ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, EPPING FOREST

FIRST RACE

CLEAR N CONVINCING was unprepared for the start and away slowly in debut over a GP track that was favoring speed on 2/18, before just racing on through the stretch in a race that has turned out to be okay, so far; well-bred colt can build upon that effort here from nice outside post. MYAKKA RIVER lacked speed and raced a bit greenly on debut, then just got outrun over a track that was kind to speed when shipped to NY on the Wood Memorial undercard; blinkers on for Shug, and he may actually wind up being a fair price this time. THEBIGFUNDAMENTAL the one to beat at likely short price, and maybe it’s just that simple; did get squeezed out at the start of well-bet debut, but he otherwise had a decent trip in that race, and a fair shot at it once taking over the lead, but was never really a match for Street Jersey, who was making his first start back from a very long layoff.

SECOND RACE

Won’t advocate too hard for SARATOGA MISCHIEF, who is taking the plunge after failing to pan out for Pletcher, but there is no one I would be interested in betting on in this field, and he did have a bit of an excuse in that first start back from the long layoff, before just giving way readily vs. much better horses last time. SET THE TRAPPE has run a few figures that suggest he is a prime contender here, and do like his early speed, as he returns to NY for the first time since the Hopeful as a 2yo; claimed out of weak effort at Oaklawn by highpercentage trainer trying NY for the first time. OPEN BAR ma have needed that first one back when outrun early before improving his position late, and he came through last time after getting into a good trip close to a modest pace; picks up top rider for an excellent trainer, though Servis is just 4 for his last 31 (13%) with last out maiden winners in dirt sprints ($0.66 ROI).

THIRD RACE

Maiden win for MR. DOUGIE FRESH two starts back may be a bit underrated, as he did well in that spot to keep pace-setting Outplay in his sights all the way, and then managed to stay with that rival as he picked up the pace on the backstretch, before gamely prevailing after a long duel; no chance with the impressive Timeline in the slop last time. MINERALOGY has to get a mile, but he was an easy winner after clearing the front over seven-eighths on that Wood undercard last time; tough race to evaluate over that track, which was kind to speed, especially with first time starters finishing 2nd and 3rd, but this horse has run well in all three career starts, and he may be able to get a clear early lead once again. HEMSWORTH earned the top figure in the field for win in the Grade 2 Nashua as a 2yo, but he has so much go right for him in that race that it’s tempting to ignore it completely and just judge him based on his other starts, which make him a marginal contender; forget the Mucho Macho Man, as something clearly went wrong there.

FOURTH RACE

REVIVE AND RESURGE ran a winning race in second career start when making the first run into a good pace that ultimately gave way, only to get closed down right on the wire, and he has raced sparingly since then, with his only two starts separated by a long layoff, including that last one when appearing to be getting a race in while rating back to last right from the start and never making a move; tough post and inexperienced rider won’t necessarily help, but he will be a price in a wide open race, and he is one of the few in here with a representative effort on grass. BOB contested the pace in GP debut before proving to be no match for the favored winner and then just prevailing for second-best; that effort was fine, and he can improve with it behind him, but that also looked like a very weak field, and he’s a short price in here. WONDERMEISTER has raced greenly in both main track starts at the MSW level; drops for the first time, and should handle the surface switch as a half to Baffle Me, a multiple stakes winner on turf in her career.