ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, ROCKY TOUGH

FIRST RACE

With rain in the forecast for Friday night and into Saturday, the meet’s opener, a $50,000 claimer for 3-year-olds, stands a reasonable chance of getting moved from turf to dirt. That scenario would benefit ROCKY TOUGH, who is 2 for 4 this year racing on dirt at Oaklawn and comes off a fast win in a starter there; also a winner on a muddy track. DURANGO DAN looks tough if this race stays on the grass, having just ran a wide fifth on the grass in an allowance at Keeneland Apr. 8. MIDNIGHT OAK has performed well since getting moved to the turf, with a second, a victory in maiden claimers and a fourth in an optional claimer; winning but heavily bet trainer/jockey combo.

SECOND RACE

FOREVER FARA blew away maiden claimers when dropped from maiden special weight company at Oaklawn Apr. 12, earning a career-best 59 Beyer Speed Figure; ran well over this surface earlier in her career with a debut second last year. HEARTBREAK HILL was a distant second behind a nextout winner at Keeneland earlier this month, but as a deep closer that is 1 for 13; might be better used underneath in the gimmicks; poor efforts in two prior starts at Churchill. VICTORY’S SECRET is among the classiest in this field, but could be disadvantage by not having raced this year; first or second in all three of her Churchill races in 2016.

THIRD RACE

BINGO KITTEN had a productive winter at Gulfstream in conditioned claimers, and is well suited to this $30,000 N3L spot; likely to run these down if this race stays on the grass, and would seem a likely horse to scratch in an off-the-turf scenario. ATTRACTION didn’t perform to expectations in fading to seventh most recently at Fair Grounds but had previously run well on the lawn there; a versatile horse, he can handle both turf and dirt and has shown a particular fondness for the Churchill main track; also has a 405 wet-track Tomlinson rating. Main-track only entrant US S ALTAIR is returned to the conditioned claiming ranks after failing to keep pace with optional claimers when kicking off his year at Fair Grounds; overall dirt form is solid, though he has gone unplaced in two local maintrack starts, including once in the mud last fall.

FOURTH RACE

FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM should roll if fit. She is five for six sprinting, with her only defeat beating a second in the Grade 1 La Brea when traveling to California for her last start late last year; fast recent works but a notable gap in her worktab from Feb. 2 to Mar. 24. Late-running ATHENA won a pair of races at Oaklawn in January before taking a break and returning with a third in the Carousel Apr. 8; 4 for 9 on the main track here. KATHBALLU is a solid main-track performer who won the Spring Fever with a difficult inside-battling trip Mar. 4 before finishing fifth in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland; connections took a shot in the latter race but she wasn’t up to that standard.

FIFTH RACE

BIPARTISAN owns the top last-race Beyer, a 71, and has the tactical speed to get a favorable trip in a large field in which some of the late runners could run into traffic; 17-5-3-1 on dirt, though unplaced in one start on a wet track. SKY ALEGOLD HAWKd in a starter marathon Apr. 15 at Oaklawn, never getting close, but won a claimer three back and looks like one of the classiest in this lineup; closing style results in him being placed behind the top

choice. STAR DOG is another that ran horribly last out due to a combination of reasons (barn switch, step up into a starter, and blinkers on); now the shades come off, and he is returned to a claimer, though his outside post puts him at risk for a wide trip; note he is 5-0-0-1 on wet tracks.

SIXTH RACE

PITCH COUNT is dropped into a maiden $50,000 claimer after competitive efforts in straight maiden company; can hang in his races, but is well spotted and should sit a good stalking trip along the inside. ROUSTABOUT fell a nose short of victory in a blanket finish at this class level at Keeneland earlier this month, and gets his blinkers removed in an effort to try to get him over the maiden hump. PLEASANT EMPIRE is, like the top choice, a maiden special weight dropper, though in his case a horse that has never seen a tag in his life; lone in-the-money finish came on turf, not on dirt, but he was fourth in a fast dirt race at Fair Grounds that was one by the now graded placed Local Hero.

SEVENTH RACE

CURLINO joins a winning claiming stable and enters this race with sharp recent form, albeit established on grass; still, he acts fully capable of transferring that form to dirt, a surface over which he has recorded two of his three victories; also a local winner. TWIRLING CINNAMON drops in for his cheapest tag and has the tactical speed to sit a good trip just off the pacesetters. MY BROTHER DON has struggled recently but has back class and early speed, and could move forward with blinkers removed.

EIGHTH RACE

SWEET INVENTION, on the board in all four starts and coming off three consecutive runner-up finishes, has an experience and speed-figure edge over her rivals. SHAR RAN and MISS KENTUCKY, a pair of second-time starters coming here by way of Florida, both have a license to improve tonight; the former was third in a quality maiden field at Gulfstream, while the latter flashed speed there before tiring to sixth.

NINTH RACE

SYNDERGAARD is the speed and class of the William Walker and seems to have the necessary foundation of training beneath him to set him up for a winning 3-year-old debut. CONQUEST WILDCAT is an honest sort that comes off a second a swiftly-run stake sprint at Oaklawn - plus he is proven over the Churchill strip. THE MONEY

MONSTER was pulled up in the Tampa Bay Derby after winning his first two starts and being bought privately; has fired three bullet or near-bullet works since.

TENTH RACE

RESTLESS RAMBLER always has shown speed in the U.S., but he has really carried it a lot more effectively since last fall; probably a little better suited to running shorter than 6 furlongs, but he did win at this distance here last fall. AZTEC LION and TURN BACK TIME are a duo of Maggi Mossowned runners and therefore are coupled, though they are with different trainers; the former seems to have the better chance of the to, coming off a productive winter at Fair Grounds for trainer Tom Amoss. ‘TIME, meanwhile, comes here from Oaklawn, where he was second first off the claim for $10,000 for trainer Chris Richard, a former Amoss assistant.

ELEVENTH RACE

ABBOCCATO gets a narrow edge in a bottom-level maiden claimer, the kind of race in which just about anything can happen; on the board in his first two races after slow starts at Fair Grounds before a wide fifth in a fast race at Oaklawn Apr. 12. CHOCOLATE BOUQUET, often trouble at the gate, moved up on grass with some competitive efforts in maiden $25,000 company this winter at Fair Grounds; now she switches back to dirt, a surface on which she was sixth of eight in her only start at Fair Grounds; bear in mind that race came in her debut, when inexperience may have contributed to the rear-half finish. ENDLESS THYME has shown speed and faded in shorter races this year but perhaps can get brave if able to clear and set softer splits in this seven-furlong contest; blinkers come off.