggesting he might prefer going long, and he’s out of an A.P. Indy mare, as far as stamina goes. Makes sense here. Minnesota-bred GRAND MARAIS might not have cared for mud first time out, and got too much of Sir Ballantine’s fast fractions in his second start.

FOURTH RACE

GOOD INTENT’s only turf sprint came two starts ago, when he was fourth in an N1X allowance race won well by The Zip Zip Man. The place horse was back to win an N1X turf-sprint allowance last racing week, and the show horse in his next start easily won an N1X allowance at Houston with a 73 Beyer. That form seems plenty good enough to earn him a high placing as he drops into an N2L claimer. WILD MAN has been rained off turf the last three times he was entered to race on the surface, and in his lone grass try was a pretty good fourth in a local $50K stakes at a distance farther than his best. CONSEQUENTIAL has run in five straight two-turn races but the lone win of his career came last summer at this 5.5-furlong sprint trip.

FIFTH RACE

SAMMIE’S TOUCH ran well enough to win this race first time out this meet, but declined in two subsequent starts. Freshened up since and enters with two lively half-mile drills. She was a convincing winner over similar if not stronger competition at this abbreviated distance at the end of the last Fair Grounds meet. The 10/1 odds would very much

appeal if on offer. TOUGH JEANS has done Delta and Evangeline, but does she do Fair Grounds? Had a productive winter, but has gotten into a rhythm in two-turn sprints and not sure she’ll be repeating that form. LADY EMILY SAGE trounced lesser at this distance when last seen at FG three races ago, and has continued on in similarly strong form at DED, but she does appear to be at her ceiling coming into this start.

SIXTH RACE

MS BROWN GRAVY makes her first start outside the maiden-special weight ranks and gets first look on turf. She’s by Big Brown, and a lot of his offspring (Dortmund not included) do well when switched to grass. RITA’S FIFTY SEVEN finally ends her long quest to clear the MSW ranks, and she never did run back to her promising debut. She will definitely appreciate a significant step down in class, but did not look especially strong in her lone previous turf start. L’ATELIER gets a look on turf first start off claim, and had a rough go of things last out in just her second start. The race looks soft for the class level, and maybe she’s not overmatched.

SEVENTH RACE

Lets be clear that there was a strong backstretch tail-wind March 4 producing very fast early fractions in sprints. Even so, CLOSING AHEAD went fast contesting the lead for a horse debuting in a $12.5K maiden-claimer in a race dominated by closers. Understandable he’d tire, and perhaps he rates a touch more second time out. READY RIGHT NOW rallied for second into the same hot pace that compromised the top pick, but he has other characteristics that make him look like a main contender. Blinkers on, for whatever that’s worth. First-timer WEASELLIN THRU has a sketchy work pattern and a wide draw but hints at being competitive for this price.

EIGHTH RACE

Don’t see too many La-breds that fetch $195K at auction like CASSIDY’S REWARD. She was so bad in her career debut Dec. 10 that it’s not all that difficult to just throw out the race and give her another chance. Her work pattern is very solid. Not sure whether it’s good sign or not that she worked a blazing half from gate March 20. Doubt she’s as high as 8/1 morning-line, but still should be some value with EFFORTING as the strong favorite. Betting public had the wrong Al Stall first-timer when EFFORTING was run over by stable-mate (and subsequent repeat winner) My Miss Chiff at even money first out. Similar story second time out when she was defeated at 1/2, albeit by a good-looking winner and after a speed duel, and while finishing 14 clear of House Cat in third. She’s the most likely winner, but the price is going to be very low again. VINTON’S VIN GEAUX was all right making career debut on turf and is not really bred like a grass horse.

NINTH RACE

FAULT had an encouraging debut on turf, and was somewhat surprised given her significantly grassleaning pedigree that she was able to clear the MSW ranks on dirt second out. Went backward second time on main track, and now returns to what probably is her preferred surface. Nice break between starts with encouraging work. Could she really be 5/1? SHES TRICKEY just missed getting to Deer Valley, who was a pretty good 2yo turf filly, in the only grass race of her career. She looks talented enough to get a major piece, and the evidence is she can get over grass, but can she stay two turns? Faded doing that at DED last time, but jury still out. RUM GO did manage third in the Jessamine S. last fall at KEE but was 84/1 in the race and kind of just ran around there even-paced, which was how she looked last out in local stakes.

TENTH RACE

Expecting this race to fall apart with an overload of early and middle speed from the inside to the outside. No idea of WESLEY’S DREAM has enough fast-twitch character to get up at a short sprint, but he is on a significant class drop at a price while turning back from routes, so will chance it here. HONEST DANDY might be able to take back off the pace - might, but not for sure. Often has raced in fairly close attendance. He’s on a similar drop to the top pick but probably at roughly one-fourth the price. BAM BAM’S PRIDE might be incrementally working way toward a winning performance. A good sign he closed some ground last time, but like several here is back on pretty short rest.