ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, WHAT’S UP GUS

FIRST RACE

DOROTHY ANN is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam went 8-1-1-2 for 34K. Of 9 sibs to race, 8 won and 5 beat winners (all 5 won 3 times). One sibling won its 2YO debut. Works are perfect and Beauregard seems to get this barn’s best runners. Now as for the depressing price of first time starters around here .... oh, well. OLIVIA THE STAR can pass runners and gets good race flow. A nice even try off the layoff so a move forward is more likely than not. BO BEEP popped and stopped in her debut but there is nothing wrong with that. Notice that she got some play at 7/2. ONE HOT NAVIGATOR is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. Of 3 sibs to race, 2 won including a multiple winner of 31K.

SECOND RACE

PREACHIN AT SAGOI has some tactical speed, at times, and catches a race with very little speed. Whichever jockey sends hardest is going to clear off but there are 2 or 3 that fit that bill. We think our top pick is feeling a little better of late and does drop in class. DANZIG FLARE is feeling better than all and even more so if you think a not so great start cost her two back. Why is she such a good price in her last four starts? Lopez knows this mare as he rode back to back to back at the end of 2016. FLYER WRIGHT might show speed. That was a nice win at six furlongs four back. Toss that try three back when fractious at the gate.

THIRD RACE

BLAZED didn’t get much play off the layoff at over 8-1 even though shipping in from Santa Anita and having a very good turf pedigree (337 grass Tomlinson). She still ran nicely even if squandering an early breather. We see a step forward today while second time turf an added bonus. THE GIRL WITH THE CURL will get there one of these days. Perhaps the equipment change is the missing link. SWEET NORTHERN ROSE has run evenly in both turf tries. New barn keeps the leading rider. SPIN LADY is by a 0 for 24 debut turf sire. Her dam went 5-0-0-2 on the green for 2K and this is her first foal. MUSIC AND ART is by a 11% debut turf sire. Her dam went 2-0-0-0 on the weeds. One of two sibs won on the grass.

FOURTH RACE

PARADISE HIGH catches a pace-less affair so that hurts. Current form and real dirt ability are without question. His most recent was better but still 11 points below his top so maybe he has one more step forward. JACKSON SUNDOWN has the best figs and drops in class. Hot barn puts then where they can win and this is probably another example of that. Even so, why add the blinkers? I B TANNER has some speed and draws inside and stretches out. Someone is going to find the front end, right? GOD OF WAR is a player.

FIFTH RACE

CAROLINA HONOR is the value and that is that. In her last four starts on this dirt, she has hit the exacta once and the board three times all at double digits. Sprint, sprint, and then a route while coming off a short layoff might work nicely. She seems more than capable around two turns. DON’T YOU WANT ME just didn’t fire off the layoff but it was a turf event. Nice to see that she has won on a real dirt surface before. Trainer stats are solid across the board. GUIA ran nicely around two turns only two back before bouncing in a dirt sprint. The Rarick barn is only 3 for 5 on the stretch-out.

SIXTH RACE

HARD NINE is coming around. A poor start might have cost him the W last out at almost 18-1. We know this gelding well and he is capable of putting good tries together. Race flow works in his favor as there isn’t that much pace in here. DUALLY AFFIRMED has good figs, tactical speed, and a rider switch to Ramgeet. SCIATICA shakes things up with the move to two turns. Second off the medium layoff might be a good time for that.

SEVENTH RACE

WHAT’S UP GUS gets back to a dirt route and he might like that best (2-1-1-0). The Talbot barn is very good turf to dirt, dirt, routes, and claimers. This same owner/trainer has an identical runner in the next race (turf to dirt). They may own the

late double. RONNIE CLOUD is just better of late. Versatile style is a plus. I’M COMING THROUGH is a proven router that loves to settle for less.

EIGHTH RACE

SIDURI drops in class and goes turf to dirt which is a very good move for this barn. This filly is a horse for course that might be a decent price. Race flow is only average for this closer and we’re not positive that six furlongs is long enough but that isn’t enough to talk ourselves off of her. AIKMAN’S GAL switched riders and just won. We have always liked this runner. MARKET MAYHEM drops way down in class. Too much? She has worked twice in March. Let the guessing game begin.