ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, NO DOZING

FIRST RACE

TAKE YOUR GUNS debuted with a distant third in a well-rated maiden race at Gulfstream that was won by Patch, who returned to finish second to Girvin in the Louisiana Derby; improvement expected second out and favorable draw on the rail with a short run to the first turn. COMBAT CONTROLLER owns the top last-race Beyer, an 80, earned with a runner—up finish at fair Grounds last out; steady improvement with each start. INSURGENT went too quickly to the first quarter when fresh off a layoff Mar. 18 and tired to fourth in the same race in which COMBAT CONTROLLER; had previously been second at Churchill and third in quality maiden races.

SECOND RACE

SWIFT ONE is wheeled back on short rest for Ward after a quality second vs. similar Apr. 9. Horses with starts over the track at the meet have historically done well at Keeneland. HELIODORO is a price horse to throw into the exotics underneath the top choice; just 1 for 16 but consistently posts decent Beyers and could rally for a minor award. NO PHONE JOE is among the classiest in the race, but has raced exclusively on turf over his three-race career, and being by grass sire More Than Ready, could regress with switch to dirt.

THIRD RACE

N1X allowances for older fillies are for the money “just turrible” races- as NBA legend and commentator Charles Barkley might say. The better fillies have long since cleared the condition, and others have been whisked off to be bred. So that said, therefore taking comebacking CURLIN KISSES, even though I am typically reluctant to take long-layoff types. At least she showed the talent to win at first asking last year before being laid up since; fast works for her return. AUDACIOUS ANGEL owns decent numbers and has a couple starts this year, but lacks speed and heads south from New York where she was recently fifth in a race far above-average for inner-track standards at Aqueduct. SUGAR CONE SUGAR CONE on the other hand heads north from Gulfstream, where she was getting outrun; won over this track way back in 2015.

FOURTH RACE

TASTEFUL, bet down to favoritism in her debut, finished second; ought to improve second out and shows some lively works leading into this. ROCKET GIRL was bounced around a little bit in her debut when sprinting on turf, a race in which she ran fifth, beaten 1 1/4 lengths, but a bunched field at the wire is typically indicative of a slow, belowaverage race; could certainly improve from that race; worked 48 and change at Churchill on dirt recently - so perhaps capable of handling the dirt. CONNECTED FITNESS debuts off a length series of drills, including two straight quick half-miles from the gate; acts like she has some talent.

FIFTH RACE

EASTPORT was a sharp second-out maiden graduate over eventual winner Donwell despite a wide run into the first turn at Gulfstream; promising colt drew positive reviews from clockers for a sharp half mile with a nice gallop out Apr. 9. UPPER ROOM is another that faces winners for the first time; graduated by 5 lengths last out but at Tampa, where the competition is easier than at Gulfstream. NICE NOT NICE is a three-time winner that is eligible for this race because his two post-maiden victories came in starter allowances; shifts from turf to dirt but seems capable of handling most any surface; bullet work Apr. 6 at Churchill.

SIXTH RACE

6-1 VICI ran well off a long layoff to be second at Tampa on the grass, earning a 91 Beyer; outworked his company in a sharp work here Apr. 9 with apparently plenty left in the tank. REVVED UP is dropped in class after an eighth in the Hollywood Derby Dec. 3; ran a close fourth the one time he raced in a second-level allowance, though in a 1 3/8-mile race at Aqueduct. AQUAPHOBIA got a needed comeback race when fourth at Tampa in an even effort Mar. 11; adds blinkers following that performance; was a minor stakes winner last year.

SEVENTH RACE

BIRD SONG is unproven going this distance but is at the top of his game and training well. The easy choice for trainer Ian Wilkes would have been to keep him running one turn - so he must be confident the horse can stretch out; finished well in his final work leading into this race. EAGLE is a good horse anywhere, but brings his game up a couple notches at Keeneland, where he is three for three; won this race last year over Noble Bird and Breaking Lucky. SCUBA is a long-distance specialist that is fast and consistent; still, this race sure gives the appearance of a prep for 1 1/2-mile races down the road.

EIGHTH RACE

TRIPLE CHELSEA is a value play at her 12-1 odds on the morning line; won a sprint stake at Tampa this winter before a third in a stake at Gulfstream after breaking a step or two slowly; should benefit from a little more ground on the stretch out from 5 to 5 1/2 furlongs. LADY AURELIA is the obvious class of the race, but is a comebacking 3-year-old filly facing older and her reputation is sure to make her a skimpy price. PRETTY PERFECTION traded decisions with TRIPLE CHELSEA this winter in Florida, losing to her at Tampa before beating her at Gulfstream. She adores the Gulfstream course, however, and could regress with the move to Keeneland.

NINTH RACE

NO DOZING, making his third start of the year, is battle tested, having raced in four consecutive graded stakes after winning his first two starts; fourth most recently in the Tampa Bay Derby while earning an 87 Beyer that is among the best lastrace figures in the Lexington. SENIOR INVESTMENT never threatened in the Louisiana Derby in finishing sixth but had previously been in sharp form; yet to run that quickly but seems like a pretty nice horse. WEST COAST has a second and a win in two starts but will be overbet as a 3-year-old trained by Bob Baffert; felt his last work wasn’t all that great despite a quick time, getting passed on the gallop out.

TENTH RACE

DICKINSON is a value alternative to classy comebacker LADY ELI. DICKINSON is much improved since last fall when moved to the grass, and she beat quality fillies such as Isabella’s Sing and Sandiva in recent graded stakes victories in Florida. Obviously Lady Eli is a special filly, a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner in 2014 that came within a nose of winning the Filly and Mare Turf last year. That noted, she has such a reputation that she will likely make her an underlaid price coming off the bench in this salty Grade 1. ILLUMINANT won the Grade 1 Gamely last year after a third in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley on this course when beaten by Tepin and Wekeela; sharp comeback in a small stake going down the hill as a prep for this start.

ELEVENTH RACE

SHEPLAYSTHEFIELD has run third in all three of her starts while beaten a combined 5 1/2 lengths; consistent miss looks ready to graduate from the maiden ranks. MAKEALITTLELOVE finished second in a fast dash for 2-year-old fillies almost a year ago, and though working quickly, still figures to be disadvantaged by all the time away. VIGOR chased the pace and faded to fourth when debuting in a 7 1/2-furlong race on the grass at Gulfstream; connections show confidence in her dirt ability by trying this main track race with this daughter of War Front.