ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, BIG HANDSOME

FIRST RACE

DIVERSIFY lost his undefeated mark in the Stymie, but he didn’t run poorly in that race after making a strong pace all the way in a race that ultimately went to the closers; impressed in winning his first four starts, and he looks like the best speed as he cuts back a bit around one-turn. RALLY CRY hasn’t panned out so far, but he has run better than it looks in a couple of his losses, including his first two starts following his maiden win where he took the worst of the trips both times; couldn’t catch a loose-on-the-lead Bluegrass Singer in his return from the layoff, but he may be a bit tighter now, and he should be within range throughout. TESTOSTERSTONE received a great trip and ride to win the Mr. Sinatra with a competitive figure in the mud last time, but that was just another in a series of good races from this horse since he was claimed at the end of last year; this is tougher, but he is going good right now.

SECOND RACE

PIMM’S CUP seems one who may turn out to be the default position for anyone seeking an alternative to likely favorite MISSION TRIP, but this may be a race to take that position, and PIMM’S CUP got off very poorly in that Saratoga debut last summer, before making a run to catch up and then getting tired while racing greenly in the stretch; can build on it as he drops in class as a new gelding and with Lasix on for first start back. MISSION TRIP has run okay if first two starts at this level, and okay may wind up being good enough this time; horse to beat as likely short price. MARRIED TO ANYA landed in a couple of tough races to begin his career, then dropped down last time and got out-paced to the lead in a race that was dominated up front; drops again and will race as a new gelding this time.

THIRD RACE

BIG HANDSOME took money in his first couple of starts as a 2yo, and ran pretty well in those races without winning either one, but he has a turf pedigree and he appeared to really improve with the switch last time; not sure that he was beating all that much, but he did so convincingly, and he earned a figure for that effort which suggests that he will be tough right back. UNDULATED came with a nice run through some traffic to win his debut sprinting on turf, and he came back to take a tough beat after dueling down an odds-on favorite in the LRL Futurity; back to turf for 3yo debut. HAVE ANOTHER back to turf after showing some flashes as a closing sprinter on the main track, and his running style may ultimately wind up being better suited to this surface; has plenty of pedigree on the dam-side, but the Stay Thirsty’s have been woeful on the grass, so far.

FOURTH RACE

AMBER MORNING has displayed a pretty good kick sprinting on grass, including a last-to-first win over allowance rivals here a couple of summers ago before missing time; steadied out badly at the start before rallying some late in her return from that long layoff here last October, and she has likely been awaiting turf sprint season since trying to stretch out in he last start of 2016. MAGSAMELIA seems the horse to beat as she makes her first start back over her favorite course and distance with a trainer change; had back-to-back perfect trips when winning her final two turf sprints last year, but she also showed a new dimension in those races in winning without the lead. SUMMER HOUSE seems equally adept on either surface, and this race represents some pretty significant class relief for her on turf; has speed and has recency on several of her rivals here.

FIFTH RACE

We’ll see what firster NEW MOON can do in a race that features a couple of logical runners with experience, but he appears to be training well into his first start, and while his dam hasn’t dropped much of interest to this point, she was a Grade 1 winner on the track, and I wonder if this might not be a good spot for any firster with a bit of talent. WAGE ACCELERATION failed as a very heavy favorite on

debut for top connections, but he looked like a horse who may have needed a start, as he was late to kick in before gaining some late ground behind a horse who came back to run well again vs. winners; pedigree suggests longer is better. Moe interested in THADDEUS if he goes it without entrymate ARMY MULE, but he actually made a bit of a run after missing the break over a mess of a track (the remainder of that 8/13 card was cancelled following his debut) first time out; returns as a new gelding with a trainer change. PEACE SPEAKER was also heavily backed for his first start, but he lacked speed and only managed a mild late rally when finishing a no-threat 3rd with blinkers on; can do better with that one out of the way.

SIXTH RACE

ARAGONITE has yet to try sprinting on grass, but he is a better horse going shorter on the main track, and this looks like the right kind of spot to try the shorter distance; not much pace signed on to this field, but he shouldn’t be compromised, as he can keep close if need be. GRAND SKY clearly prefers sprinting on turf, and he can benefit from the move back to NY where he can avoid the 5-furlong sprints they run at GP; closer needs a little pace, but he is back at the right level here. WEST HILLS GIANT hardly reliable as a win candidate, having not actually hit the wire first since June of 2013 (he got a win via DQ shortly after that), but he is getting significant class relief for this, and he handles grass. DR. SHANE one of the few with some speed in this field, and he has actually run pretty well on dirt lately without winning; has some turf in his pedigree.

SEVENTH RACE

MAMA JOYCE upset a field on the front-end off the Contessa claim last December, then had just enough after a pair of good trips to win each of her next two starts as well; tried a bit tougher when re-claimed for her most recent start, and she ran well again after losing some position while in traffic; has to stretch out, but she has won over the mile before. LITTLEMISSBUSINESS was in a tough spot when chasing a sharp speed while at a tough level for her two starts back, and she actually finished gamely to just miss 3rd over that muddy track last time; drops in class with positional speed, and she also gets the mile. MARIA GOT EVEN has gotten in over her head in two of three starts since arriving from Panama with a prolific record, but she was easily best the one time she was more conservatively spotted, even if she did have a great trip off a pressure-packed pace that day.

EIGHTH RACE

FAIR POINT is off the layoff, but she was on a good run when last seen, culminating in convincing Grade 3 win on the Breeders’ Cup undercard down the hill; traded decisions with MISS ELLA prior to shipping out there, but thought FAIR POINT may have run the better race both times. MISS ELLA has been something of a frustrating follow, but she is pretty good in her own right, and she kept it close with the top one in their two meetings last year; two turf sprints at Belmont last year weren’t close to her best, though they were at seven furlongs. HIP HOP N JAZZ an interesting horse in this race, as she does have some ability, and she has looked good in all three turf starts for a top trainer; has to turn back, but she has sprinted effectively on the main track, and she has some speed.

NINTH RACE

FOCUS GROUP a threat if getting in to make his 3yo debut off the layoff; debut run at Saratoga behind Oscar Performance was deceptively good after a wide trip. Otherwise, HOMEWOOD FIELD landed the right trip, but he ran into what appears to be a pretty good horse and just failed to catch in his turf debut last month; faces some interesting first time starters here, and breaks from a very tricky post for the distance on the Widener (post 1 past two spring/summer meets at 1 1/16: 2 for 78), but his edge in experience helps. ADMIRALS COVE one of those interesting firsters as a half to four turf winners from a dam who was graded stakes placed on grass in her career; debuts for underrated trainer. CRIME LAB will attract more attention considering connections, but he also has big pedigree on his side (half to Inspector Lynley from a dam who won multiple graded stakes on turf); we’ll see if he needs one for trainer who doesn’t concern himself with immediate success.