ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, BLIND DEVOTION

FIRST RACE

DECORATOR JENN finally broke through in the slop after running quite well without getting it done in first three career starts; actually think this shorter distance is better for her, and her trainer is solid with last out maiden winners. LUNA RISING posted lone career win on the front end with a solid figure over DECORATOR JENN, though that one was on debut in that spot; may not be able to make the lead in this field, but she has run well enough from just off it in each of her last two, and she is wellposted on the outside. AUDRIQUE flashed good speed in MSW debut but was no match for those horses; contested the pace with longshot Miss Helen and prevailed on the drop at GP last time, and is likely to be heading out for the lead once again in this spot.

SECOND RACE

BLIND DEVOTION had some circumstances in her favor during good run upon her return from Finger Lakes at the end of last year, in particular that easy lead when winning for the third time in her career last December, but she was holding decent form overall, and she is getting back to the right level here after a brief freshening; good spot for Carmouche to use her speed from the inside draw. CHAMPAGNE RUBY figures tougher as she drops back down following trio of modest efforts off the claim for Midwest/Gargan; may be most likely to prevail in this field, but she has always been an infrequent winner, and her lone victory since claimed away from Linda Rice at the end of 2015 came in a race where the favorite sped off on a fast pace and stopped. LADY LUCIANO has back races that would easily handle this field, but her recent stretch of races leave something to be desired; drops back down in class looking to turn it around.

THIRD RACE

DIRECT MESSAGE has kept some pretty strong company from the beginning, and he was improving from start to start before getting in over his head in the Lexington (where he did not run poorly); was involved in some bumping at the start before giving way readily at GP last time, but that was his first start back from a long layoff, and this would be a good spot for them to use some of his speed to get forward from the outset. BATTLE MIDWAY is the horse to beat in current form, which he has found and kept since claimed by Cannizzo; strong win in Claiming Championship over this track and trip last time over a solid field. TATHQEEF can have one more after getting away last and racing wide behind a blowout winner last time, though he didn’t do much running in that spot; thought his stateside & dirt debut was only okay with a figure that gives him no edge here.

FOURTH RACE

MADAME AMBASSADOR made a very promising debut while improving her position all the way from the back, only to have the impressive and well-rated Lady Bergen run away from her once she got into range at the top of the stretch; has layoff to overcome, but she is a threat here with any improvement for trainer who points to turf at this time of the year. PINCHBECK made pair of turf starts in open company down at Tampa over the winter, and she got caught in traffic without coming clear in the first one, before contesting the pace throughout the second time, only to get closed down at the end; must use. SILLY NUMBERS had worked her way into contention when catching traffic and clipping heels on debut, and she returned with another good effort to just miss in her second career start; tough post off the layoff, but her 2yo form is solid. HALCYON out of the Grade3-winning turf mare Strike It Rich debuting for an excellent first out trainer.

FIFTH RACE

THE BROWN BOMBER didn’t do a ton of running on debut, but he did act a bit green in that race, which has so far come back pretty strong with the winner returning in a much tougher spot to run a 78 Beyer, and the runnerup coming back to win here Wednesday; slight class drop and blinkers on for second start. CORAL RIDGE didn’t show all that much in his first two starts, though they are separated by a pretty long layoff; showed something last time just to catch up to that field and

then finish in mid-pack after completely blowing the break. Debut race for CIRCUMNAVIGATE didn’t come back fast, and not a big fan of the horse he lost to, but all in all he ran pretty well there to be a clear second-best; good spot for him to use his speed here.

SIXTH RACE

CLOSING BELL took ambitious trip to Australia to no avail at the end of 2016, but did so while in good from despite having not won in his first four starts of the year; got unlucky in Tampa return when intimidated down on the rail in upper-stretch, before getting shut off down there, but he rallied gamely too late once altering clear. IRON POWER getting up there, but he is a better turf horse, and never really got any kind of campaign going to judge him off last year; has speed to go along with series of fast races on the go-back. UNBRIDLED OCEAN not quite a stakes horse on turf, but he fits right in at this level, and his first two starts back from an extended layoff are both pretty good vs. strong competition; gets a nice backup in DOCS LEGACY, who wasn’t in his best form prior to the layoff, but could easily turn it around off the short freshening. ARCATURE has forward to go as a lightly-raced 4yo, and one who was relatively ambitiously campaigned last year, but he has to improve vs. this field, and he is not likely to offer much value for this trainer.

SEVENTH RACE

BIG MARA didn’t run her best race before the layoff, but she didn’t get the most comfortable trip in that spot, either, and she was off last and then steadied over to the inside in a race that was wired on a modest pace two starts back; think she can go with these with her best race, and she figures to be a square price. BEE NOTEWORTHY has been holding good form since starting back from a long layoff at Saratoga, and her last race is likely better than it looks after Play Me a Memory returned to upset a much tougher field here last week with a 75 Beyer; good post on the outside to go along with her tactical speed. VICKI’S DANCER has been laid up for 11 months since claimed from her last start, so it bears watching as to whether she returns resembling the same horse, but she has several races in her past that would make her hard on this field, and she has speed.

EIGHTH RACE

QUEEN OF SPADES shipped up to NY on the drop for second career start and wired a field of maidens with a strong finish, before getting in too tough in her next two starts, including one vs. colts; back to turf and back down in class for first start back, and she is perfectly drawn inside. NOUVELLE VAGUE the horse to beat as she drops back down for Chad; don’t think she has done anything so special in her three starts since arriving, and that includes her one race at this level where she had a good trip overall, but she is difficult to leave out. TAPA LIATH has tailed off on the main track, but thought she went well in that return on turf last November, and she is going to appreciate this class relief; deserves a chance to see what she still has on turf before giving up on her.