ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, MIDNIGHT STORM

FIRST RACE

Oaklawn closes out its 2017 season with a blockbuster card of four stakes led by the Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby. The card also includes the Grade 2, $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap and the Grade 3, $400,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap. In the opener, STAR’S VALENTINO has an experience edge on a number of his rivals as an eight-time winner. BOALT HALL exits a pair of quick races. WELL MANNERED has faced off with some quality sprinters in the past. Another of interest is SKIP THE PINOT.

SECOND RACE

RING NECKED was a winner at this distance back in January. He has since advanced to the starter ranks and held his own, finishing a close up third last time going a mile. The move back to a mile and a sixteenth here would seem to serve him well. RAGE RIOT defeated a number of these last out, including top choice. LAMU has been flattered since his last start. The runner-up to him came back to capture a $7,500 starter allowance at OP with a Beyer Figure of 73, and the fourth-place finisher, Indy Awesome, a $7,500 claimer at OP, with a Beyer of 75.

THIRD RACE

MISHEGAS defeated a promising kind of runner two back in Secret Passage, and last out was fourth to Shotgun Kowboy, a multiple Grade 3 winner who turned in some powerful performances this meet at Oaklawn. The company lines make MISHEGAS appealing, as does his consistent form. FIRE STARTER was favored last out when a troubled second. ONE FINE DREAM is appealing as a sixtime stakes winner. He is stretching back out to two turns off a pair of sprint starts to launch his 4-year-old season.

FOURTH RACE

COUNTERFORCE was beaten just two lengths for everything last out in his first start since September. The race he exits went in good time, and the winner, Gordy Florida, is a quality kind of runner. Smith, who teams with Asmussen later on the card in the Count Fleet and Arkansas Derby, has the mount. TANNER’S POPSICLE has a chance to take these box to wire. ABBAA is the one to beat off back-to-back wins at Oaklawn. He also owns the field’s best last-race Beyer Figure.

FIFTH RACE

FOR GREATER GLORY needs pace to fuel his run and there’s a few in here that could make for some solid fractions. CONQUEST BIGLUCK E wins often, as a horse who is 5-for-11. He was a clear winner over similar last out at Oaklawn. ALL IDOIS DREAM OF YOU hooked a quality kind of winner last out, while the runner-up from the race is to go later on the card in the Oaklawn Handicap.

SIXTH RACE

OFF ROAD finished fourth in his debut to Girvin, who has since won the Louisiana Derby and is bound for the Kentucky Derby. ARCH CAT finished right behind top choice last time in a local maiden allowance and note the winner of that race runs later on the card in the Arkansas Derby. PITCH COUNT has an age edge on top two as he is 4. He also is from a Grade 3-winning mare who ran out $375K. CURMIT is a half-brother to Grade 2 winner Magnum ($835K).

SEVENTH RACE

WHITMORE has established himself as the dominant sprinter on the grounds this meet at Oaklawn, and despite some new faces looks like the one to beat in the Count Fleet. WHITMORE has raced twice at the meet and twice has won races in 1:08 and change, putting up back-to-back triple digit Beyer Speed Figures. He has a strong kick, and it appears he should get the right kind of setup as he seeks to win his fourth straight race. HOLY BOSS is proven class as a Grade 2 winner of more than $700K. He might be sitting on a peak race in his third start since November. MOE CANDY invades from Southern California, where he was Grade 2-placed last out in his stakes debut. He is a striking gray and seems like a promising sort for Sadler.

EIGHTH RACE

TOTAL TAP exits the Sunland Derby, which produced the recent Blue Grass winner Irap. In addition, the runner-up from the Sunland Derby, Conquest Mo Money, was to run later on the card in the Arkansas Derby. BALANDEEN faced leading Kentucky Derby candidates McCraken and Gunnevera last year at 2. WARRIOR’S CLUB was a smart winner over the local strip last time. Castellano was in town and aboard, and he again teams with this one for Hall of Famer Lukas.

NINTH RACE

MIDNIGHT STORM established himself as a top turf horse last year in Southern California, but has been quite effective on dirt, too, and looks like a strong favorite in this afternoon’s Oaklawn Handicap. He is shortening up some from the mile and a quarter Santa Anita Handicap, but still looks like he could control the pace on the turnback, based on the speed he’s shown both sprinting and at various route distances. MADEFROMLUCKY might get an ideal tracking trip off top choice, and is returning to a distance over which he is a multiple Grade 2 winner. DOMAIN’S RAP was second last out in the Essex Handicap, an Oaklawn race captured by Grade 1 winner Mor Spirit. Mor Spirit covered the mile and a sixteenth distance in a quick 1:41.60. DOMAIN’S RAP is a horse-for-course with a 5-for-9 record at Oaklawn. TEXAS CHROME makes his first start since the Breeders’ Cup and both of his Grade 3 wins last year came at the mile and an eighth distance of the Oaklawn.

TENTH RACE

LONG STATION has a powerful closing kick, while TWENTY AND FOUR and CHILANGO fit well in this spot.

ELEVENTH RACE

The Arkansas Derby drew a diverse field that includes CLASSIC EMPIRE, the champion 2-yearold male of 2016 making his second start of the year, MALAGACY, an undefeated horse looking to keep conquering more distance, and CONQUEST MO MONEY, who invades from New Mexico off a runner-up finish in the Grade 3, $800K Sunland Derby. CLASSIC EMPIRE finished a distant third in his seasonal debut in the Holy Bull, but in the days following the race was found to have a right front foot abscess, according to his trainer, Mark Casse. CLASSIC EMPIRE has natural speed, which could help keep him up out of trouble in this afternoon’s large field. He also might get an ideal tracking trip off the rail-drawn ROCKIN RUDY, who is stretching out to two turns for the first time. MALAGACY must overcome the widest gate, but like top choice is blessed with natural speed. He has recency on that one, and a significant win over the local strip, in the Grade 2, $900K Rebel. MALAGACY could get a nice stalking trip, too. UNTRAPPED has been knocking on the door in preps between Fair Grounds and Oaklawn and for this trip will add blinkers. UNTRAPPED brings good two-turn experience to the table. CONQUEST MO MONEY saw his form get a nice spike earlier this month when Irap, a horse he defeated in the Mine That Bird Derby and finished in front of in the Sunland Derby, came back to capture the Blue Grass at Keeneland. LOOKIN AT LEE and SILVER DUST are runners that should benefit from the added distance they pick up in this spot, according to their respective trainers, Asmussen and Morse.

TWELFTH RACE

These go a marathon distance of a mile and threequarters to wrap up the meet at Oaklawn. MOJO STREET is out to turn the tables on HUSKY CLIPPER. The pair finished a neck apart last time going a mile and a half and perhaps the added ground here will be a benefit to MOJO STREET. He’s also appealing as one who has won three of his last four starts. HUSKY CLIPPER defeated a handful of these in the race last time. FAR OUT KAILEE gets pedigree support for more ground as a son of Summer Bird. Goodnight, Oaklawn.