ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, CHAMPAGNE CHARLEY

FIRST RACE

ST. RENO finds himself in a more advantageous spot here, and he looks to be the controlling speed in the race. Breaking from post two, look for Santiago Gonzalez to send this John Sadler trainee to the front, attempting to wire the field. MAGIC TASTE can sit closer to the pace than he has in his past few races; if he’s able to maintain a stalking position, he has a chance to do what he does best: round out exotic wagers. FOOLISH TO DECEIVE cuts back in distance and switches from turf to dirt for trainer Mike Mudaris; he owns the highest last out Beyer Speed Figure in the field (73) and figures to be running on from a mid-pack position.

SECOND RACE

A fair amount of pace appears to be signed on, and that should set things up beautifully for CHAMPAGNE CHARLEY breaking from the far outside. Champagne Charley had a wonderful trip in his most recent score on March 5, and today he makes his second start off the bench for trainer Simon Callaghan. If the pace develops the way it should, he will likely work out another fantastic trip. ROYAL ALBERT HALL was a bit unlucky not to win at Santa Anita on January 2, as he was stuck in behind runners throughout the stretch drive. The knock against him is his lifetime record (23-2-6-7) and the fact that he likely wants more distance than this mile trip. KENJISSTORM looked as though he was going to win for fun in his most recent try, only to be turned away by a gutsy pacesetter to his inside. The turn-back to a mile should do him a world of good.

THIRD RACE

BASIE BOOTS gets a double drop in class, going from open $25,000 claimers to conditioned nonwinners-of-three-lifetime $16,000 claimers. The class relief alone could be enough to put this daughter of Lucky Pulpit over the top for Gary Sherlock and Joe Talamo. She has enough speed to make the front if the connections desire, or they have the option of sitting off the speed drawn on the rail and taking over as the field turns for home. The speed on the rail is FORTHENINETEEN, a filly that broke through the N2L level in gate-to-wire fashion recently on March 24. If she’s able to shake clear from the inside, she could get brave. COMEALONGWITHME returns to her preferred surface of dirt in her second start off the layoff for Neil French. She’s a perfect two-for-two at the seven-furlong distance and should work out a nice stalking trip.

FOURTH RACE

LORD SIMBA broke his maiden most recently in blowout fashion, scoring by eight lengths on March 19. The 97 Beyer Speed Figure he earned that day certainly makes him a contender, and if you believe he’ll move forward in his second start off the bench for Baffert, he could be a handful. KENTUCKIAN was confidently handled throughout in his victory on February 20, winning by a measured neck going six furlongs. Breaking from the inside post does him no favors, but it’s nice to know he’s capable of winning when on the lead or sitting just off the pace. GRAZEN SKY hasn’t raced at a distance this short since March of 2015. He’s a perfect two-for-two at the six-furlong distance and should benefit from an honest pace up front.

FIFTH RACE

GONZO appears to slowly be figuring the racing game out, and a forward move in his second start off the layoff would make him a prime contender. There looks to be a fair amount of early speed signed on, so it’s to be expected that this son of Munnings will be coming from off the pace. CUT plummets in his first start since being claimed by

Eddie Truman, and he’s strictly the horse to beat from a speed figure standpoint. JUNE SIXTH was no match for the likes of Kimbear and Sonneteer on February 25; he drops from maiden special weight company to maiden claiming and could be a major pace player in this heat.

SIXTH RACE

In a race loaded with gate speed, it’s nice to know that INFORMALITY has shown an ability to relax off the pace and still make a winning move. This could be a classic case of dirtied up form for this four-year-old colt; draw a line through his most recent start going down-the-hill, as well as a line through his two-turn effort two starts back. If you do, you’re left with a maiden score at this distance by more than five lengths. HITTERS PARK earned a gaudy 88 Beyer Speed Figure when breaking his maiden most recently, but that figure is far and away the fastest of his career. If he runs back to the 88 he’ll be very tough to beat. GIGANTIS was impressive breaking his maiden off a long layoff for Bruce Headley on March 19; the other early zip signed on here could compromise his chances unless he’s able to clear off from the inside.

SEVENTH RACE

PACIFIC HEAT is stuck on the also-eligible list, but if she draws in she’s likely the horse to beat. A multiple stakes winner for Peter Eurton, this filly has done little wrong in her racing career; her early speed always makes her a threat, and it translates regardless of racing surface. The obvious concern is the year-long layoff, however Eurton has had success with these types in the past. If she gets in, she’s dangerous. SWEET DRAGON FLY owns the highest last out Beyer (81) and ran a credible third behind what looks to be a legitimate mare in September Stars. Her tactical speed allows Martin Pedroza to play off the other runners in the field, and that’s a key advantage. LUCY DE is an honest filly that usually gives you what she has; sometimes it’s good enough to win, sometimes it’s not. She fits beautifully from a speed figure standpoint and must be considered if playing exotics.

EIGHTH RACE

Peter Miller has historically done well debuting runners in maiden claiming races, and SUTTON IMPACT fits that mold. In a race that doesn’t feature much as far as proven commodities are concerned, this son of Tizway rates as good a chance as any to break his maiden at first asking. DREAMS OF VALOR took some money in a maiden special weight affair on March 25 before racing wide throughout and finishing evenly down the lane. With a start under his belt, a forward move wouldn’t be a surprise. Mark Glatt may not be a prolific trainer as far as first-time starters are concerned; however, he has done well with firsters debuting in maiden claiming races on dirt over the past few years. WALDORF is an interesting new shooter to consider at a decent price.

NINTH RACE

MOMENTS NOTIZ makes his first start for trainer Peter Miller, and Miller has outstanding numbers with these types over the past four years (First After Claimed By, under $10K Claiming: 6-for10, $3.54 ROI). This nine-year-old gelding loves winning races, and if anyone is going to get him back to the winner’s circle, it’s Miller. MADELYN’S WILD MAX was narrowly defeated most recently in a four-way photo finish on March 5; today he gets class relief and figures to feature prominently throughout. It’s been a long time between drinks for ANKENY HILL, and while dirt may not be his preferred surface, his speed does play. He may not be the likeliest of winners, but he may be able to hang around late to get a piece.

TENTH RACE

Unless one of the first-time starters flashes early foot, there doesn’t appear to be a ton of pace featured in Saturday’s nightcap. INSUBORDINATION set a legitimate pace in his first start in over a year before understandably tiring down the lane. With a start under his belt he should move forward. THERMOPOLIS exits a particularly weak maiden special weight race on March 11, but he has every right to take a step forward in his second lifetime