ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, LOB CITY

FIRST RACE

EL SUPER finished sixth last out, in front of only two rivals, but the effort was actually not bad. Making his first start since being gelded, he sped to the lead, set a strong pace, briefly fought back in the lane, and then surrendered the final eighth. Okay try, first start in two months. Although he faces a potentially challenging pace scenario in a field with other speed, he is likely to improve second start back. His races last fall are good enough for this level. RAINBOW SQUALL finished last of five in his initial try on turf, but this is the first time he will be ridden by the circuit’s top rider, Flavien Prat. ELEGANT STREET and RED CAR MAC finished two-three last time in the same race the top choice exits. ELEGANT STREET was 86-1, he made the lead at the eighth pole, and then got worn down. RED CAR MAC should get a good trip positioned right behind the speed and in front of the closers.

SECOND RACE

The term “best bet” refers in this case to “most probable winner” on the card. That is LOB CITY, a low-odds standout in this $12.5k claiming starter allowance. She won a similar starter two back, and last out finished a respectable second in an open $25k claiming turf route. Sharp mare in good form, with a tactical running style and speed figures that seem to tower over this field, she should win this five-runner field at a short price. MIZ GRAYCEE was no match for the top choice last out, but a bobble at the start may have compromised her to a degree. She is 3-for-7 on this racetrack, has bounced back previously from subpar efforts, and should be forwardly placed. PRIVATE TERRACE was claimed for $10k last out, a disappointing last-place finish. However, her dominating win two back for an $8k claim tag puts her in the hunt. FORTHENINETEEN and NAZARETH are stretch-out sprinter that probably do not want to run this far (one mile).

THIRD RACE

EL TOVAR is positioned spot to upset likely favorite ST. RENO. An 8-year-old with only 22 career starts, EL TOVAR actually ran okay last out, finishing fifth in a similar $16k claiming N3L sprint that was his first start in more than three months. He has enough tactical speed to be forwardly placed, he can finish, and trainer Richard Baltas switches to Rafael Bejarano. The post three months, Baltas and Bejarano are 5-for-11 in dirt sprints. ST. RENO is likely to start favored, based on relatively high recent figures and a daylight win last out in a $25k claiming N2L sprint. He probably will make the lead again, and could be gone. But he always promised a little more than he has delivered, and is being managed as if his connections would not mind him being claimed. Win or lose, his odds are likely to be lower than appropriate. CHEROKEE DYNASTY popped at 22-1 last out in a N2L. A deep closer, he will be rolling late. AJAC should be forwardly placed, and could keep the favorite ST. RENO company up front.

FOURTH RACE

One week after finishing third as the odds-on favorite in a maiden-20 sprint, MONTEREY SHALE stretches to a mile and a sixteenth first off the claim in another maiden-20. His route races last summer on turf were okay, his dirt form is okay, his rivals are not okay. Tough to trust an 0-for-11 maiden-claiming gelding that lost the three times he was favored, but options are limited in this field. He and Bejarano are the pair to beat with a front-running-pace-pressing trip. MY GOLDEN ONE drops to rock bottom, first start since summer. He has yet to hit the board in six starts, five on turf, but this bottom-level dirt route is his easier chance yet. RUN LIKE RHETT and ROYAL REBEL, three-four last out in a similar low-level route, will be clunking along late.

FIFTH RACE

ENDURING ERIN and JOSEPHINE’S MOMENT are tough to separate in this N1X/optional $40k claiming turf route. ENDURING ERIN has been facing better company (N2Xs, G2) in recent starts, without being embarrassed. She is reunited with Prat,

who has guided her to victory the last three times he rode her. JOSEPHINE’S MOMENT was claimed last out from a decisive $25k claiming win over race-2 selection Lob City. That race was turf; ‘MOMENT is proven on dirt, she wins more than her share (7-for-33 lifetime) and could fire right back for a stable that lately has been on a little bit of a roll. The past month, trainer John Brockelbank is 15-5-2-3. MINING DIAMONDS stretches to two turns for the high-percent jockey-trainer combo of Norberto Arroyo and Peter Miller. All they have done since last summer is win at a 32-percent clip (43 for 133). CEEME RUN WILD figures off her turf form, not sure if dirt is her cup of tea.

SIXTH RACE

Tough call between ESTRECHADA and PLACE DES VOSGES in this G3 turf marathon for fillies and mare. ESTRECHADA is a proven stayer returning to preferred footing; PLACE DES VOSGES is a sharp allowance mare moving up in class after knocking out successive turf wins at the N1X and N2X level. The runner-up finish by ESTRECHADA two starts back in a turf marathon won by next-out G2 winner Goodyearforroses tilts the scale in her favor. She was a long-distance specialist in South America, returning to her preferred trip after chasing Vale Dori and Finest City last out finishing fifth in a G1 on dirt. PLACE DES VOSGES crushed easier last out by four lengths, and is seeking her third straight. She added “cheater” blinkers two back, won both starts since, and continues to improve. Based on pedigree, a mile and a half should be just fine. EVO CAMPO probably needed her last start, fifth in a G2 while racing for the first time since last June. Second start back, improvement is likely. DRESSED TO A T will pick them up late.

SEVENTH RACE

LI’L GRAZEN showed promise last fall finishing third in a fast, productive maiden race won by still-unbeaten stakes winner Sircat Sally. LI’L GRAZEN returns to the races with a series of sharp workouts that suggest she is ready to fire first start back. CANDY RULER finished a promising third in her career debut, rallying from behind a slow pace to miss by two lengths. She could go favored in this Cal-bred maiden sprint, and is likely to improve with a clean takeoff. ZILLINDA has an upset chance second time out. She worked well into her debut, but the race was on turf and she broke dead last. Looks like she trained well since then, switches to dirt, and has knockout potential with a race under her belt.

EIGHTH RACE

TEXAS TWO STEP returns to his preferred sprint trip after dueling and tiring to third at one mile. His runner-up finish two starts back in a similar N2X sprint would make him tough to beat. RANSOM THE MOON has posted a series of sharp workouts for his California debut. A turf-synthetic specialist at Woodbine, he makes his first local start with fast workouts that are atypical from a Phil D’Amato trainee. Based on his drills, expect a top effort first start back. GRAZEN SKY will be rolling late, while MR. OPPORTUNIST has enough speed to keep the top choice honest on the front end.

NINTH RACE

A turf route scramble for maidens ends the week; AMPLE SUFFICIENCY might be the right choice despite his “career-maiden” status overseas. He finished in the money all six starts against maidens; his only off-the-board finish was in a Group 2. First start in the U.S. for Dan Blacker, adding Lasix and removing blinkers, the colt looks spotted for a top effort. PAVELSKI was gelded since an okay third last out in a downhill sprint. One mile should be within reach; one gets the feeling he has more ability than he has shown so far in four starts. FORTUNE OF WAR took advantage of a collapsing pace to finish second by a length last out; he showed two back he can be positioned closer to the front. Obvious contender.