ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 10, BURGAMEISTER

FIRST RACE

The opener is a tricky race to handicap - despite drawing just six entrants. That’s due to the fact that most of these are more experienced on surfaces other than dirt, specifically turf and Poly, and how they react to the change in surface is anyone’s guess. ART IMITATES LIFE acts like the most talented horse in the field based on form and speed figures, and though by a grass sire in Artie Schiller, perhaps he can handle the move to dirt based on some fast main-track works at Fair Grounds and Churchill. FLEETWAY is another untested on dirt, though bear in mind that six of his eight starts came at Woodbine, where he didn’t have the chance to run on it; speedy and should appreciate a cutback in distance for Maker and the Ramseys. YOUNG AMERICAN has the most attractive dirt form in the race, but lacks speed and starts, as published, as a first-time gelding; generally find the first-time gelding angle to be overbet.

SECOND RACE

4-1 shot BRITISH HUMOR has run second the last two times he has raced on dirt, and despite losing by 8 1/4 lengths last out, he posted the top last-race Beyer, a 69. RAREST QUALITY and ROUGH SEA are first timers from winning barns that can get them ready first out; prefer ‘QUALITY over ‘SEA as the former is a 3-yearold by win-early sire Elusive Quality, while the latter hasn’t made it to the races until age 4, though he has recorded a number of fast breezes.

THIRD RACE

First-time-for-a-tag starter A DIXIE TWISTER looms the class of this $40,000 N2L race after racing in maidens and allowance company; only beaten 4 1/2 lengths on dirt last out at Oaklawn in an entry-level allowance. BLAZE STAR is an honest performer on dirt, having run fourth or better in five straight main track races; best speed figure, a 68, came in the slop; her fast-track races haven’t been as quick. JOKASA has decent dirt form but has been managed most as a turf sprinter, and is probably in this spot because there are so few options for such types at Keeneland outside of stakes; third 8 times in 16 starts - so picking her third seems the apropos decision.

FOURTH RACE

Four-time starter WESSEX runs infrequently, but runs competitively every time she steps on the grass; stakes-placed and coming off a respectable fourth at Gulfstream. RES IPSA is another with a recent fourth at Gulfstream; she was too keen in her first start of the year and weakened late after a move on the second turn; reunited with Leparoux, who rode her to victory at Churchill last May the last time he was on her. GIADA VEGAS faces winners first the first time after whipping maidens at Fair Grounds in her sixth start; generally Gulfstream invaders tend to be the class on the grass at Keeneland, not those coming from New Orleans.

FIFTH RACE

BIG KICK has been a highly productive claim for $5,000 since last May, winning four of eight starts for his current connections; lost his last two but on grass; now back to his preferred surface on dirt. CAUSE I’M ALEX owns some of the highest Beyers and current dirt form in the race, but heads south from Aqueduct, and bear in mind that innertrack runners tend to underachieve relative to their odds when going south; in fairness to this one, he was fourth in the claiming Crown Iron Horse at Gulfstream in December. COPUS comes off two blowout victories over the Poly at Turfway, his first wins on a synthetic track. 10 of his 12 victories have come on dirt; expect him to maintain his edge.

SIXTH RACE

MOANA was beaten when second at first asking as the favorite at Tampa, but in a fast race by Tampa standards, and the start gave him a race around two turns; improves second out. HARKNESS seems to have been purchased privately

after three straight runner-up finishes, with two of those coming in routes at Fair Grounds this winter, but these private-purchase types often tend to underachieve at the betting windows in their first starts for their new connections. ANALYZE doesn’t seem as fast as the top two but has respectable form and nice bloodlines.

SEVENTH RACE

Late running SWEET TAPPER should move forward off a close fourth in her first start of the year at Gulfstream in a race that seemed a prep for the Keeneland meet; graded placed last year when third in the Mrs. Revere. INCHARGEOFME is another coming by way of Gulf, though she moves up in class after defeating maidens Jan. 11; didn’t work for two months after that victory - so the time away could result in some regression. ANTONOE was a Grade 3 winner in 2015 in France but had a dull year in 2014, and now seeks to regroup in the U.S. for trainer Chad Brown and owner Juddmonte Farm.

EIGHTH RACE

BIG RED ROCKET came up a little empty when fourth first time vs. allowance runners but now gets blinkers off and may improve with the equipment change. STARSHIP ZEUS is a late runner with a long history of runner-up finishes; bought privately after his latest at Gulfstream, and as noted in the analysis for the sixth race, such types tend to get bet down on the someone-knowssomething angle. STAR HILL is the most battle tested of these but is unraced since being vanned off after running last in the King’s Bishop last summer at Saratoga; long-layoff returnees are regular play against types in the win pool for this horseplayer, though this one could still get a piece.

NINTH RACE

A dynamite renewal of the Maker’s Mark Mile .... with plenty of pace in this race, looking for a horse to come from off the pace with success, and settled on 8-1 INSPECTOR LYNLEY, who just won a stake over the classy Kasaqui at Tampa Bay, albeit with a perfect stalking trip in which he saved ground for much of the race. BOLO won the Grade 2 Arcadia before finishing third in the Frank Kilroe mile against essentially the same bunch; sharp recent works in California. CALCULATOR won a comeback going down the hill at Santa Anita on grass after previously seeming a Grade 2ish type of sprinter on dirt in 2016; did win at this mile distance on dirt, not turf, as a younger horse.

TENTH RACE

Going with the second-time “International Good Thing” angle with 8-1 BURGAMEISTER in the nightcap...bet down to 9-2 in his debut off some fast works in a 10-horse field at Gulfstream, he ended up seventh after breaking from the rail. Now logically figures ndto benefit from that experience in his second race, and shows a fast half in 48 flat over the Keeneland surface leading into this. BORSA VENTO ran second to the subsequently privately purchased Lookin for Eight in a maiden race Jan. 28 at Gulfstream before disappointing with a fifth when stretched out to a route; back sprinting, what he does best. HIGHER FACTOR is a fast-working first timer by the Factor that appears to have talent; in light of fast drills, surprised to not see one of trainer Neil Howard’s usual go-to riders on this one; Miguel Mena, 0 for 2 riding for Howard in 2016-2016, is up.