ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, SANILAC

FIRST RACE

The stakes action on Saturday’s card features 3-year-old Arkansas-bred fillies in the $100K Rainbow Miss, while other high points on the program include overnight races that drew Neck ‘n Neck, Smack Smack, The Pickett Factor, Rocket Time and Whateverbodywants. In the opener, SANILAC gets the nod as one who has seen steeper, and one who has an age and recency edge on some of these. She also is appealing for her tactical speed. SOUTHERN MUNNY exits a quick maiden allowance won by a well-bred sort. For this trip she adds blinkers and returns to a level similar to the one that produced her best career Beyer Figure. FIRSTRATE PROPOSAL gives up recency to these and also will be racing on dirt for the first time, but she shows a nice series of works at Oaklawn.

SECOND RACE

HARMONIC moves back into the claiming ranks after a good third against starter foes, in a race that was his first since November. CARLOS DANGEROUS makes the move back to two turns for his second start off the layoff and the last time he raced at the trip he popped a Beyer Speed Figure of 80. The number would put him right in the mix in this spot. MAGIC OF BELIEVING has some back class to call upon, while the same can be said for OT B BOB.

THIRD RACE

MAGICIAN MAN ran some competitive races last year at Saratoga and in his first start in six months last time out was beaten just over a length for everything. The start came at this distance and he would seem to have reason to move forward. HOT ITEM was just edged at this level last out, when finishing in front of top choice. He owns the field’s best lastrace Beyer Figure. BIG DINNER draws an improved post over his last race and could be sitting on a peak effort in his third start off the layoff.

FOURTH RACE

YOOOU DEN moves back to two turns and the last time she raced at the trip she was second at a simi- lar level. Also like that she is a seven-time winner facing some less-experienced rivals. STREET THUNDER draws a wide gate, but she’s up from Delta Downs and horses coming off that sandbased track often fare well at Oaklawn. FAB FOX is a capable sort who will be making her second start since December.

FIFTH RACE

NECK ‘N NECK ran a strong race off the bench last out, when second to a winner who made a bold move and drew clear in what was a powerful performance. As for NECK ‘N NECK, he was making his first start since June. He picks up more ground in his second race back and looking for him to make good use of the real estate. SMACK SMACK is a multiple stakes winner and near-millionaire who was stakes-placed earlier in the meet in the $125K Fifth Season. In his most recent start, he hooked Grade 1 winner Gun Runner. SMACK SMACK could be sitting on a peak effort in his third start since November. THE PICKETT FACTOR has more natural speed than a number of these and is moving to a distance that suits him well, according to Irwin. THE PICKETT FACTOR also will be removing blinkers, and that is a high percentage equipment move for the barn. ROCKET TIME should be sharp for the move back to two turns off the sprint start, while adding further depth to a strong field are SOLVE and WAY STRIKING.

SIXTH RACE

MANHATTAN MISCHIEF was second last out in a quick race. He can be closer to the pace than a number of these, and draws a post that might give Santana options. MEDAL OF COURAGE was third in a quick starter allowance last out and like that he was favored in the race. He is a winner at the meet.

GORDY FLORIDA has more natural speed than a number of these, which might give him a tactical advantage. He also owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Speed Figure, and could be sitting on a peak effort in his third start off the layoff. WHATEVERYBODYWANTS launches his season. Last year, he was second in the West Virginia Derby won by Cupid and also ran a close third in the Super Derby.

SEVENTH RACE

PRIVATE PROSPECT did well in his last start to close from last for second to a winner who took control from the bell that afternoon. This one could be sitting on a peak race in his third start since November. ROYAL LION is back on dirt and his best recent race came on the main track, at this mile and a sixteenth distance. He’s proven to be a runner of some quality. BIG TACO showed speed last out when a good fourth to a quality kind of winner. He toted 125 and this time around is in at 118.

EIGHTH RACE

LAWTON and HOT SHOT KID both exit a quick, deep maiden special weight sprint. The winner was made a late nominee to the Triple Crown following the start, and came back one race later and captured a conditioned allowance at Oaklawn. VISIONARY TALE was favored in his debut last time and ran a big race, dueling and holding for second in a maiden allowance that went in 1:10.80. For the effort he earned what ranks as this field’s best last-race Beyer Figure.

NINTH RACE

DUTCH PARROT cuts back to one turn and returns to the statebred ranks and the last time she raced under such conditions she was second by a neck to stakes winner Easter Indy in an allowance against older rivals. Following the start, Easter Indy came back and won the $100K Downthedustyroad. As for DUTCH PARROT, she was entered in an allowance earlier in the week at Oaklawn and trainer Van Meter said Thursday morning the intent was to run her in that allowance route and scratch from this spot, the Rainbow Miss. MS FIFTY FIRST ST. exits the same open company route as top choice and also moves back to a statebred sprint. The last time she raced around one turn she dominated a maiden special weight, defeating a handful of these. SUPERSTAR BEA is a maiden facing winners, but she was favored against a maiden allowance crowd last time and did not have the clearest of sailing in the race. She seems to have stepped up her game on dirt after launching her career on turf, and she also could be sitting on a peak race in her third out since December.

TENTH RACE

It’s a sort of holy race to close out the card, with starters named SING HIM A SONG, WATER INTO WINE, REVEREND SAM and MONDAY CONFESSION. Siding here with FUNNY QUESTIONS, who was third in a quick race last out to launch his season. He would seem to have reason to move forward here, in his second start since July. SING HIM A SONG is a consistent sort who owns competitive Beyer Figures. STEAMROLLER faces older rivals, but makes the meaningful move to the maiden claiming ranks. He fired a bullet in preparation for his return to dirt.