ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

POSSE NEEDED debuted in a fast race at Saratoga in her only start as a 2yo, and she finished up with some interest after getting out-paced from the gate; starting back with an additional furlong to work with, and she appears to be training forwardly into her 3yo debut. HOLY HELENA making debut for a capable first out trainer, and she is eligible to be fast as a half-sister to the multiple stakes winning sprinter Holy Boss. STYLISH QUALITY has one race on her card that would make her hard for this field to beat, but that came back in 2015, and she has been beaten as an oddson favorite in both starts since; returning from a long layoff looking to prove that she can still run the kind of race she delivered on debut.

SECOND RACE

AWESOME ANTHONY has faced better in all three career starts on grass, including lone route over this course at the end of last year where he was bumped into a stumble at the start, before making a nice wide run around the turn and then flattening out a bit in the stretch; good spot for him to switch back without much other turf form signed on, and like that he showed a little speed in the most recent run on the main track. YUMMY BEAR the only entrant with turf form that would give him a chance, but he hasn’t run up to his best since claimed by these connections last summer; threat if he can rebound. GREENHOUSE EFFECT was off slowly from the gate and outrun early, but he was improving his position throughout two-turn debut on the inner, before drifting in greenly in the stretch; returns as a new gelding and moves to turf as a half to a pair of four-time winners on the grass in Downtown Hottie and Weather Girl. UNDERCOVER AGENT didn’t have the most comfortable trip in the world when pinned down inside behind a front-running winner last time, but he was outfinished for 2nd without any excuse; tries turf with a little pedigree, and should be forwardly-placed.

THIRD RACE

BUCKWELLSPENT cuts back to a better distance after contesting the pace and stopping vs. a better field over a muddy inner-track last month; ran well for this trainer two starts back when battling a pace that collapsed, and he is loose on the lead from the rail according to the TimeformUS Pace Projector. TREE SHAKER is going top need someone to challenge the pace early in order to have his best chance, but he is also turning back after racing evenly over a mile here six days ago, and he has run some races that would give him a chance at a price. METAL MAGIC the main threat to BUCKWELLSPENT with enough speed to keep up, but have to wonder where his form is right now after failing to make any kind of run into a good setup last time; that race was his first back from a long layoff, so perhaps he just needed one off the bench, as he clearly has better ones to get to.

FOURTH RACE

MR. MCFROSTY was a big price when winning GP debut clear over a one-turn mile, but he didn’t luck into that win after getting bumped between horses to wind up outrun early, before coming with a strong run along the rail through the turn and then overpowering the pace-setter in the stretch; tough spot in two-turn mile that featured a solid pace in NY debut. DON’T MAKE IT EASY ships in for capable trainer with decent dirt form out of town; didn’t love his effort over this distance at Parx last time, but he did get wired in that race, and he may be the right new face. PORT MORE didn’t run poorly vs. tougher off the claim two starts back, but he was disappointing on the class drop last time after keeping close to the winner on the early lead; tried again.

FIFTH RACE

PSYCHIC ENERGY appeared to need his debut when tiring at the end after a wide trip, and he simply couldn’t get to front-running Italian Syndicate last time; switches to grass with some pedigree as a

Freud half to three turf winners, from a dam who was multiple stakes placed on turf. CAPTAIN KITT has faced better in his turf start, and done well in some of them, particularly the first two which directly preceded a long layoff; has to prove that he can still run a little, but this is the right kind of spot for him to do it, and he will race as a gelding for the first time. EXCLUSIVE ZIP, like the top one, is also making turf and route debut for a very sharp trainer; he had no chance vs. that field last time, but did well to be 3rd at the end, and he is a full to two-time turf route winner Spence Girl. AUGIE’S COMING has much to overcome as he goes the mile from the rail in first start back from a layoff spanning nearly a full year, but he has run the three fastest races in this field, and he starts back for a trainer who is solid off of longer layoffs; hard to get too strongly behind him, but his speed should play (assuming he still has it) and the alternatives are hard to come by. CAN’TMAKETHISUP, at least, is lightly-raced and dropping in class after chasing a faster horse on the lead last time; game win on debut at GP, and he should be close to the pace from the outset. THAT MAKES SENSE not an alternative to take on top if you’re trying to beat the likely favorite, as his races just aren’t that good, and he hasn’t improved for Rudy; can get a piece.

SEVENTH RACE

MY IMPRESSION returned from the layoff in a tough spot over a tough distance, and she tired in the stretch after failing to make her presence felt in that race; steps back into a spot where she is supposed to be tough, especially if she can continue to build upon her solid 3yo form. Just about done chasing MY SWEET GIRL, but this is a realistic spot for mare who has run some races that would give her a serious look in this race, even if My Impression steps it back up; has uninspiring overall record, but there have been some tough trips along the way which cloud that picture a bit. BAR OF GOLD a talent, and one whose connections have long wanted to try her on grass (she is out of a dam who was a Grade 3 winner on turf), but she is still an unknown on this surface at what is likely to be a relatively short price, and it’s not like she lands in some kind of soft spot; defensive use, at most.

EIGHTH RACE

FIRST APPEAL was making a late run in Tampa debut when getting into some traffic and being forced to steady, which led to her just being allowed to finish up on her own for the last 1/16th or so; being offered up right away in NY not the best sign, as her connections likely know that they are losing her, but like that she has that debut out of the way in a race where I would otherwise side with firsters. SPLASHY RISE debuting for capable first-out trainer, and she is the first foal from her dam, who was a 12-time dirt sprint winner in her career. DREAMY MARGARITA has too much pedigree to be starting out for a tag as a half to Frosty Margarita, who is a multiple stakes winner for these connections, but she has been training right along for Rudy, who is excellent with first time starters. Rudy’s other entrant, JAZZY JUDER, raced very greenly after a slow start in her debut, and then got very tired in the stretch when beaten; took money in that race, but that have been more a function of her debuting in a short field without many other options.

NINTH RACE

WAR BOND looks to be dropping into the right spot here after facing competition that is way tougher than this right from the start; hard to go against at a short price. MASCARELLO a better horse on turf than he is on dirt, so expect him to start running some better races with the grass courses opening up; will find the top one a tough rival to get past. BUDDY’S TIZ an infrequent winner with a running style that often leaves him with too much to do, but he has some form to make himself a contender in this spot. 110th St. and Rockaway Blvd. Ozone Park, NY 11417 (718) 641-4700 NYRA Scratch Line: (866) 697-2238 Main track: One and one-eighth miles, oval. Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,155.5 feet. Inner track: One mile, oval Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,174.9 feet Turf course: Seven Furlongs, 43 feet, oval

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 16% ■ Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta, Grand Slam, Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 6 wagering (carryover pools): 24% ■ Pick 5 wagering: 15% ■ Pick 6 wagering (non-carryover pools): 15%