ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, MIZZING FRAZIER

FIRST RACE

GOLD HAWK rates a narrow edge in a puzzling claiming race in which five of the six entries come off rear-half finishes...so the advice is to look for those coming off forgivable failures. GOLD HAWK and BOLD SHOT are two such types. The former added blinkers last out and didn’t respond, but the shades are now yanked off, and the latter raced in a 1 3/4-mile marathon last out and hit the brakes. If one excuses those failures, they top two figure prominently in this weak race...giving a slight edge to ‘HAWK over ‘SHOT due to having a little more speed - he can stalk as opposed to being a deep closer. HELLO PEOPLE is the only horse coming off a competitive race, having won a conditioned nickel claimer last out at Turfway. That noted, five of his six finishes in the exacta have come when racing on either turf or synthetic - suggesting regression possible with the surface switch to dirt.

SECOND RACE

BE PLAYFUL looms a short-priced standout based on recent form and Beyer Speed Figures. She has been second in four consecutive races while earning Beyers in the 83-84 range in her last three. ZETA ZODY beat the top choice at Churchill last fall, but has been outrun in two starts at Fair Grounds since for a different barn after being claimed. Perhaps she didn’t care for the Fair Grounds course; 7 for 18 on turf. REIMBURSE should appreciate being dropped in class from a second-level allowance into a $40,000 claimer, but just once in her 13-race career has she run higher than a 76 Beyer, posting an 81 in a race last summer at Gulfstream.

THIRD RACE

ANNATHELA has a third and two seconds in three starts in first-level allowances, and has shown a liking for the Churchill main track, having recorded her lone victory here; likely to sit a favorable stalking trip behind the speed. FIVE STAR FACTOR is a 3-year-old facing older mares, but in the first-level allowance ranks, a type of condition the better older horses have long since cleared, she isn’t at a disadvantage; another with a win at Churchill and coming off a second at Keeneland in which she was beaten just a head. IVY BELL posted the top last-race Beyer, a 79, in crossing the wire first in a N2L allowance at Churchill Nov. 2, only to be eventually DQed for a positive test; possesses talent but faces speed to run with her and could be disadvantaged by not having raced.

FOURTH RACE

The speedy BOTTLE WALK romped for $20,000 last month at Keeneland and was claimed by a sharp claiming trainer in Angel Montano; should transfer her form to Churchill, a surface over which she has a win and a second in two local starts. ANYTHING YOU CAN DO, in contrast, lacks speed and is being cut back from routes to a sprint; respectable Beyers but 20-1-4-4 record suggests she is best used in the 2-3 positions in the betting. Inexperienced DOLL FACE showed vast improvement in crushing maiden $30,000 claimers by over 10 lengths in her second race on Apr. 12 at Keeneland. As one of several speed horses in the lineup, drawing outside is a positive.

FIFTH RACE

PITCH COUNT was scratched from a maiden $50,000, 1 1/16-mile race in Saturday night to go in this maiden $40,000 at a mile; seems like a good move, facing a smidge easier and going a bit shorter distance - since he has been known to hang in two-turn races. SUMMER O FIFTYFOUR ran a close third in a blanket finish in am maiden $450,000 race at Keeneland Apr. 7 despite some early trouble into the first turn. That said, it was not a fast race - and his 70 Beyer doesn’t match up next to the better numbers from PITCH COUNT. LONG ON LUCK seems likely to improve off a seventh-place finish first out; adds blinkers for his second start.