ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, TIMBERFALLER

FIRST RACE

SUM RACER has some speed but probably isn’t as quick as the outside speed but that could still get her a second Lone F trip. She seems capable off a short layoff and certainly fits on class. A new jock is noted. MEMO FROM PAT just won gate to wire but this barn is only 8% with their repeating winners. Second time Scott Stevens and not a ton of pace in this race are the plusses. DIAMOND CUT gets new scenery as she escapes SoCal foes for the leading barn. Deep closer does not get good race flow so her A game is needed.

SECOND RACE

YZITMYFAULT did get a 20 Beyer Speed Figure in her debut as a 2YO. She figures more mature now while no one is better off a long layoff than team Tracy (52%, $7.54). This barn has/had similar runners on Sunday and Monday so check out those results. LEHIGH ran OK in her debut and it was against better. Her follow up was poor even if stuck 7 wide. New barn is a solid 15% off the claim. State-bred jumps in class. BEAU ME FAST showed a little tactical speed in her debut before calling it a day. Class drop and a more manageable six furlongs could bring about a better try.

THIRD RACE

UNBRIDLED BOUNTY doesn’t face a whole lot in here as would be expected. We have seen more than a few Finger Lakes shippers like it here. What if she needed that start off the long van ride four back? Her try three back, versus open foes, was decent. Then another layoff so maybe two back was needed again. Two turns on the grass last out just didn’t work out and she was 81-1. DOWN LOW MAMA just ran well enough to win this. Did the jock switch to Ramgeet bring about the better try? The one to beat...we guess. SURF QUEEN actually showed a little speed previously and that might hint at improving form. Against these .... that is plenty.

FOURTH RACE

IRISH LASS did win on this sod only three back. Connections thought enough of her to try stakes foes next out and she only lost by 4 lengths. Now she returns to the grass against a so so group. SHE’S MY COOKIE is the fresh face from NoCal that ends up with Diodoro. He could have dropped this filly to the $3,500 level but since he doesn’t that might bode well. FORMAL CHOICE ran evenly on the grass previously and it was her first turf start. Lone sib is a multiple grass winner. Let’s see if second time weeds and a class drop can bring about a better try. SWISS CAUSE is by a 9% debut turf sire. Her dam went 4-0-0-0 on the sod. Two sibs tried the green and both failed to hit the board.

FIFTH RACE

There is little pace in this race and that should put TIMBERFALLER on the engine. The last time he got an early breather, he won at Emerald with a 71 Beyer. Some of the best speed plays are ones that look off form. Wire please. DOC WEST is just an EZ pick. If this race wasn’t so pace-less then we would have picked him on top. EDDIE WOULD GO is feeling good and just likes it here. Off the pace style hurts though.

SIXTH RACE

COPPER CREEK has some speed but can run hooked. His upside is the best but not sure that means a whole lot at this level. A stalking trip chasing the 3 would work for us. LAND OF OZ takes a big drop in class and puts the blinkers ON. He can pass runners if needed. HELD IN ESTEEM ran a tad better previously and does puts efforts together without a layoff. J/T combo at 0 for 20 is a bit alarming.

SEVENTH RACE

INDIAN SCHOOL is bred to like the green and just broke his maiden on this sod. Why not two in a row? He did debut in a turf route at Del Mar which is never easy. Few are better with repeating winners than the Rarick barn. MOST DETERMINED outran his odds in the Tempe Hcap. Could a better start have made a difference? These are easier but his chances for a regression can’t be overlooked especially if the price gets chalkish. WOLF BOUNTY is bred to really like the grass and just won his turf debut. Do you know who is better with repeating winners than the Rarick clan? Trainer