ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, FANCY KITTEN

FIRST RACE

SHACKLEFORDS STORM has the best speed in the field and may have needed his latest at Tampa where he was in the mix early before fading. He is also dropping into an easier spot and could be gone if he breaks on top., SAILER’S COMPANION flopped as the chalk at this level last Sunday but he may not have cared for the sloppy conditions and could make amends if it stays dry. He was claimed out of the race and since 2015 his new trainer has a 9 percent strike rate with claimed horses running back the first time. RED COTTON could wake up in his second start back with the blinkers going on.

SECOND RACE

SPURS N BOWS ran like a horse that needed a race in a similar spot April 15 and should move forward with a race behind him. He also gets off the rail and since 2013 his new trainer has a 29 percent strike rate with claimed horses running back the first time. ARCHIVERO took a while to break through but he owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and the horse that finished third in his maiden win romped in his next start in a $12.5K maiden claimer. CADDY CAT won’t mind getting back on dirt and there isn’t a lot of pure speed in the field so he could take them a long way if he can clear early.

THIRD RACE

IRISH STAR didn’t fire as the 4-5 chalk when she dropped to this level last time but she’s had back a couple of decent works and could make amends in her first start for Navarro. She is also a half-sister to two-time route winner Spontaneity so maybe this is what she wants to do. 18-time maiden ADIOS CHIC owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and is an obvious contender coming off a runner-up finish at this level at a slightly shorter distance. HOPEFUL ANGEL drops to a new low and shouldn’t mind the move back to dirt following a dull effort on grass.

FOURTH RACE

GRAN IDENTIDAD looked good winning his latest, should get a nice trip from a forward position, and looks capable of handling the move into open company. WILDCAT KITTEN fits a lot better here than he did in his last two and either of his last two races at this level across town put him in the mix. HY QUALITY PRINCE easily owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and if he can put up the same number coming back this quickly he’s the winner. That seems like a big if and he was probably aided by the wet surface. FENERBAHCE should appreciate the slightly shorter distance after coming up short when he was favored going a sixteenth longer at this level April 6.

FIFTH RACE

FANCY KITTEN stands out among the ones that have started and will appreciate being back with maidens following a decent effort in the $100K Sanibel Island where she only lost by two lengths. The first and third-place finishers in her previous race earned 77 and 85 Beyer Speed Figures for their wins in their next starts. RESONATE is by an excellent debut sire who has solid numbers with turf runners. She is also the first foal out of a turf winner so she should handle the surface and she comes out of a barn that can have them ready to roll first time. RAINFALL is also by an sire that has solid numbers with first-time starters and turf runners. Her dam won on the lawn and two of her siblings are turf winners. UNTRUTHFUL SONNET can improve in her second start and should be considered for the exotics.

SIXTH RACE

THINKING OF MOM has lost as the chalk in three of her last four starts and she was particularly dull in

her latest. Blinkers on and the drop in class could get her over the top and maybe the price will be a bit better. HUAQUECHULA just missed in her first start this year and is eligible to move forward for a trainer who the past five years has a 18 percent strike rate with horses making their second start following a layoff. She should also have an honest pace to work with. Other than her second start, where she finished a close third, MARMALADE hasn’t had a notable break between races. She could be dangerous as a fresh horse. CONGRESSIONALSTORM edged HUAQUECHULA last time but the pace should be a little quicker here which could hinder her chances or repeating.

SEVENTH RACE

VENOM GIRL owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and appears to have the most speed. She could be gone if she breaks on top leaving from the inside post. PUSHME PULLYOU wasn’t a serious threat in a race she may have needed and it is possible she just doesn’t like it here. Nonetheless, she should move forward in this spot, won’t mind the added distance, and if she runs as well as she did in some of her races in New York last year she should be right there. GRAN CHAMA finished behind MISS VISCONTI and KICKN IN in her first start in almost three months and could improve in her second start back with Gaffalione taking the call.

EIGHTH RACE

NATRONA GIRL is a half-sister to a turf winner and has been working well enough for a trainer who the past five years has a 32 percent strike rate and $7.01 ROI with horses running on turf that were debuting in maiden claiming races. Nobody should be shocked if she comes out running. GO FORWARD runs for a tag for the first time and has enough speed to take advantage of her inside post. The horse that won her latest repeated in a first-level allowance race at Keeneland so this is a substantially easier spot. BAR LIBRE had a clean trip for the first time while finishing third to a nextout winner. DAR MOTIVOS finished a close third at this level in a key race two back and a similar effort puts her in the mix.

NINTH RACE

ZULU is undefeated sprinting and he’s coming off a solid runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Skip Away where he got bumped at the start. He could be sitting on a big effort in his third start this year, plus, with the cutback in distance and drop in class he could be a handful. TIGER BLOOD has improved as a 4-year-old and is on a roll with a couple of sharp wins at Tampa Bay. No luck in two starts over this surface but he had excuses both times. He looks like the main threat to ZULU if he’s not just a horse for the course. HY RIVERSIDE hasn’t done if for a while but he has an excellent record sprinting and shouldn’t mind the cutback in distance following a decent effort in the Skip Away. Sharp works on April 8 and 15 add to his appeal.

TENTH RACE

CHAMPAGNE PARTY doesn’t have a turf winner in her immediate family and the progeny of her sire are just 1 for 30 with horses running on turf for the first time. Nonetheless, she is taking a substantial drop for her second start, attracts the leading rider, and comes out of a barn that does very well with their turf runners. And, the blinkers go on. VENEZUELANTREASURE is coming off a couple of decent efforts at this level and could improve with the blinkers going on in her first start for Gonzalez. LITTLE QUEEN almost took them all the way last time and with the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure is an obvious threat to win what appears to be a wide-open event. LAKE OF THE ISLES couldn’t get past LITTLE QUEEN last time but she was making just her second start this year and could move up enough to be a serious factor in her third start back.