ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, PAY ANY PRICE

FIRST RACE

HOLTERS GIRL broke a half-step slow and went wide around the turn in her first race this year and just her second lifetime start. She moves inside and could take a big step forward with a race behind her. She didn’t get beat by all that much by BETTABE FAST who just missed as the chalk. BETTABE FAST is an obvious contender and could take them all the way if she can clear early. DADDY’S HEIRESS keeps improving and if she continues to progress she should be right there. A FASHION AFFAIR adds blinkers and the past five years Bourgeois has a 24 percent strike rate and $2.98 ROI with horses wearing them the first time. She looks pretty live in a competitive race.

SECOND RACE

PURE COTTON has been away for over 19 months but has fired a couple of bullets leading up to his return and catches a pretty weak field for his comeback race. The winner of his latest romped in a first-level allowance race two races later and was good enough to be the runner-up in a $100K stakes race. He looks like the best speed and could be gone if he breaks on top. TIME WILL TELL ran well over this surface last year and may have tipped his hand with a sharp 5-furlong move April 7. He might want more distance, though. THREE STAR STONE has decent tactical speed and has been part of the tri in 9 of his 12 starts. At the very least he should be part of any exotics ticket.

THIRD RACE

E Z’S MISTRESS could be tailing off after a couple of strong races in Jan. and Feb., but she has been facing tougher and the last time she ran at this level she won. She could be the one in a wide-open event. MIA drops to a new low and should move forward after forcing the issue in her first start this year in the $75K Any Limit won by Who’s the Lady who is undefeated in four starts. MIA came back with a sharp 3-furlong move and she was right there in most of her races last year. SOUTH looks primed for a big effort coming off the bench for a trainer who has solid numbers with new horses. NOLA FASHION and TONINA will be rolling late and should be considered for the exotics.

FOURTH RACE

CLASS AND CASH was an easy winner of his first two starts this year and has enough speed to take advantage of his inside post If he retains his current form he’ll be tough to handle. MY POINT EXACTLY looks like the main threat. He won back-to-back races before being overmatched in the Grade 3 Appleton won by Grade 1 placed All Included. He ran okay, though, and he will obviously appreciate the easier company he’s meeting here. LAYTHATPISTOLDOWN won’t mind the cutback in distance and could take a big step forward for Navarro who the past five years has a 30 percent strike rate and $2.10 ROI with claimed horses making their second start for him. LAYTHATPISTOLDOWN knows where the wire is and the 12-time winner could pull off an upset if the top two get carried away up front.

FIFTH RACE

MY JOHNNY BE GOOD seems to have found his level and he obviously likes this surface. A repeat of his latest puts him right there. He goes for a new barn and the past five years his trainer has a respectable 15 percent strike rate with claimed horses running back the first time. LI’L MEATBALL becomes the top pick if it comes up wet and he could also win this if it stays dry. He romped in the slop at this level two back and then was overmatched in his latest. He also has good tactical speed and should get a nice trip sitting just off the top pick and DREAMING OF JOEY who will need to break sharply leaving from the rail. DREAMING OF JOEY also won’t mind a wet track and could

be gone if he breaks on top. He knows how to win races and 3 of his 14 scores came over this surface.

SIXTH RACE

RARE GEM could be sitting on a peak performance in just her fourth start and the horse that finished a neck in front of her in her latest won a $75K maiden claimer in her next start. Adding to her appeal is the sharp half-mile move at Palm Meadows April 6. ONE TOUGH ANGEL improved dramatically when she moved to turf and being a half-sister to 5-time route winner Limonte she could thrive going around two turns. The past five years Cibellis has a 13 percent strike rate and $2.34 ROI with turf runners going a mile or longer the first time. Angel should also get a cozy trip leaving from the inside post. SISTER DRAMA appears to be primed for her debut and the past five years Nicks has a $4.48 ROI with horses debuting on the turf in maiden claiming races. SISTER DRAMA’S only sib Overdramatic didn’t fire in her debut but she romped in a one-mile race on the lawn in her second start.

SEVENTH RACE

BAR DOWN apparently likes this surface and just missed in his latest at this level in is first start since being claimed by Wolfson. He could be sitting on a big effort in his second start following a short layoff and adding to his appeal are the strong jockey-trainer numbers showing. TOWN POLICY is coming off a huge race and if he can repeat it he’s the winner. He will have to deal with other speed, however, and he could bounce after posting his career-best Beyer Speed Figure. He has had a couple of sharp interim works, however, so nobody should be surprised if he’s the winner. BULL DOZER won’t mind the shape of the race and makes his first start for a trainer who has excellent numbers with claimed horses running back the first time.

EIGHTH RACE

PAY ANY PRICE towers over this field. He set a track record when he easily handled heavily favored $632K graded stakes winner Power Alert in the $75K Silks Run and either of his two previous races would easily win this. The only bad news is the short price he’s going to be. STARSHIP THOR won his last three and hasn’t been worse than second in his last seven starts. Hard to see him catching the top pick, but the other speed will be coming back to him and he could get up in time to round out the exacta. CHIA GHOST does his best running late and could spice up the exotics at what should be a decent price. STARSHIP WILDCAT is on top of his game right now and is capable of stalking. No surprise if he’s part of the exacta.

NINTH RACE

JUST FOOLIN AROUND just missed at this level in his first start for a Abreu who is off to a hot start at the meet. He was coming off a layoff and it is easy to imagine him taking a big step forward in his second start back. LEONARDO DA VINCI also just missed at this level in his latest and he had to steady during the early stages of the race. He saved a lot of ground before finishing full of run late. He could win this with the right kind of trip. PRINCE VINCENZO had to steady when LEONARDO DA VINCI took up early. He made a nice but belated move along the rail and didn’t get beat by that much. He’s been claimed out of his last three starts, so he’s popular, and the past five years his new trainer has a 13 percent strike rate with claimed horses running back the first it. It’s been a long time between wins, however, and he looks a lot better underneath than on top.

TENTH RACE

SOUTHERN N’ SASSY is a 19-time maiden but she was right there in her last three starts and may have caught the right field. She gets in light and could finally break through if she can avoid going wide on the first turn. PERFECT STATE finished behind the top pick in her last two but drew the rail and should get a better trip if she breaks alertly. She could be going in the wrong direction with diminishing Beyer Speed Figures, however. AMAZING AMELIA might be worth taking a stab at. She received some support when she debuted across town but might not have cared for the sloppy conditions. Blinkers come off and since 2015 her trainer has a 21 percent strike rate and $4.77 ROI with second-time starting maidens. Both of her sibs are winners but neither raced on grass.