ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, TRIBAL DUDE

FIRST RACE

TRIBAL DUDE is at the top of his game right now as he steps up a notch after a solid win against a strong field. His stalking style always has him in contention. He likes this track and loves this distance. Look for him in the lane. PETE’S SLEW was the runner-up to the top pick last time. He’s another hard hitter, stepping up off a claim. He’s been part of the exacta in his past four starts, including a pair of wins. He has enjoyed even more success here than the top pick and will be trying to hold him off here. ATTA’ BOY WOODY has hit the board in his past three starts when running at this level. He returned here last time but was forced to run wide and didn’t have much left in the lane while meeting better.

SECOND RACE

TOP PIRANA is getting a significant drop here. He’s been running consistently but is coming off his poorest effort of the year when returning from a six-week freshener when he bobbled at the break. Expect an improved try MAL VERDE steps up a notch after a nice win. It was his second win of the year, the first coming at the expense of the top pick. Note that in his last start for this tag when he stepped up a notch after another nice win. Look for him in the lane. ADMINISTER is a solid sprinter who is adding blinkers for the first time in some time. Like his stablemate, the second choice, he has scored five victories here.

THIRD RACE

KRONWALL has won three straight, including a race against similar as the 2-to-5 favorite in his last start. He’s stretching out an extra half furlong here, and he’s never won at this distance. Despite the low level, this will be a tough heat, and he won’t get the lead here. He has shown in the past that he can stalk so look for him to sit just off MIDNIGHT RAMBLER, who drawn outside him. The Rambler has won four of his past five starts and was odds-on at twice this level in that other race where he ran third. PREACHER’S BLUFF has been part of the exacta in his past three starts at this level, including a win at this distance. Veteran could prove tough in the lane with what could be a heated pace in front of him.

FOURTH RACE

LITTLE MUSTARD was running at the bottom maiden claiming level down south and ran third when he came north for his last start. He also ran at the bottom level here, finishing third after rallying wide as the even-money favorite. Now he’s at the bargain-basement level as he shortens up. Look for him in the lane. CALL CODE RED missed by a head as he failed to hold in the lane at this level two races back. Ran third against similar again last time but was double-digit lengths behind a runaway winner. Won’t face anyone as tough today. PLAI KAEW makes his debut for barn that does well with first-timers. He’s by a decent win-early sire and has been working steadily since his arrival here after beginning his works down south.

FIFTH RACE

WARRENS GOLDNUGGET continues to move up the class ladder as she seeks her third straight win. She’s moving back to the turf, but she has always run well on the turf here where she has scored all three of her career turf victories. She started her win streak at the bottom level and was claimed. She stepped up and won again and was re-claimed. She’s sharp and could offer a bit of value here. DAME STREET makes her turf debut here as she drops a notch following a disappointed try as the favorite. She beat better when running on the turf in Tampa and will appreciate the return to the surface. She has run all right on the main track here, but she’s better on turf. FRENCH TART is at her best at this distance. She scored her lone turf victory at this distance and has the board in six of seven starts. She is capable of getting the lead and should use her speed to good advantage from the rail.

I’M PASSING YA NOW drops into the claiming ranks for the first time, and a major drop it is after a disappointing effort last time. That disappointing effort is still better than any of her rivals have run so it’s hard to picture her offering much value here. Her earlier efforts would horrify these. SILVER APPLES comes north for the first time. She routed and stopped badly at the bottom level for Socal runners last time, but her fractions were decent. She’s probably best when sprinting, and this should be a nice spot for her. CUP OF KAFFY adds blinkers after running third at this level in her debut. She’s by a good win-early sire, and all three siblings are winners.

SEVENTH RACE

RIDEO ran third at this level two back. He dropped to the bargain-basement level last time and responded as a 2-to-5 shot should with a solid victory. He seems to like this track. He’s another that has run well against better in the past and looks tough to beat in this spot if he simply matches his last effort . He’s been off six weeks but has three decent maintenance drills in the interim. AND THEN SOME is getting a major drop here in his second start for this barn. He ran evenly last time after getting off a bit slowly from the rail. He didn’t really threaten but did finish evenly. The drop is the key. TED OLIVER is a consistent check earner. He’s dropping a notch after hanging late last time when he ran third. He has enjoyed success here in the past and is all right against lower level foes.

EIGHTH RACE

TIZFIT is gunning for a hat trick here as she doubles her claiming price. She’s run well against better in the past so the boost up the ladder is not a major concern. We’ll look at the two victories as confidence-building winners for a runner who has scored all her career victories here. OUR CLEMENTINE has yet to win here but has hit the board in three of five starts. She was claimed for this tag two back and routed unsuccessfully against better last time. She’s back at her best game here. A repeat of her recent sprints makes her a legitimate contender. PROPHETINPARADISE makes her third start following an eight-month layoff. She showed improvement in her second start going way too fast year when she was six in front at the first call and faded in the stretch. With her speed, she should be able to get the jump on the top pick who is drawn inside her, but she will have to improve to hold the top pair off.

NINTH RACE

LAST MINUTE regressed last time after running second in three straight starts at this distance. She did tire after not making the lead, but we’re willing to overlook that effort. She runs better on the lead, and there’s some question if she can get the lead here, but her recent success at the distance makes her worth another look since she’ll likely offer some value. BELLE’S COMMAND is a consistent check earner. She beat the top pick last time after chasing her in their previous two meetings. She’ll get another nice stalking trip here. SLIGHTLY has hit the board in both career starts, sprinting in her debut and then losing a photo as the odds-on pick at this distance in her second start. She seems capable of getting the lead here and seems capable of improvement.